Employment, Workforce, and Degree Production Goals Presented to: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Employment, Workforce, and Degree Production Goals Presented to: Higher Education Coordinating Commission November 2014

Goa oal for or t tod oday: Present data and analysis to further HECC’s goal-setting efforts for Oregon’s postsecondary institutions.

Overview • Supply: Moving towards 40-40-20 • Demand: Employer need for educated workers • Supply & Demand: Linking education to employer needs • Conclusions and recommendations • Data and analysis: – Supply: ECONorthwest analysis of IPEDS and ACS data – Demand: ECONorthwest analysis of OED occupational projections – Conclusions and recommendations: ECONorthwest

Supply: Moving t towar ards s 40-40-20

The “gap” in 2012 • Young adults (25-34): Goal – 124,000 Associate’s/certs. 20% 40% 40% (2025) – 49,000 Bachelor’s or better • Older adults (35-64): Adults – 356,000 Associate’s/certs. 10% 42% 17% 31% 25-34 – 140,000 Bachelor’s or better • Total: Adults – 480,000 Associate’s/certs. 9% 43% 17% 31% 35-64 – 189,000 Bachelor’s or better Less than HS High school completer Associate's or certificate Bachelor's or better

Closing the gap • Degree production in Oregon • Net migration • Demographics

Degree production in Oregon (2012) 19,540 4,404 11,744 10,068 1,110 3,531 15,136 5,437 10,634 2,055 6,537 3,382 Certificates Associate's Bachelor's Advanced Public Private

Production and net migration adults 25-64 (2012) 19,540 11,744 10,068 5,437 4,005 3,174 1,826 1,719 Certificates Associate's Bachelor's Advanced Production Net migration

Demographics: Attainment of adults who turned 65 (2012) Largely for context: • Retirement age Some college 14,730 increasing • Labor force Associate's 3,066 participation varies by attainment • Attainment overall Bachelor's 8,504 similar to that for younger workers • Limited data on Advanced 8,694 certificates.

40-40-20 for young adults • ~50,000 individuals in each age cohort 19,540 • Eventual need per cohort: 17,181 – ~20,000 Associate’s or certificates – ~20,000 BAs • 2012 degree production overall is close to these targets Associates+ Bachelor's certificates

Dema Demand: Employer need for educated wo work rkers

Projected need for employees 2012-2017 2017 Projected 762,151 354,898 184,308 325,244 184,785 1,811,386 employment 2012 708,382 326,097 173,208 302,396 173,237 1,683,320 Employment High school, less than HS, Post-secondary training Associate's degree Bachelor's Advanced or unclassified

Supply & Deman and: Linking education to emp employer er need eeds

Will t there b be e enough gh job obs? s? • Adjusted five-year 61,122 production as a share 50,352 50,340 of projected need: 47,360 46,389 – Certificates: 40% – Associates: 173% 29,491 26,794 24,738 – Bachelor’s: 94% – Advanced: 171% • However… Certificate Associate's Bachelor's Advanced Adjusted production projection 2012-2017 Projected openings by education level

Some important considerations • Supply: – Degree production – Migration – Demographics – Labor force participation • Demand: – Changing economy – Changing job requirements – Trends in retirement

OED Occupational prioritization model • Incorporates information about: – Wages – Anticipated immigration – Existing training pipeline – Perceived shortages in occupational supply • Designed to inform postsecondary institutions and workforce boards target training resources

Occupati ations requiring p posts tsecon ondary t y training or higher w with th th the mos ost p proj ojected op openings Rank in total Total openings Occupation Competitive education level openings 2012-2017 1 Office Clerks, General 5,188 Post-secondary training 2 Registered Nurses 4,787 Bachelor's 3 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 3,533 Post-secondary training 4 General and Operations Managers 3,470 Bachelor's 5 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 3,346 Associate's 6 Secretaries and Administrative Assistant 3,015 Associate's 7 Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Reps. Except Tech./Scientific 2,866 Associate's 8 Supervisors and Managers of Office and Admin. Support Workers 2,785 Associate's 9 Supervisors and Managers of Retail Sales 2,677 Post-secondary training 10 Accountants and Auditors 2,662 Bachelor's 11 Teacher Assistants 2,563 Associate's 12 Postsecondary Teachers, Except Graduate Teaching Assistants 2,556 Advanced 13 Medical Secretaries 2,549 Post-secondary training 14 Nursing Assistants 2,393 Post-secondary training 15 Supervisors and Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 2,364 Post-secondary training 16 Bartenders 2,338 Post-secondary training 17 Carpenters 2,303 Post-secondary training 18 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 1,949 Advanced 19 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 1,914 Post-secondary training 20 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special Ed./Tecnical Ed. 1,848 Advanced 21 Home Health Aides 1,825 Post-secondary training 22 Physicians and Surgeons 1,794 Advanced 23 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 1,747 Bachelor's 24 Medical Assistants 1,675 Post-secondary training 25 Computer User Support Specialists 1,459 Bachelor's

High igh-pri riorit ity a and nd high high-wage/hi high gh-dema mand d occupati ation ons b s by projected openings OED Prority Total openings 2012- Occupation Competitive education level Rank 2017 16 General and Operations Managers 3,470 Bachelor's 11 Accountants and Auditors 2,662 Bachelor's 5 Carpenters 2,303 Post-secondary training 16 Physicians and Surgeons 1,794 Advanced 4 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 1,118 Post-secondary training 16 Computer Systems Analysts 973 Bachelor's 16 Cost Estimators 879 Bachelor's 16 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 802 Post-secondary training 16 Computer Occupations, All Other 800 Bachelor's 10 Machinists 751 Post-secondary training 5 Sales Managers 715 Bachelor's 16 Pharmacists 704 Advanced 3 Medical and Health Services Managers 661 Advanced 5 Industrial Engineers 656 Advanced 16 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators 642 Post-secondary training 5 Computer Hardware Engineers 621 Advanced 5 Marketing Managers 604 Bachelor's 11 Construction Managers 600 Bachelor's 1 Physical Therapists 591 Advanced 16 Firefighters 585 Associate's 16 Librarians 317 Advanced 2 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 297 Bachelor's 11 Veterinarians 272 Advanced 11 Urban and Regional Planners 268 Advanced 11 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 265 Associate's

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions • Oregon institutions produce Bachelor’s degrees at levels roughly consistent with anticipated workforce need and 40-40-20 for younger adults. Production of other completion types appear less aligned. • These data suggest the value of a targeted approach to goal-setting, particularly for older adults to ensure that increased attainment is associated with labor market success.

Recommendations • For older adults, consider targeting “low- hanging fruit” (e.g., adults with some college and no degree) • Consider output targets related to specific occupations in collaboration with OED to leverage existing data and expertise. • Continue state investments in unit-level longitudinal data systems to improve knowledge about program value