Energy efficiency trends in EU Results from ODYSSEE project Carine Sebi, ENERDATA July 2016
About Enerdata: a global energy intelligence company Independent research company since 1991 International team of experienced analysts & economists in Global energy market analysis & modelling Energy efficiency & demand Leveraging globally recognized databases & forecasting models Headquartered in the Grenoble (French Alps) with offices in Paris and Singapore www.enerdata.net Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 2
About ODYSSEE-MUR Project supported by a special programme of the European Commission called H2020 and coordinated by ADEME, the French Energy Environment and Efficiency Agency ; The project covers 31 countries (28 EU Member States + Norway, Serbia and Switzerland), mainly energy efficiency agencies or Ministries (or their representatives); Main objectives : Evaluate and compare energy efficiency progress by sector by country and for the EU as a whole, and relate the progress to the observed trend in energy consumption; Evaluate energy efficiency policy measures. Project relying on two data bases, covering 31 countries and the EU: The ODYSSEE data base on energy efficiency indicators The MURE database on all policy measures implemented by sector, and their impact evaluation whenever available : www.odyssee-mure.eu Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 3
The following analysis is based on the The 2015 synthesis 2015 ODYSSEE MURE synthesis brochure with brochure revised data up to 2014 The ODYSSEE data tools http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/ http://www.odyssee- mure.eu/publications/br/energy- efficiency-trends-policies-in-europe.html Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 4
Content • Industry • Transport • Households • Synthesis Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 5
Industry Slowdown in energy savings since 2007 Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016
Since 2007, strong decline of the industry energy consumption… Industrial energy consumption roughly stable at EU level between 2000 and 2007. Strong reduction of energy use since 2007 in the countries the most struck by the economic crisis (e.g. Spain, Italy). • As a result, industrial consumption was in 2014 18% below its 2000 level and only represented 25 % of the energy used by final consumers (29% in 2000). Trends in industrial energy consumption EU total consumption breakdown EU & main countries 2% 2014 1% 2% 15% 25% 0% -1% 12% 29% %/year -2% -3% 2000 26% -4% 31% 2000-2007 2007-2014 27% -5% -6% 32% EU Italy Spain UK France Netherlands Finland Sweden Poland Germany Industry Transport Residential Tertiary Agriculture Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 7
…mainly explained by a decrease in the activity of industry Drivers of the energy consumption of industry after and before the crisis (EU) 50 2000-2007 2007-2014 40 Since 2007 the reduction of 30 activity is the main driver of 20 the decrease of consumption (-51 Mtoe); 10 Mtoe 0 Energy savings had a much -10 lower impact since 2007 (2,6 -20 Mtoe/yr compared to 6,4 -30 Mtoe/yr over 2000-2007). -40 -50 Structural effects have low impacts on the variation of -60 consumption. Variation of industry consumption Activity Structure Energy savings Other Other effects: mainly "negative" savings due to inefficient operations in industry Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 8
Since 2007, the energy savings in industry have reduced by half… In 2014, cumulated energy savings since 2000 reached around 62 Mtoe : without energy efficiency improvement, energy consumption would have been higher by 62 Mtoe. The annual volume of energy savings in industry has more than halved since 2007 from an average of 7,6 Mtoe/year to 2,5 Mtoe/year. Energy savings in industry (EU) 10 70 Annual energy savings (Mtoe/year) Cumulted energy savings (Mtoe) 60 8 50 6 40 30 4 20 2 10 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Only >0 savings Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 9 Source: ODYSSEE
… because of a lower progress of EE improvements in some branches On average, energy efficiency has improved by 0.9%/year since 2007 compared to 1.9%/year before (1.4%/year on average since 2000 or 17% compared to 2000 level). Slower energy efficiency progress since 2007 due to lower progress in some branches and even no more energy efficiency improvement for others because of the recession (e.g. cement, machinery, paper). On the opposite, greater progress in chemicals and transport vehicles. Energy efficiency trends in industry (EU) 100 95 90 Base 100 = 2000 85 80 75 70 65 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Chemicals Steel Cement Paper Food Machinery Transport vehicles Total Energy efficiency measured with ODEX indicator based on trends in specific consumption per ton for steel ,cement and paper; consumption per IPI for other branches. Index are expressed in 3 year-moving average to avoid short-term fluctuations. Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 10
Transport Noteworthy energy efficiency improvements since a decade mainly for cars and air transport Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016
Decrease of the transport energy consumption since 2007 Over the period 2000-2007, increasing energy consumption in most countries (+1.5%/year for the EU as a whole), except Germany and low growth in France and UK. Decreasing trend of transport energy consumption between 2007 and 2013 at EU level (-1.6%/year from 2007 to 2013), due to a stable or decreasing consumption in the largest EU countries: -4.6%/year in Spain, -2.8%/year in Italy and -1.8%/year in UK. Energy consumption trends in transport EU & main countries 100 400 90 350 80 300 70 250 Mtoe, at EU level 60 Mtoe, at country level 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Germany France UK Italy Spain Poland EU Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 12 Sources: ODYSSEE and Eurostat
The energy savings in transport offset by the activity effect before 2007 The slight increase in energy consumption of transport between 2000 and 2014 is due to the fact that energy savings (around 60 Mtoe) balanced the effect of the growth in traffic of passengers or goods (almost +50 Mtoe). Since 2007, the decreasing energy consumption in transport is mainly due to energy savings (29 Mtoe) with no more activity effect due to the traffic slowdown. Decomposition of consumption variation of transport : EU (2000-2014) 70 50 30 10 Mtoe -10 -30 -50 -70 2000-2014 2000-2007 2007-2014 Variation consumption Activity Energy savings Modal shift Other Air transport included Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 13 Source: ODYSSEE
Greater energy efficiency improvements in cars and air transport The energy efficiency of transport improved by 1.1%/year in the EU since 2000 (or 15% compared to 2000 level). Greater progress was achieved for both cars and airplanes. Energy efficiency progress has slowed down for trucks and light vehicles since 2007 : the fall down in freight traffic by road (- 1,6%/year since 2007) led to a less efficient operation of trucks sharp decrease in load factors (trucks less loaded and increased empty running). Energy efficiency trends for transport in the EU 100 95 90 2000=100 85 80 75 70 65 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Total Cars Trucks & light vehicles Air transport Energy efficiency calculated from trend in ODEX indicator calculated on 7 modes: cars (litres/km), trucks & light vehicles (toe per tkm), air (toe per passenger); rail ,water (toe/ tkm); motorcycles, buses (toe/vehicle). Index are expressed in 3 year-moving average to avoid short-term fluctuations. 2014 estimates Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 14 Source: ODYSSEE
Less energy savings since the economic recession for transport In 2014, energy savings in transport reached around 60 Mtoe compared to 2000: without energy efficiency improvement, the energy consumption would have been 60 Mtoe higher Slowdown in energy savings since 2009, mainly due to no more progress for goods transport as a consequence of the economic recession. Energy savings in transport (EU) 10 70 Cumulated energy savings (Mtoe) Annual variatoin of energy savings 60 8 50 (Mtoe/year) 6 40 30 4 20 2 10 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Air transport included Energy efficiency trends in EU – July 2016 15 Source: ODYSSEE
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