An introduction into multi-region input-output modelling Manfred - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

An introduction into multi-region input-output modelling Manfred Lenzen Manfred Lenzen ISA, The University of Sydney Australia with thanks to Tommy Wiedmann and Barney Foran for some of the slides

Recommended introductory reading

A common problem in impact modeling direct direct FUNCTIONAL FUNCTIONAL effects UNIT ? complete supply- chain analysis

National Accounting

Basic input-output structure to to from

The input-output round-robin

The infinite supply-chain Supplier level: • • • • • ∞ • • • • • • • • • • . . . • • • • • Mining machinery • • • • • . • • • • • M L E T S B M L E T S B M L E T S B M L E T S B M L E T S B M L E T S B 2 Iron ore Iron ore Mining Legal Elect. Trans. Steel Banking 1 Vehicle Organisation On-site Boundary Downstream Upstream Product 1 Product 2 Consumer Industry

Input-output theory I Source: Wiedmann

Input-output theory II Source: Wiedmann

Input-output theory III Source: Wiedmann

Demand-pull model Source: Foran et al ., 2005

Supply-push model Source: Foran et al ., 2005

Environmental satellite accounts INDUSTRIES CONSUMERS ONOMY DUCTS PRODUC ECONO ENVIRON- EXTENSIONS EXTENSIONS MENT Source: Wiedmann

INDUSTRIES CONSUMERS ONOMY DUCTS Financial Financial ECONO PRODUC transactions transactions … … EXTENSIONS ENVIRON- EXTENSIONS MENT energy use, carbon emissions, water use, pollutants, raw material extractions, waste, … land use Source: Wiedmann

INDUSTRIES CONSUMERS PRODUCTS ONOMY DUCTS Industries Industries ECONO PRODUC PR use products… … and energy, EXTENSIONS ENVIRON- EXTENSIONS water, MENT energy use, carbon emissions, water use, etc. pollutants, raw material extractions, waste, … land use Source: Wiedmann

INDUSTRIES CONSUMERS PRODUCTS ONOMY DUCTS ECONO PRODUC PR Consumers buy products… Consumers buy products… … and use energy, EXTENSIONS ENVIRON- EXTENSIONS water, MENT energy use, carbon emissions, water use, etc. pollutants, raw material extractions, waste, … land use Source: Wiedmann

Environmental input-output analysis: theory Source: Foran et al ., 2005

IO tables and satellite accounts: a successful marriage Input Input- -output output tables tables Input Input - - output output tables tables Satellite Satellite Satellite Satellite accounts accounts accounts accounts for each indicator for each indicator for each indicator for each indicator Source: Foran et al ., 2005

Environmental input-output analysis: applications – a University

An airport proposal EIS

A comparison of organic farms

LCAs of wind turbines

Wind turbine production

Household consumption baskets

Household emissions catchment

System closure – Capital flow long-term accounting

SAMs

SAM multipliers

Household spending rounds – the Brazilian trickle-up effect

Household spending rounds – the Brazilian trickle-up effect

Production Layer Decomposition Source: Foran et al ., 2005

Wheat & other grains 0.40 Production layers 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 rem 3 Employment 0.10 2 10. 1 dir 0.05 Government revenue Income 0.00 Income ($) 1. 1. Exports Land disturbance Wheat & other grains 2.5 0.1 2.0 Imports Water use 1.5 1.0 Gross operating surplus Primary energy rem 3 2 1 GHG emissions 0.5 dir 0.0 Employment (min)

Area plots Carbon Footprint (t CO2) Car Company Direct Suppliers of Suppliers … suppliers Source: Wiedmann

System completeness tests

A corporate example

Structural Path Analysis Source: Foran et al ., 2005

Structural Path Analysis

Structural path analysis GHG emissions (kg CO 2 -e/$) Wh 0.687 (0; 67.%) El Wh 0.0234 (1; 2.3%) Ch Wh 0.0173 (1; 1.7%) Fo Wh 0.0114 (1; 1.1%) Wheat & other grains Sc Cg Wh 0.00936 (2; 0.91%) 1.2 Fe Wh Fe Wh 0.00925 0.00925 (1; 0.9%) (1; 0.9%) Wt Wh 0.00874 (1; 0.85%) 1.0 Rd Wh 0.00853 (1; 0.83%) 0.8 El Rf Wh 0.00487 (2; 0.47%) 0.6 Rf Wh 0.00485 (1; 0.47%) Oi Fo Wh 0.00343 (2; 0.33%) rem 0.4 3 El Wt Wh 0.00263 (2; 0.25%) 2 1 0.2 El Ch Wh 0.00261 (2; 0.25%) dir El St Wh 0.00259 (2; 0.25%) 0.0 GHG emissions (kg CO2-e) Fr Sc Cg Wh 0.0022 (3; 0.21%) Ap Wh 0.00165 (1; 0.16%) Bc Mp Ho Wh 0.00162 (3; 0.16%)

Core topic: Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) frameworks

What is an MRIO table?

AUS BRA CHN GER JAP RUS UK USA BRA steel AUS Iron ore

The Eora tables www.worldmrio.com www.worldmrio.com

Guiding principles − Detail : 187 countries, 15000 sectors � LCA and footprint − Dynamics : Time series 1990-2010 � trends and scenarios − Flexibility : Basic prices, margins and taxes − Transparency : Close adherence to the raw data − − Uncertainty : Standard deviation estimates Uncertainty : Standard deviation estimates � decision-making � decision-making − Reliability : Info on constraint violations � quality assurance − Timeliness : Delay of 2 years − Budget : 12 person-years initially, < 2 person-years /y continually; − Openness : Public, free availability for research

Conceptual framework Raw data Hardware Initial estimate Constraints Optimiser Structure MRIO table Web-deployed data, visualisations, diagnostics

Raw data Input-output tables from 74 national statistical offices, Input-output data from Eurostat, IDE-JETRO and OECD, UN National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, UN National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, UN National Accounts Official Data, UN Comtrade international trade database UN Servicetrade international trade database

The Eora tables: 187 countries 15,909 sectors 5 valuations 5 valuations 20 years = 3 Terabytes of information

The finer structure

Original sectors – rectangular matrices

Some qualifications …

Some qualifications: Data conflict

Some qualifications: Uncertainty

Website www.worldmrio.com

Website www.worldmrio.com

Website www.worldmrio.com

Expandable heat map

Expandable heat map

Expandable heat map

Data profile

Optimisation run diagnostics

Input-output analysis in ecology

Thank you ! www.isa.org.usyd.edu.au www.worldmrio.com