Planning for Adoption of Electric Buses April 7, 2020 Michael Groh, Sam Schwartz Consulting 1
Agenda 1. State of the Electric Bus Industry a. Growth of Electric Buses b. Benefits of Electric Buses c. Challenges 2. Electric Bus Technologies a. Slow and Fast Charging b. Charging Mechanisms c. Real World Performance 3. Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses a. Schedule Compatibility b. Facilities Updates c. Fleet Planning d. Cost Projections
State of the Electric Bus Industry: Growth of Electric Buses
Current State of Electric Bus Market • Battery-electric bus manufacturing and technology are still new but progressing rapidly. • Dozens of transit agencies in the US with electric bus experience – most with less than 10 buses • Currently, six agencies in the United States are operating 10 or more electric buses. • The industry is currently focusing on 40-foot standard bus designs. Offerings in the 60-foot articulated bus category are still limited. • Electric bus manufacturers include New Flyer, Nova, Gillig, BYD, and Proterra. 5 INGENUITY. ACCESSIBILITY. INTEGRITY
Electric Bus Projects in the US • Key agencies with electric bus experience: • King County Metro: 120 electric buses by 2020 • IndyGo: 34 buses, 18 more on order • Antelope Valley Transportation Authority: 30 electric buses (two 60-foot), anticipated 100% conversion in 2019/2020. • Foothill Transit: 37 buses, 100% fleet conversion by 2030 • California Air Resources Board mandate for transit agencies to transition to electric buses by 2040 • 425,000 electric buses deployed worldwide (99% in China) 6 Source: TCRP Synthesis 130: Battery Electric Buses State of the Practice, Union of concerned scientists
Electric Bus Growth US US Transit it Ag Agencie ies with ith Ba Battery ry Elec lectric Bus Buses 50 44 45 40 35 35 30 27 25 20 16 15 10 8 10 6 5 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 7 Source: National Transit Database
Electric Bus Growth Tot otal l Ba Battery ry Elec lectric Bus Buses in in US US 350 329 300 251 250 200 148 150 114 100 81 52 52 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 8 Source: National Transit Database
State of the Electric Bus Industry: Benefits of Electric Buses
Benefits of Electric Buses • Health benefits: eliminates tailpipe air pollution emissions • Reduces noise to levels equivalent to a passenger car • Reduces fuel costs and price uncertainty • Long-term reduction of greenhouse gases • Show leadership to decarbonize transportation sector 10 Source: CTA
Electric Bus Emissions Transit Bus GHG Emissions 11 Source: MJB&A
State of the Electric Bus Industry: Challenges
Electric Bus Challenges • Early models had limited battery capacities • Ambitious manufacturer claims not matched with real-world performance • Need to anticipate impacts of cold weather, running heat/air conditioning, difficult terrain • Thorough planning is needed before placing electric buses into service 14
Electric Bus Technologies 15
Electric Bus Technologies: Slow and Fast Charging
Two Strategies for Charger Power SLOW CHARGING FAST CHARGING AT GARAGES ON-ROUTE Smaller Electrical Larger Electrical Requirement Requirement Needs Longer Shorter Charging Duration Charging Duration 17
Slow and Fast Charging (Example) SLOW CHARGING FAST CHARGING AT GARAGES ON-ROUTE 25-75* miles Bus Garage Bus Layover Bus Layover (10 minutes) (10 minutes) (2-5 hours) 25-75* 25-75* miles miles 150-200* miles or less Bus Layover Bus Layover (10 minutes) (10 minutes) 25-75* miles *”Real world” battery mileage vary based on technology and real -world conditions. 18
Electric Bus Technologies: Charging Mechanisms
Charging Mechanisms Conductive Charging Plug-in Photo credit: Autoblog.com Photo credit: ABB.com Inductive Charging Continuous Charging 20 Photo credit: electrive.com Photo credit: Siemens
Mechanisms: Plug-in Charging (Typically Slow/Garage Charging) Source: https://www.oppcharge.org/ 21
Mechanisms: Conductive Charging (Can be Fast or Slow) 22
Mechanisms: Inductive Charging (Typically Fast/On-route Charging) Photo credit: electrive.com
Mechanisms: Continuous Charging Trolleybuses require overhead catenary wire for most of their route. This is also called In Motion Charging (IMC) when buses spend significant time off-wire. Photo credit: Wikipedia
Standardizing Chargers Overhead charging standard (J3105) Plug-in standard (J1772) Photo credit: insideevs.com Photo credit: chargedevs.com 25
Agency Charging Types AGENCY Plug-in Conductive Inductive Continuous King County Metro X X X Foothill Transit X X New York City Transit X X Antelope Valley Transit Authority X X LADOT X X Greensboro Transit Authority X X SEPTA X IndyGo X X DART (Dallas) X X Vineyard Transit Authority X X 26
Pros/Cons of E-bus & Charger Types Consideration Slow Charging Fast Charging in Garages On-Route ― Larger battery packs cost more. + Smaller battery packs cost less. Bus Cost ― Fast-chargers typically cost more + Slow-chargers typically cost less to Charger Cost purchase/install. to purchase/install. ― Somewhat reduced garage capacity, + Lessened garage capacity impact. Garage Space likely need for indoor storage. 27
How will this technology evolve? • Maintenance costs • Battery prices • Charging • Bus prices 28
Electric Bus Technologies: Real World Performance
Real World Performance • Transit agencies should anticipate: • How much energy (kWh) is consumed per mile? May increase 64% to 75% on very cold days due to heating May increase on hot days due to aid conditioning Also varies based on driver behavior (acceleration, braking) • Battery capacity will degrade over time • Not all of the battery capacity is usable (to avoid damage) • There should be a minimum reserve capacity drivers do not go below (to avoid breakdowns) Manufacturer claims will not tell the whole story! 30 Source: TriMet/CTE
Battery Capacity 31 Source: TriMet/CTE
Battery Capacity 32 Source: TriMet/CTE
Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses
Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses: Schedule Compatibility
Schedule Analysis Purpose Determine whether electric buses can actually operate the transit service they would be assigned Methodology Obtain the schedules of trips that buses would be assigned to operate Calculate each bus’s state of charge as it completes its schedule Charge declines based on miles traveled Charge increases if on-route charging occurs Identify what service is difficult to electrify so agency can make changes Repeat for various technologies being considered INGENUITY. ACCESSIBILITY. INTEGRITY
4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 12:00 AM 2:00 AM
Example of Technology Assumptions Considered 8 different scenarios with range of inputs: Minimum layover Operation Analysis Scenario Maximum distance between charges charge time 1 4 minutes 25 miles FC Analysis 1: 2 10 minutes 25 miles FC Fast-charge battery- 3 15 minutes 25 miles FC electric buses 4 15 minutes 40 miles FC 5 - 150 miles SC Analysis 2: 6 - 200 miles SC Slow-charge battery- 7 - 250 miles SC electric buses 8 - 300 miles SC
Example Results: Service Eligible for BEB Operation
Example Results: Service Eligible for BEB Operation 39
Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses: Facilities Updates
Where Are On-Route Chargers Feasible? Agency owns the layover space There is space for the charging cabinet Buses have dedicated bays (not back-to-back, not on street)
Develop Network of On-Route Charger Locations Identify locations that would be used the most by electric buses More chargers can make more service eligible for BEBs On-route chargers are very expensive…
Garage Charging Impacts Capacity Diesel Buses 4 6 7 9 1 2 5 8 3 Electric Buses 1 4 2 3 5 6 7 8 43
Equity Analysis Deployment of electric buses should consider social equity of the areas that would benefit 44 44
Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses: Fleet Planning
Replacing an Entire Fleet Depends on lifetime of a bus. A bus fleet naturally turns over through one lifetime. Example: The TriMet bus fleet naturally turns over from 2020 to 2036. Their bus lifetime is 16 years.
Replacing the Fleet 1,200 1,000 981 967 40- foot buses 953 939 925 911 897 883 869 855 800 836 817 796 778 749 728 709 694 660 600 400 200 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Replacing the Fleet 1,200 Committed Diesel Fleet New Electric Fleet 1,000 981 967 40- foot buses 953 939 925 911 897 883 869 855 800 836 817 796 778 749 728 709 694 660 600 400 200 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Committed Purchases Transition Period
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