Economic Centers: Connecting for Competitiveness Gregg Logan, RCLCO for MyRegion.org | March 1, 2012
JOB GROWTH HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS ORLANDO MSA Th The importance of i t f looking at the whole picture… 1 06-12618.00
JOB GROWTH HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS ORLANDO MSA Economy.Com‘s Historical / Projected Annual Employment Change Orlando MSA (Thousands) 1970-2020 1,400 R Recession i 1,200 Boom 1,000 000s) Recovery y al Employment (0 800 600 Tota 400 200 0 Total Employemnt (000s) SOURCE: Moody’s Economy.com, February 2011 2 06-12618.00
JOB GROWTH HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS ORLANDO MSA What kinds of jobs? Professional and technical services include research, Florida overall well services technology services, technology positioned to capture iti d t t Biotechnology and life sciences jobs in 150 Companies employ 9,248 Accommodations and employees with $2.6 billion in employees with $2.6 billion in food service earnings Cluster potential to grow to 30,000 Finance and jobs and $7.6 billion over next 10 insurance insurance years years Southeast Orlando: Professional and Sanford-Burnham Medical Research technical services Institute UCF College of Medicine, Burnett School of Biomedical Sciences MD Anderson Cancer Institute UF Research and Academic Center 3 06-12618.00
HOME SALES INCREASING AGAIN… Existing SFD Home Sales Orlando MSA, Florida, 1995–2011 40,000 40 000 35,000 30,000 , 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 SOURCE: Florida Association of Realtors 4 06-12618.00
INVENTORY DOWN DRAMATICALLY – APPROXIMATELY 5 MONTHS OF RESALE INVENTORY IN ORLANDO Historical Inventory vs. Sales, Orlando MSA 2004-2011 Months of Number of Inventory Units 30,000 30 000 35 35 30 25,000 25 25 20,000 20 15,000 15 10,000 10 5,000 5 0 0 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Monthly Sales Monthly Sales Total Inventory Total Inventory Months of Inventory Months of Inventory SOURCE: Orlando Regional Realtor Association 5 06-12618.00
…AND INVENTORY IS SHRINKING Inventory vs. Sales, Orlando MSA 2006-2011 Months of Number of Inventory Units 3,500 The “Bubble” Bursts 35 3,000 30 2 500 2,500 25 25 2,000 20 1 500 1,500 15 15 1,000 10 500 500 5 5 0 0 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Monthly Sales Monthly Sales Months of Inventory Months of Inventory SOURCE: Orlando Regional Realtor Association 6 06-12618.00
UCF - HOUSING CONSTRUCTION INCREASING 2010 – 2014 AS DEMAND INCREASES Historical and Projected Annual Housing Starts (Thousands) Orlando MSA, FL 2002-2014 40 000 40,000 35,000 30,000 6,956 6,204 6,052 using Starts 25,000 5,289 7,673 20,000 Hou 5,061 15,000 5,419 26,872 26,196 24,310 22,318 4,295 10,000 17,509 4,635 3,063 13,089 12,556 1,897 5,000 , 656 656 8,566 8 566 829 829 5,722 5,554 4,682 4,385 3,829 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Single-Family Starts Multifamily Starts SOURCE: UCF Institute for Economic Competitiveness, October 2011 7 06-12618.00
2014 – THE NEXT “NORMAL” YEAR SLOW TO MODERATE GROWTH THROUGH RECOVERY M d Moderate job growth in 2011 t j b th i 2011 Housing starts increase in 2012 Lending standards improve 2012 Boomers slowly returning the market 2012 – 2014 y g GenY impacts rental demand 2010 – 2015; for-sale 2015+ PEAK 2006 NORMAL 2001 RECOVERY TROUGH 2013 2012 2011 2009 2010 SOURCE: RCLCO 8 06-12618.00
JOB CORE AREAS, OR “CENTERS” THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF REGIONS Employment Centers drive the development pattern Regions grow around multi-dimensional regional centers Places where employment, education, civic, and recreation combine to serve the region’s population and economic activity These are the places that benefit most from mobility connectivity New Centers are needed for job growth Correlation between the number and characteristics of economic centers and total jobs C l ti b t th b d h t i ti f i t d t t l j b 06-12618.00
LOCATION OF KEY JOBS DRIVE REGIONAL GROWTH PATTERNS RCLCO research of 15 regions shows recurring patterns: • 35% to 40% of regional employment locates in defined employment core, • Majority of the higher-paying, “export-oriented” jobs locate in such Centers • Export jobs “export” goods and services, import income • Number of region’s cores correlated to total employment, and their locations are rational locations are rational • New cores emerge around transportation infrastructure • Are more likely in Favored Quarter locations • Where jobs locate drives growth pattern SOURCE: RCLCO 10 06-12618.00
EXPORT AND REGIONAL SERVING EMPLOYMENT LOCATES IN CENTERS, DRIVES GROWTH PATTERN 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 Cores 12 11 f Economic C 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 Number of 3 2 1 0 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900 Employment (1,000's) Denver Philadelphia Cincinatti Detroit Houston 2000 Nashville Atlanta Chattanooga Salt Lake City Raleigh-Durham Minneapolis-St. Paul Charleston Phoenix Central FL 2009 Tampa-St. Pete Sarasota S t S San Diego 2008 Di 2008 H Huntsville 2010 t ill 2010 H Houston 2010 t 2010 11
EMPLOYEE CONCENTRATIONS IN FLORIDA ALIGN WITH MAJOR HIGHWAYS / EXPRESSWAYS 12 06-12618.00
INFLUENCE OF TRANSPORTATION Majority of major employment cores located along highways and interchanges • High paying jobs concentrate along major highways, clustering at g p y g j g j g y , g interchanges • Jobs locations grow faster when highway access is available System to system interchanges are even more beneficial • Double number of jobs • Get regional connectivity 13 06-12618.00
INFLUENCE OF CENTERS ON REGIONAL GROWTH PATTERNS Center characteristics similar across regions • Tend to be certain size • Similar numbers of housing units (jobs/housing ratio) • Regions have a tendency to have similar typologies of centers • Regions need Centers to grow, and need to add new centers – Not all centers become job centers or drive economy – retail places for example – Higher-end office cores typically follow households Planning for new cores – Existing cores densify over time – there is still the need to add more Existing cores densify over time there is still the need to add more – A given site’s potential determined by where it is in relation to a center – Growth of centers follows similar trajectory (e.g. next office cores after 5000 jobs) – Transportation network can support/drive where they go p pp y g – Not all transportation routes support or grow centers Source: RCLCO 06-12618.00
6 TYPES OF JOB CORES SHARE SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS REGIONS CORE TYPE EXAMPLES Downtown Orlando, Downtown Tampa, Downtown St. Urban Centers Petersburg Catalytic Core Disney Resorts, FL, Universal Studios, FL, University of Central Florida I-4/Turnpike Crossing, Orlando Airport and Surroundings Industrial Core Favored Quarter Office Core Lake Mary, FL, Maitland, FL Daytona Beach, FL, Kissimmee, FL, Lakeland, FL, Historic Satellite Cities/Towns Retail Cores Florida Mall Area, Orlando FL SOURCE: RCLCO 15 06-12618.00
SMALL CITY CORE CHARACTERISTICS Small Cities (Employment Below 1.5 Million) 8 8 Average Number of Cores Average Number of Cores Size Range (#Jobs) of Cores 15,000-58,000 in Small Cities: Average Size of Cores in 29,000 Small Cities Excluding CBD: Size Range of Cores in Small 12,000-48,000 Cities Excluding CBD Cities Excluding CBD Source: RCLCO Average % of Employment 38% Within Cores 16 06-12618.00
BIG CITY CORE CHARACTERISTICS Large Cities (Employment Above 1.5 Million) 14 14 Average Number of Cores Average Number of Cores Size Range (# Jobs) of Cores 47,000-74,000 in Large Cities: Average Size of Cores in 53,000 Large Cities Excluding CBD: Size Range of Cores in Large 43,000-64,000 Cities Excluding CBD: Cities Excluding CBD: Source: RCLCO % of Employment Within 38% Cores Cores 17 06-12618.00
PREDICTING GROWTH: THREE CORE TYPES DRIVE GROWTH Existing Core Large employment cores already shaping regional growth patterns-tend to have more than 25,000 jobs Emerging Cores g g Enough job growth over next 10 to 20 years to shape regional growth and development patterns - will have approximately 25,000 or more by 2030 Likely New Core Areas of regions likely attract significant employment growth in the next 20 years but will have less than growth in the next 20 years, but will have less than 25,000 jobs in 2030 06-12618.00
GROWTH MOMENTUM INDEX 0.55 Score of less than 1.66 1 means area is 1 46 1.46 LOSING market 0.80 share Score of greater 1.48 1 48 1.26 than 1 means area is GAINING market share 1 10 1.10 0 67 0.67 Formula: 2.15 1.20 Numerator = share of region’s growth 0 13 0.13 Denominator = 1.05 share of population 0 82 0.82 Source: BEBR June 2011 19 06-12618.00
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