International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Energy Security Through Dialogue The role of the IEF Noé van Hulst Secretary General International Energy Forum (IEF) WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Main Global Energy Trends The IEF Rome Consensus… World Energy Fossil Fuels Increasing Demand Grows Dominate the Interdependence Significantly Energy Mix WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Oil Reserves & Production Middle East (Reserves at end 2008, Production for 2008) Country Reserves (Gbbl) Production (Mbd) Rank World 1258.0 81.8 1 Saudi Arabia 264.1 10.8 2 Iran 137.6 4.3 3 Iraq 115.0 2.4 Volume Share Middle East Reserves 754.1 Gbbl 60 % Production 26.2 Mbd 32% Imports from the Rank Volume (Mbd) Share Middle East 1 Asia 13.3 63 % 2 Europe 2.6 19 % 3 USA 2.4 19 % BP Statistical Review WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Spare Capacity An Important factor in Global Oil Security August 2009 Global Oil Supply OPEC (Crude Oil) Saudi Arabia (Crude Oil) 85 mbd 29 mbd 8.2 mbd Spare Capacity 6.6 mbd 3.4 mbd In addition IEA countries hold emergency oil reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports of the previous year. IEA Monthly Oil Market Report, September 2009 WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Gas Reserves & Production Middle East (Reserves at end 2008 – Production for 2008) Rank Country Reserves (tcm) Production (bcm) World 185.0 3065.6 1 Russia 43.3 601.7 2 Iran 29.6 116.3 3 Qatar 25.5 76.6 Volume Share (%) Middle East Reserves 75.9 tcm 41 % Production 381.1 bcm 12 % BP Statistical Review WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF IEF covers key consuming & producing countries including those outside IEA and OPEC More than 90% of Global Oil & Gas Supply and Demand… WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Mission of IEF What? Enhance and deepen global Promote more stable and consumer-producer dialogue transparent energy markets How? Practical ways to improve: High-level platforms involving • Market transparency in oil & gas governments and industry • Investment conditions • Sustainability WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
Key Results from 11 th IEF – Rome, April 2008 International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Investment Transparency Sustainability 1 st NOC - IOC Forum 1 st IEF – IGU Ministerial IEF / IFP Technology Platforms (Mar 2009) Gas Forum (Nov 2008) Symposium (Dec 2008) for Dialogue 3 rd Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable (Apr 2009) Human Resources CCS Symposium Symposium (Apr 2009) (Sep 2009) 2 nd NOC – IOC Forum 2 nd IEF - IGU Gas Forum (2011) (Nov 2010) Energy Poverty Symposium (Dec 2009) Unpacking Uncertainties Research Report (2009-2010) & Analysis Biofuels Assessment Report (Q4 2009) Expert Group Report on Strengthening IEF Dialogue & Reducing Volatility (Q4 2009) Assess Extension to Natural Gas Data Transparency (JODI) (Fall 2009) Assess Extension to 7 th JODI Conference Annual Data (Jun 2009) (Fall 2009) JODI Training Workshops (Incl. Caspian Nov 2009) Input to 12 th IEF Ministerial in Mexico, 29 – 31 March 2010 WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF 1st IEF - IGU Ministerial Gas Forum November 2008 • Gas markets globalizing through LNG • Encourage cross-investment, IOC - NOC co-operation, R&D • Consider Natural Gas Data Initiative for transparency • Strengthen global gas dialogue: 2 nd IEF/IGU Ministerial Gas Forum – Qatar November 2010 WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF IEF - IFP Symposium December 2008 • Large technological potential in lifting recovery rates • CCS/EOR double-win option • CCS promising but obstacles must be tackled ASAP • Dialogue in IEF to help harvest CCS potential WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF 1 st NOC – IOC Forum March 2009 • Maintain investment: almost $500 billion per annum needed in oil & gas up to 2030 • Learn from long-term successful NOC-IOC partnerships (share skills, develop local infrastructure) • Encourage cross-investment: horizontal and vertical NOC-IOC partnerships • 2 nd NOC-IOC Forum hosted by TOTAL (2011) WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF HR Crunch – Symposium April 2009 • 50% of skilled workforce to retire in next 10 years • Maintain investment in HR, training and R&D • Need to improve perception/image of Industry • General public, potential working population, politicians • Create “Technical Heroes” • Actively build trust and belief in sustainability WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Upcoming IEF Events & Reports 2009 • Symposia on CCS and Energy Poverty • Report - Unpacking Uncertainty • Report – Biofuels Assessment • Report – Expert Group recommendations for strengthening IEF Dialogue & reducing market volatility WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Work of Expert Group Underway • Follow-up on London Energy Meeting (December 2008) • High-Level Steering Group to oversee work of Expert Group Algeria, France, Germany, Japan, Kuwait, Mexico, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (Chair), UK (co-chair), USA • Independent Expert Group – key questions: • How to enhance architecture of the Producer-Consumer Dialogue through the IEF? • How to reduce energy market volatility, including linkages between financial and energy markets? • Strongly supported by G8 • Recommendations discussed at IEF Ministerial Cancun, Mexico 29-31 March 2010 WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF JODI performance in 2008 improving Number of Smiley Faces ☺ Global Participation of 97 countries Improvement (%) 2008 2007 2008 Jul-Dec/2007 Jul- Jul-Dec Jul-Dec Dec Submission ☺ 82 66 24.2% Timeliness ☺ 54 52 3.8% Completeness ☺ 64 56 14.3% Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF IEF Secretariat’s Wish List All countries present three smiley JODI-faces before year-end 2009 Submit annual data upon request to help build new investment database …”Actions achieve more than words” (Euripides) WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF Key Messages • More Oil & Gas Needed Even With Higher Efficiency • Growing Interdependence of Consumers & Producers • Achieve Tangible Results in Improving Investment, Transparency & Sustainability towards Mexico 2010 • IEF’s Role Growing in Global Energy Dialogue WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE
International Energy Forum Energy Security Through Dialogue IEF WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA WW WWW.I CLINGENDAEL, 21 SEPTEMBER 2009, THE HAGUE WWW.JODIDATA.O .IEF EFS.OR .ORG.SA .ORG
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