faculty of economics centre for energy economics research and business | Electrification of heating and transport consequences for gas consumption, emissions and costs MACHIEL MULDER Centre for Energy Economics Research Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen Joint research with Jose Moraga (VU Amsterdam), Chloé le Coq (Stockholm) en Sebastian Schwenen (München) on request of CERRE (Centre on Regulation in Europe, Brussel) Energy Days: climate policy and energy markets TU Eindhoven, 28 March 2019
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Outine 1. Method 2. Scenarios 3. Results electricity consumption & generation a) gas consumption & supply b) costs c) CO2 emissions d) 4. Conclusions
Policy objectives wrt Number of houses and cars Investments in electrification Annual change in number of electrification in period to in residential buildings and by type, energy use and houses and cars 2050 road transport electrification in 2016 Annual electrification in Annual consumption of fossil Annual emissions residential buildings and Electrification scenarios fuels in residential buildings of CO 2 road transport and road transport Extra annual electricity Investments in Impact of consumption because of electricity network electrification on electrification Autonomous annual annual change in remaining • natural-gas electricity consumption consumption Investments in • Annual electricity Annual natural gas total system natural-gas consumption consumption costs network • emissions of CO 2 Actual level of electricity consumption in 2016 Annual and seasonal Investments in generation by gas-fired gas-fired power power plants Annual supply of plants methane through Actual composition of electrolysis electricity generation in Annual electricity Annual electricity Seasonal demand 2016 Annual generation by and supply of generation by Investments in net conventional plants renewable techniques power from Power- Power-to-Gas Policy objectives wrt imports (except gas plants) (wind and solar) to-Gas equipment electricity generation in period to 2050
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Scenarios Scenarios Fossil Fuel Hybrid Electrification Annual degree of electrification Housing New 5% 50% 100% Existing stock (x1000) 0 100 200 Houses connected to district heating (x 1000) 1 100 1 Transport (% of new cars) Passenger cars 5% 40% 80% Vans 0% 25% 50% Trucks 0% 5% 10% Buses 0% 25% 50% Motorbikes and scooters 0% 50% 80% Bicycles 35% 35% 35%
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Data and assumptions on residential houses Statistical data for 2016 Assumptions on energy use for period to 2050 Variable Value Variable Value Number of houses (x million) 7,6 Annual increase in number of houses 0,5% Number of houses electrified (x million) 0,02 Annual number of new houses (x 1000) 50 Average size of houses in m2 119 Energy use for heating a new house (in m 3 gas) 1000 Average gas consumption per house (m3)* 1400 Annual increase in efficiency houses 1% share of gas used for cooking** 5% Coefficient of performance (COP) of heat pumps Space heating 3 share of gas used for hot water** 15% Warm water 1 Share of houses connected to district heating Annual increase in efficiency of heat pumps 1% system 5.5% CO 2 emissions by households in 1990 (Mton) 21 Sources: CBS, RVO
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Electrification of residential houses, 2016-2050, 2 scenarios
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Consumption of electricity in houses, for heating, cooking and hot water, in 2050
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business Data and assumptions on road transport | Assumptions on energy use for period to 2050 Statistical data for 2016 Variable Value Variable Value Passenger cars Number of (x million) Annual number of new cars (x 1000) 400 Performance electric (kWh/100km) 20 passenger cars 8,9 Vans vans 0,84 Annual number of new vans (x 1000) 60 trucks 0,15 Performance electric (kWh/100km) 35 buses 0,01 Trucks motorbikes and scooters 1,15 Annual number of new trucks (x 1000) 10 bicycles 22,7 Performance electric (kWh/100km) 70 Of which electric (x 1000) Buses passenger cars 60 Annual number of new buses (x 1000) 0,75 vans 0 Performance electric (kWh/100km) 100 trucks 0 Motorbikes and scooters Annual number of new M&S (x 1000) 75 buses 0,1 Performance electric (kWh/100km) 5 motorbikes and scooters 0 Bicycles bicycles 1500 Annual number of new bicycles (x 1000) 1000 Average distance per year (km) Performance electric (kWh/100km) 1 passenger cars 13022 All vehicles vans 18896 Annual increase in number 1% trucks 59228 Annual increase in efficiency 1% buses 61461 Annual increase in average distance per vehicle 0% motorbikes and scooters 2000 Battery charging units bicycles 1000 Annual improvement in charging efficiency 0,5%
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Electrification of road transport, in 2050 (per scenario) % of full electric cars
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Consumption of electricity by road transport, in 2050, per scenario
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Autonomous growth in electricity consumption: 0.6% per year since 2000 Assumption for period up to 2050: 0.5% growth per year
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Consumption of electricity, total Netherlands, autonomous + effect electrification in 2050, per scenario
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Supply of electricity: assumptions Variable Assumption Background coal-fired plants -7% facing out in 2030 other fossil fuel plants -11% facing out in 2025 nuclear plants -11% facing out in 2025 hydro plants 0% remains constant wind (annual increase in TWh) 2.7 policy target in 2030 is 13000 MW wind in period after policy target (increase in TWh) 2.1 annual investments after 2030 600 MW solar (annual increase in TWh) 1.8 policy target in 2030 is 12000 MW solar in period after policy target (annual increase in TWh) 1.3 annual investments after 2030 600 MW biomass 2% gradual increase based on past other 1% gradual increase based on past net import (if negative, this refers to export) 2% increase in cross-border capacity Capacity factor: wind: 40%, solar: 25% (more than in publication)
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Supply of electricity, 2016-2050 (aggregated numbers per year)
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | …but what to do with fluctuations in generation and load? distribution of joint weather circumstances over past 6 years • hardly wind • a lot of wind • hardly sunshine • a lot of sunshine • cold (= high • normal demand for heat) temperature (low • working days demand for (high demand for heating or power) cooling) • weekends (low demand for power)
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Supply of electricity on extreme days Hardly wind and sunshine, high heating demand, A lot of wind and sunshine, no heating demand, working day weekend Solar, wind and biomassa generate more than needed: Supply of electricity from storage, wind, solar, biomass storage of power as hydrogen (Power-to-Gas) and import not sufficient to satisfy demand: gas fired power plants are required
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Storage of power as storage for seasonal flexibility (PtG) Assumptions on efficiency PtG Variable Value (%) Efficiency electrolyser 75% Efficiency power plants 42% Resulting efficiency Power-to-Gas 31%
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Gas-generation capacity needed on worse day
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Consumption of gas in houses and electricity sector Full electrification scenario All scenarios in 2050 Assumption: gas-fired power plants realise 1% efficiency improvement per year
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Total consumption of gas in the Nederlands Assumptions on industry: 1% efficiency improvement per year – no hydrogen or elektrification
centre for energy economics research faculty of economics and business | Supply of gas to the Dutch market, 2016-2050 Statistical data Assumptions Variable Value Variable Value production cap Groningen gas field (bcm): remaining reserves Groningen gas field (bcm) 663 - 2017 - 2021 21.6 remaining reserves small fields (bcm) 247 - 2022 12 annual net export (bcm) 10 gradual decline to 0 annual production of green gas (bcm) 0.08 2023-2030 bcm in 2030 production small fields in 2016 (bcm) 26 annual reduction in production small fields 2% annual increase in production of green gas 5% efficiency of electrolysis 75% efficiency of converting H 2 into CH 4 80%
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