Energy is about a lot Important to red educe t the e load (use l e les ess ene nergy) be before t the he e ene nergy s suppl upply more than supply: syst ystem c can wo work we well! Integrating Energy Efficiency http://www.bajiroo.com/dont-overload-a- into Demand Response and donkey-cart-16-funny-photos Distributed Energy Systems 29 April 2020 Alan Pears AM Fellow, Climate and Energy College University of Melbourne Senior Industry Fellow RMIT Thanks to Soren Hermansen from Samso, Denmark for the picture idea
Opportunity to save: 88% waste in delivery of useful services! Useful <12% Energy Input >95% Fossil Fuel Waste 88%!
Energy Efficiency, the International Energy Agency’s ‘first fuel’ • Potential: commercially available, cost-effective technologies exist for energy intensity improvement rate of 3%, more than double today • Reduces physical scale and capital costs of new energy supply and storage investment • Enhances resilience, cuts peak energy demand • Underpins much innovation, productivity improvement • Delivers multiple financial, social and environmental benefits
International comparisons of countries: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy Energy Efficiency Scorecard Rankings over time: YEAR AUSTRALIA 2014 10/16 2016 16/23 2018 18/25 Rankings by World Economic Forum on energy transition (https://www.weforum.org/reports/fostering-effective- energy-transition-2019 ) rate Australia 43 rd out of 115 countries, among the lowest of developed countries
Australian t Aus track r rec ecord: primary energy reduction from EE and RE Australia trends in energy intensity (efficiency improvement) and Energy productivity/efficiency renewable energy (primary energy DoEE 2019 Tables B and C - improvement in Australia has adjusted so non-thermal electricity is equivalent to primary fossil fuel replaced (BP approach)) Petajoules/year delivered 7 to 9 times as much 32% of 2017-18 primary energy 10,000 reduction in primary energy use as saved relative to 1990 intensity 9,000 renewable energy – and we haven’t Trend at 2001 fixed energy intensity 8,000 even been trying on EE/EP! Trend at 1990 fixed energy intensity 7,000 RELATIVE IMPACT PJ/year 6,000 24% saved in 2017-18 1990 2001 5,000 relative to 2001 EE saving from base year 2,987 2,065 intensity 4,000 RE growth from base year adj Trend at actual energy intensity to BP approach 323.7 273.8 3,000 3.4% reduced Total renewable energy with non-thermal No of times larger EE/RE 9.2 7.5 2,000 relative to 1990 electricity adjusted to include avoided fossil NOTE: I use BP World Review approach: each unit of intensity 1,000 fuel electricity generation non-thermal renewable electricity is equivalent to amount of fossil fuel displaced from electricity generation (factor 3.1 to 2.9). IEA and DoEE treat each 1989-90 1993-94 1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14 2017-18 unit of non-thermal RE as 1 unit of primary energy. The Energy consumption adj for BP RE Energy at 1990 intensity adj for BP RE IEA/DoEE approach gives EP/EE 18 to 20 times the Energy at 2001 intensity adj for BP RE Renewables using BP Primary Approach impact of renewable energy Renewable supply at 1989-90 level
ELE LECTR TRICI CITY TY: R Risk f for supply-si side i de inves estors Disruptive changes in demand and supply, need to address climate change. We must understand and manage long-term demand side issues much better RECENT HISTORY Australian electricity ‘High’ scenario more forecasts have been revised than 50% above ‘low’ down most years scenario Electric vehicles Detailed data UNCERTAIN FUTURE DEMAND not available And increasing risk for investors in From Australian Energy Market Operator Electricity energy supply infrastructure Statement of Opportunities 2018 From Australian Energy Market Operator Electricity Statement of Opportunities 2019
Wholesale + network value of energy AND energy savings varies over time (minutes, hours, days, seasons and years ). Price and value are very imperfectly reflected in retail tariffs Why does an industry that invests in assets with 30-50 year lives focus so little attention on demand trends and drivers? Whose job is it to strategically manage long-term demand? And deliver on the National Electricity Objective of long-term benefit to consumers on demand-side?
Emerging trends of scale and timing of demand and steep ramping of dispatchable supply on hot, cold and low demand days? How do EE, DM, DR help? https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/SA_Advisory/2019/2019-South-Australian-Electricity-Report.pdf p.26 – source for ‘low load day’ Low load high solar day Windy winter day Source: AEMO 2018 | AEMO observations: Off- Operational and market challenges to Interconnector Rooftop PV LEDs peak reliability and security in the NEM import Rev cycle Heat pump HW Rooftop PV a/c HW Building Off- Heat pump LEDs Appliances peak HW Thermal generators Rev cycle HW a/c Solar farms Wind Building Wind Interconnector export Ramping Scheduled load Scheduled load
En Ener ergy effi ficiency, c clea ean en ener ergy, s storage a and s smarts ts c compete a and c complement i in all stages a and markets ts a across el elec ectr tricity ty a and o other en ener ergy. ‘Waste’ can be recovered, utilised Service delivered Consumer cost of useful service On-site energy delivered - 15c to Other inputs, consuming equipment $5+/kWh service eg chemicals, (EE) Driven by many water different markets Retail electricity On-site infrastructure and market price – 10-50 G (eg meter, analysis, intermediaries with c/kWh E wires, pipes) (EE) little interest in S And N energy METER T portable E Deliver to consumer O energy R (pipeline, ship, truck, R storage – eg A power line etc) (EE) A Electric T G Vehicles I Conversion (eg refine, Wholesale energy price – eg E O generate electricity) (EE) coal-fired electricity at 5- N 10c/kWh ($50-100/MWh) Fuel price – eg coal at Transport (EE) $30/tonne= 0.11 c/MJ EE=Energy Efficiency or 0.4c/kWh heat Mine/Harvest (EE)
Australian residential summer and winter peak electricity demand Targeted energy (MW) by activity and state at times of system peaks, 2015 efficiency can (EnergyConsult 2015) Totals 21,320 MW (S) and 19,086 MW (W) cut peak 7000 Energy efficiency measures can be targeted at activities that contribute to peak demand. demand Note that heat from some activities can increase cooling demand and reduce heating demand. 6000 In some states, a large proportion of space heating and cooking is supplied by gas and/or wood – switching to electricity has implications for demand profile and consumption 5000 4000 In uncertain times, 3000 incremental, 2000 modular solutions have 1000 lower risk 0 NSW S NSW ACT S ACT W NT S NT W QLD S QLD W SA S SA W TAS S TAS W VIC S VIC W WA S WA W W Cook Light H&C HW Apps
Why have few programs targeted the highest consumers? Retailers and network operators know who they are Office buildings: energy intensity of Australian office base buildings – Area weighted average 532 MJ/m2: wide variation (p.36 Fig 5.3 Pitt&Sherry 2012) m 2 NLA Residential customers 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Energy Intensity (MJ/m2.a)
Residential: Technology transformation to cut energy use (Based on Pears presentation to Sydney A2SE Workshop, April 2014, updated 2019, 2014 and 2019 stock energy use based on data from 2015 Residential Baseline Study Worksheets www.energyrating.gov.au ) Priorities: Indicative annual electricity use in a 2-3 person all-electric home – kilowatt- • Identify and replace hours/year for major activities inefficient and old 3500 appliances and equipment 3000 with ‘best available’ Building Stronger MEPS to remove • + 2500 Many households are also installing poor performers from equipment market+ stronger incentives on-site and local renewable energy 2000 • Build-in smart diagnostics so generation, smart management equipment can alert use to 1500 systems and storage emerging problems • Build-in capacity to ‘talk’ to 1000 home management systems • Support ongoing RD&D and 500 supplier, sales staff training 0 Identify and upgrade poor • buildings, drive 8 star+ performance in new homes with focus on summer 2014 STOCK 2019 STOCK BEST NOW performance
Digital Transformation underpins energy/ resource Other data efficiency and productivity sources Source: Transforming Energy Productivity in Manufacturing Australian Alliance for Interconnection within a site, to Energy Productivity (2018) p.47 information sources, other businesses and consumers can help to capture the ‘prizes’ firms Informed, empowered people and good practices value, and support different production and business models This facilitates energy productivity improvement – EE/EP EP p provides es to tools a and mec echanisms to to d deliver b busines ess producti tivity ty a and v value – the b e big g ‘priz izes’ d decis ision ion-maker ers v value
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