Wycombe District Council Economy & Employment Land Study October 2013
Contents • Introduction • The economy • The property market • Demand and supply in the long term • New land • Summary
Introduction • What have we been asked to do? • In summary: • Look at where is the economy heading? • How can the Council help foster this? • What does this mean for the development plan? • Development control? • And new land? • Provide advice consistent with the National Planning Policy Framework • Must be deliverable • And viable • And alighted with the emerging housing targets • In the Strategic Housing Market Assessment
The economy
Falling employment • In 2001-11 the district lost 12,500 jobs • (Experian data – estimates vary but the trend is clear) • Employment fell almost every year • Even before the recession • Against national and regional trend • Large losses of manufacturing • The decline came much later to Wycombe than elsewhere • But Wycombe failed to grasp the regional growth sectors • Office jobs • Sectors did well nationally and regionally • The ratio of jobs to workers fell • By about 20%
Job density in Buckinghamshire over time (note: SE is 0.8 in 2012)
But the resident workforce still does well • 2,300 people claim Jobseeker’s Allowance (August 2013) • That’s 2.1% of the workforce • Same as South East region • Workplace earnings are well above the regional average • £480 per week in Wycombe • £430 in South East region • And higher than most of Bucks • Only South Bucks pay more • Residents’ earnings also exceed the SE average • Whether they work in the district or elsewhere • Many work in other districts • But mostly don’t travel far
Why has the job loss not hurt? • The 2004 position may also have been unsustainable • Very few areas achieve a 1:1+ ratio • Almost all central London • The labour market is sub-regional • Extends well beyond the district boundary • And it’s a healthy labour market • Low unemployment • High activity rates • High earnings • Allowing for the recession • Which affects all places • So people have found jobs
The economy – summary • Wycombe lost jobs • As a district it performed very badly • Compared to the Region • Lost manufacturing • No surprise • But failed to grasp growth • Offices • Warehouses • But the residents still have jobs • Well paid jobs • They don’t need to commute far to work • Job density is no better; or worse than the South East
The property market
The office market • The stock is generally well occupied • There are always exceptions • At present new development is not viable anywhere • But the market should improve in the medium term • There should be development opportunities • Around High Wycombe and Marlow • Maybe on a smaller scale around Bourne End & Wooburn • Margins of the Thames Valley • But town centre offices are a problem • In High Wycombe and Marlow • Office development is not viable • And will not become so • Even maintaining existing offices may be unviable • Regeneration / intensification would need mixed uses • And / or public intervention • Competition from the Thames Valley core is fierce • Keeps Wycombe's more marginal market depressed
Top quoting rents, 2013 Q2
The industrial market • The stock is well occupied and financially healthy • Little warehousing • Partly because most the land is not suitable • Development opportunities • Best around Wycombe / Marlow / M40 J4 • There is viable demand for new development • Despite the recession • But no land for it • On a smaller scale around Bourne End / Wooburn /M40 J3 • Less so at Princes Risborough • Existing stock works well • But significant further development may be difficult • Market = local and long-established businesses • Risky • Hence capital values too low to support speculative schemes
The market & economy • Bringing the story together… • For Industrial • Wycombe’s manufacturing economy restructured later than others • Elsewhere this may have been turned to warehouses • It was a growing sector • But not suited to much of the Wycombe land • So land was lost to housing.. • For Offices • Lost out to the core of the Thames Valley • Wycombe has always been marginal • But in the boom times could compete • In the recession occupiers could pick up ‘bargain space’ • In some of the best office locations in the UK • Many firms overlooked Wycombe? • Local workers followed the jobs…
Demand and supply in the long term
Approach • Where are we heading? • Crystal ball gazing is difficult • Experts can rarely agree • We have started with an economic forecast • How many jobs, in what sectors and how much land? • Supplied by the Local Enterprise Partnership • So an evidence base shared across the County • But all consultees told us this was too high • Too many new jobs • 1,350 new jobs a year • Mostly office based • Unrealistic • (including the LEP representative on our steering group) • Not aligned with the emerging housing numbers • Too many jobs and not enough new labour • So developed an alternative
Demand for employment space 2011-31: balanced scenario Change per annum Industrial Office Total B class Jobs -69 589 519 Sq m per job 45 19 64 Floorspace (GIA), sq m -3,125 11,189 8,065 Indicative sq m per hectare 4,000 6,000 Indicative site area, ha -0.8 1.9 1.1 Total change (20 years) Jobs -1,389 11,778 10,390 Floorspace (GIA), sq m -62,498 223,789 161,291 Indicative site area, ha -15.6 37.3 21.7
Industrial balance • Forecast shows 16ha Industrial land loss 2011 - 2030 • A much slower late of decline than seen in the past • 50ha loss 2001 – 2012 • We have looked at this in detail • Compared to the planning pipeline • New land • Permitted Losses • Looked at the potential new land
Industrial balance • Most existing sites are full • No scope for intensification • Committed losses are already 7.1ha • Sites with permission for alternative uses • Plus likely additional from Council's 2011 Position Statement • Leigh Street • Lane End (T&L, Springbank) • Total 5ha • So 12 ha already committed to release • There will be further losses • As sites become obsolete • And cannot viably re-used • Under any assumptions losses exceed 16ha • As a very simple guide ANY further losses need replacing on new land
Offices • Most forecast demand is for offices • Under any scenario Wycombe needs new land for new jobs • How much is TBC • For offices LEP thinks our ‘labour balanced’ scenario is too high • Most offices today are well occupied • Little scope to intensify • For new land Handy Cross will help • But will provide only a fraction of what is needed • (8% of today’s stock) • The Town Centre will remain unviable for a while • Outside of these little supply • So we again have a supply problem • If Wycombe is to stand any chance of growing its jobs • It needs some new land
New land
New land • Where to look? • Almost all the population growth is likely to be in the South • Also where the market potential is • Margins of the Thames Valley • Motorway Access… • Emerging suggestions: • Intensity the Air Park? • Additional local quality industrial & Warehousing? • A new office park at Marlow? • The market remains interested in Marlow • Possibly Viable? • M40 J 3a • Open up new land • We think for a mix of offices / high technology industrial • (continue to promote the town centre of Wycombe for new offices)
New land • Even if we proceed with all 3 areas of new land the market will remain tight • Perhaps greatest concern is that if land continues to be released for housing • The pressure on the employment stock will increase… • Will need further land • The only option will be in the greenbelt • Or a much lower economic aspiration? • Few jobs, more commuting?
Summary • Almost any job growth in Wycombe requires new land • Either to return to 2004 job balance • The ‘peak’ of the local economy? • When Wycombe was a commuting destination? • Or simply to provide enough new jobs for any new local residents • No obvious new land supply • The reserve sites help a little • So any option is likely to require greenbelt
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