DYNAMIS A Portable Dynamic Socio-Demographic Microsimulation Model - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DYNAMIS A Portable Dynamic Socio-Demographic Microsimulation Model for Developing Countries Martin Spielauer, Olivier Dupriez

DYNAMIS-POP-NPL  DYNAMIS o Dynamic Micro-Simulation  POP o Focus on Population projections o The demographic core for other applications  NPL o Country application for Nepal o First version was for Mauretania DYNAMIS-POP-MRT http://ihsn.org/projects/dynamis-pop

What is Dynamic Micro-Simulation? Computer-simulation of a society in which the population is represented by a large sample of its individual members and their behaviors.  Macro Models project cell-sizes  Dynamic microsimulation projects individual life courses and the interaction between people

When does it make sense? When macro models are technically too restrictive  Number of variables  Types of variables (non-categorical)  Process types (non-Markov) When longitudinal consistency is required  Realistic life-courses  Longitudinal accounting Modeling of interactions  Life course interactions and downstream effects  Linked lives, transmission  Policies

Limitations Transitory limitations  Computer power  Development costs  Data requirements Randomness affecting prediction power  Prediction power depends on model specification and randomness which increases with detail  Difficulty to find optimal point between too simple models (misspecification error) and too detailed models (randomness)  Not a limitation for population projections

How are MS Models Created?  Start from a population data base o Individual characteristics o Links to other persons  Behavioral models for updating individual characteristics o Discrete time models: updates in fixed time steps using models of probabilities o Continuous time models: competing risk approach based on rates and corresponding waiting times.  Accounting routines o Aggregated model output tables o Tax-benefit accounting

DYNAMIS– Characteristics & Philosophy  Portable platform o Based on data available for most countries o Refinable, extendable & adaptable to specific contexts  Modularity o Library of analysis tools and models o Selection of models, geographic depth, variables to be included in country context o Automated generation of model parameters

DYNAMIS– Characteristics & Philosophy  Start from the ‚known‘ (available macro projections) o Model can reproduce macro models: same assumptions, parameter tables -> same outputs o More refined models can be added and selected with and without alignment to macro projections  Reproducible o Step-by-step documentation (stats & programming) o Freely available software (R, Modgen, DYNAMIS)

DYNAMIS – Characteristics & Philosophy  User friendly o Fully documented GUI and model (help files) o Parameters typically have intuitive interpretation o Scenario management: parameters stored together with results  Analysis tool o Easy to specify meaningful scenarios o Overall trends vs. trends in relative differences o Downstream effects o Decomposition of effects o Composition vs. behavioral effects

DYNAMIS – Characteristics & Philosophy  Rich Output o Extendable hierarchical list of tables o Micro-data output (projected cross-sectional and panel data) o Database of individual histories for graphical visualization (BioBrowser)  R-Integration o Data analysis and parameter file generation o DYNAMIS can be run from command line/from R o Post-processing of simulation results

DYNAMIS – GUI

Data Census Micro-Data DHS Micro-Data Fix Prepare Analyze Starting Population Parameter Files

DYNAMIS – Fertility  Base Version o Age-specific fertility distribution by year o Total Fertility Rate (TFR) by year  Extended Version o First births by age, union status, education, province o Higher order births by education, time since last birth o Separate trends by birth order  Alignment Choices (extended version) o Not aligned o Aligned to total births of base version o Aligned to total births by age of base version

DYNAMIS – Mortality  Base Version o Standard life table of age-specific rates by sex o Life expectancy by calendar year and sex  Refined child mortality model (ages 0-4) o Age baseline o Relative risks by mothers education and age group o Age-specific overall trends  Alignment options (refined model) o Without o Initial alignment to base model – trends from base o Initial alignment to base model – specific trends

DYNAMIS – Internal Migration  Base o Probabilities to leave by province, age group and sex o Distribution of destinations by origin, age, sex  Refined o Education added to probability to leave

DYNAMIS – Immigration and Emigration  Immigration o Immigration numbers by year and sex o Age distribution by sex o Destination distribution by sex and age  Emigration o Emigration rates by province, age and sex

DYNAMIS – Primary Education  Base: Probabilities of school entry and graduation by year & province of birth, sex  Based on proportional models (logistic regression)  Typically high and persistent inter-provincial differences  Refinements: o Choice of geographical level (region, district) o Transmission: adding mothers education o Grade system: tracking of students by grade

DYNAMIS – Primary Education  Nepal Primary School Entry Primary School Retention 100% 100% 95% 95% 90% 90% 85% 85% 80% 80% 75% 75% 70% 70% 65% 65% 60% 60% 55% 55% 50% 50% 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 Female Kathmandu Female Rautahat Female Kathmandu Female Rautahat Male Kathmandu Male Rautahat Male Kathmandu Male Rautahat  Mauretania

DYNAMIS – School Progression  Parameters for intake, success, progression, repetition  ...or a „best guess“: optional automatic calibration to meet target graduation rates.

DYNAMIS – School Progression  Illustration: Primary students by grade in Mauretania  Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Improvements Current trends towards universal graduation

DYNAMIS – First Union  Option A: Age-specific rates  Option B: Parametric model by Coale & McNeil o Parameters: lowest and average age at first union formation and final outcome of ever entering a union o Simulation results can be used as base for option A (which can be easily modified e.g. to a scenario banning child marriages)

DYNAMIS – First Union - Analysis

DYNAMIS – First Union - Analysis

Example: Effects of Education  2 Scenarios: o Base: Continuing observed trends o Alternative: Phased-in universal primary, cohorts 2005-2010

Example: Effects of Education Primary Education Of 18 Year Old - Kathmandu 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 .. Base Szenario .. Alternative Szenario Never entered primary school Primary school non-completer Primary school graduate Primary Education Of 18 Year Old - Rautahat 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 .. 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Base Szenario .. Alternative Szenario Never entered primary school Primary school non-completer Primary school graduate

Example: Births by Mother‘s Education Distribution of Births by Mother's Education - BASE SZENARIO 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 Kathmandu .. Rautahat Never entered primary school Entered primary school Graduated from primary school Distribution of Births by Mother's Education - ALTERNATIVE SZENARIO 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 Kathmandu .. Rautahat Never entered primary school Entered primary school Graduated from primary school

Example: Teenage Births, Infant Deaths (0-4) Teenage Pregnancies Child Deaths (Age 0-4)  Nepal 40000 45000 40000 35000 35000 30000 30000 25000 25000 20000 20000 15000 15000 10000 10000 5000 5000 0 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 0 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 Base <17 Base 17-18 Alternative <17 Alternative 17-18 Base Szenario All Alternative Szenario All  Mauretania

Validation - Nepal [80,max) [75,80) [70,75) [65,70) [60,65) [55,60) [50,55) 2001_Data Male [45,50) 2001_Data Female [40,45) 2011_Projection Male 2011_Projection Female [35,40) 2011_Data Male [30,35) 2011_Data Female [25,30) [20,25) [15,20) [10,15) [5,10) (min,5) 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000