Energy Scenarios to 2040: What it Takes to Reach INDCs and Beyond April 2016
Enerdata: a global energy intelligence company Independent energy research & consulting company since 1991 • Spin-off of CNRS research center • Expert in analysis and forecasting of global energy & climate issues • In-house and globally recognized databases and forecasting models • Headquartered in the Grenoble (French Alps) research cluster • Offices in Paris, London and Singapore + network of partners WW • Global reach : clients in Europe, Asia, Americas, Africa • Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 2
EnerFuture workshop Introduction Methodology and scenarios overview Ener-Blue INDCs based scenario Ener-Green 2°C max. increase scenario Supply Focus on China Focus on EU-28 Conclusions Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 3
Methodology and scenarios overview Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion EnerFuture: global energy scenarios to 2040 Alternative assumptions for key drivers : resources, climate and energy policies, available technological options … 2040 ? POLES Model Demand Global & regional dynamics, fuel With identical mix, efficiency… macro- Supply & Prices economic Today Availability, hypothesis: self-sufficiency, population, trade, bills … GDP growth… Sustainability CO 2 emissions… … allows us to explore different pathways for energy markets Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 5
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion Description of the EnerFuture scenarios Ener-Brown Ener-Blue Ener-Green CLIMATE & ENERGY POLICIES 2030 INDCs targets achieved Reinforcement trend INDCs targets not reached CO 2 emissions growth slow- INDCs targets regularly Soaring CO 2 emissions down reviewed upwards +5-6°C temperature increase +3-4°C temperature increase +1.5-2°C temperature increase ENERGY DEMAND Increase in developing Global stabilization Limited improvement on countries energy intensity Ambitious energy efficiency Stable in OECD policies High growth in developing countries Controlled through INDCs Regular updates of efficiency Growth in OECD too targets ENERGY SUPPLY & PRICES Tensions on available Fossil fuel subsidies phase-out Fossil fuels renaissance resources Strong development of Lower energy prices Increasing energy prices renewables Strong fossil fuel Diversification towards Price increase reflect policies technological improvement renewables and CO 2 constraints Continued efforts on renewables Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 6
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion Key energy indicators by scenario Share fossil fuels in energy mix Primary demand 100% 20000 18000 80% 16000 60% Mtoe % 14000 40% 12000 20% 10000 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 Energy intensity GHG emissions level 100 60 toe/M$(14) 80 50 GtCO2eq 60 40 40 30 20 20 2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: EnerFuture Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 8
Ener-Blue: key outputs based on INDCs’ targets achievement Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion Expected economic recovery will drive up energy consumption… Population GDP Energy demand 250 20 10 9 18 8 200 16 7 14 Energy Demand (Gtoe) Population (billion) 6 GDP (T$05ppp) 150 12 5 10 + 36 % x 3.7 + 70 % 4 8 100 3 6 2 4 50 x 1.8 1 2 -3 % + 12 % 0 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD NOECD World CAGR (%) Source: UN World Population Source: IMF outlook (2014 – 2020) Source: EnerFuture Prospects (2015 Revision) CEPII Baseline (2021 – 2040) Comparison base year: 2010 Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 12
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion … pulled by developing countries, when OECD demand stabilizes. +4,0 Gtoe (+30%) Japan EU-28 USA OECD S. Korea EU-28 30 % Rest OECD USA Japan S.Korea Rest OECD OECD India India China 40% Non- OECD China Russia Brazil 70% Non- Brazil OECD Russia 60% Rest Non-OECD Rest Non-OECD 2014 (13.3 Gtoe) 2040 (17.3 Gtoe) Source: EnerFuture, Ener-Blue scenario Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 13
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion Fossil fuels’ domination decreases from 80% to 70% of the mix… Primary demand Non-OECD, Ener-Blue Primary demand OECD, Ener-Blue 14000 14000 Oth. 12000 12000 renewables Biomass 10000 10000 and wastes 8000 8000 Nuclear Mtoe Mtoe 6000 6000 Coal 4000 4000 Gas 2000 2000 Oil 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Share 75% 78% 80% 73% fossil 83% 62% fuels … impacted by the high increase in renewables sources. Source: EnerFuture, Ener-Blue scenario Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 14
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion INDCs are key targets to ensure global GHG emissions reductions … Reduction efforts of CO 2 intensity* in G20 , INDC target recalculated vs 1990 min.-40% GHG emissions Russia by 2030 vs 1990 -25% to -30% EU-28 GHG emissions by 2030 vs 1990 0 % USA China -26% to -28% -60% to -65% GHG emissions 20 % (CO 2 intensity) by 2025 vs 2005 by 2030 vs 2005 India 40 % -33% to -35% (carbon intensity) Brazil by 2030 vs 2005 60 % -43% GHG emissions by 2030 vs BaU 80 % … but ambitions remain different * CO 2 intensity of GDP: ratio of CO 2 emissions to GDP, excl. LULUCF depending on the countries. Source: UNFCCC, submitted INDCs G20 represent ~85% of GHG global emissions Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 16
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion In Non-OECD countries, energy intensity is more than halved over 2010- 2040… Energy intensity 2010-2040, Ener-Blue 180 China 160 USA 140 Energy Intensity (toe/M$05) EU-28 India 120 Non-OECD 100 OECD 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 … and converges toward OECD countries’ levels. Source: EnerFuture, Ener-Blue scenario Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 18
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion INDCs lead to a growing decoupling between GHG emissions and GDP, mostly in OECD… GDP & CO 2 per cap. in 2010 and 2030, Ener-Blue 18 S. Korea Saudi Arabia 2010 kg CO2 per capita (excl. LULUCF) 16 Canada 2030 0 2 14 Australia Russia Developed 12 countries USA China 10 8 Japan Developing South Af. 6 countries World EU-28 Turkey 4 Mexico India 2 Brazil 0 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 GDP per capita ($2005) …however these improvements are not sufficient to cope with global climate challenges. Source: EnerFuture, Ener-Blue scenario Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 19
Ener-Green key outputs from COP21 INDCs to a 2°C ambition Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion GHG emissions reductions implied by INDCs are not sufficient to reach the 2 ° C target … Global GHG emissions* and path to 2100 GHG emissions in China* 20 60 15 +5-6 ° C 50 GtCO 2 eq 10 +3-4 ° C 40 GtCO 2 eq 5 0 30 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 +1.5-2 ° C 20 GHG emissions in EU-28* 8 INDC: 40.1 to 46.7 GtCO2eq in 2030 10 6 GtCO 2 eq 0 4 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2 INDC Ener-Brown Ener-Green Ener-Blue 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: UNFCCC, submitted INDCs and EnerFuture GHG emissions in USA* 8 … Strengthened efforts and policies are 6 GtCO 2 eq necessary to ensure GHG emissions 4 compatible with the UN 2°C goal. 2 . 0 * excl. LULUCF 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 21
Introduction | Ener-Blue | Ener-Green | Supply | China | EU-28 | Conclusion 70% of additional emissions reduction should come from Non-OECD 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 % reduction, cum. 2010-2040 50 OECD Ener-Blue 5% 11 GtCO 2 eq EU-28 45 Non-OECD 12% 27 GtCO 2 eq USA 40 28% GtCO2 eq 11% 26 GtCO 2 eq Rest OECD 35 1% 3 GtCO 2 eq Brazil 9% 22 GtCO 2 eq 72% India 30 30% 70 GtCO 2 eq Rest Non-OECD 25 32% 75 GtCO 2 eq China Ener-Green 20 15 Source: EnerFuture, Ener-Blue and Ener-Green scenarios … and China would represent ~1/3 of the global additional efforts to be made to reach the +2°C objective. Understanding our Energy Future - April 2016 23
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