Dynamics of arboviral disease Arboviral diseases are THE emerging - PDF document

Medicine for Adventure Travel: Vivax August 2006 Malaria Dynamics of arboviral disease Arboviral diseases are THE emerging problem of the 21 st century: Zika epidemiology: the past five years p gy p y Annelies Wilder-Smith WHO Consultant on Vaccines for Arboviral Diseases Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine ZikaPLAN Scientific Coordinator Immediate Past President, International Society of Travel Medicine Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Travel Medicine CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Arboviral diseases are THE emerging problem of the Arboviral diseases are THE emerging problem of the 21 st century: Yellow fever 21 st century: chikungunya CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Arboviral diseases are THE emerging problem of the “Wake up call”: Epidemic arboviral diseases 21 st century: dengue What do they have in common? 390 million infections annually; Bhatt et al. Nature 2013 CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Alan J Magill MD, FACP 1

Medicine for Adventure Travel: Vivax August 2006 Malaria Relative Vectorial Capacity Aedes Aedes albopictus Aedes aegypti 1980-2009 2070-2099 Liu-Helmersson J, Stenlund H, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklöv J (2014) Vectorial Capacity of Aedes aegypti: Effects of Temperature and Implications for Global Dengue Epidemic Potential. PLoS ONE 9(3): e89783. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0089783 http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0089783 CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Population growth drives dengue in Singapore Variable Relative Risk (Relative contribution_ Population growth 42.7 (86%) Mean temperature 1.8 Climate variables combined 7.1 (14%) Population density facilitates transmission CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Massive urbanization without the appropriate infrastructure CISTM Washington DengueTools Alan J Magill MD, FACP 2

Medicine for Adventure Travel: Vivax August 2006 Malaria Other arboviral diseases West Nile Virus Distribution Pre-1999 CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Current Approximate West Nile Virus Distribution CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Japanese Encephalitis • Culex is the primary vector • Aedes • Anopheles CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Alan J Magill MD, FACP 3

Medicine for Adventure Travel: Vivax August 2006 Malaria Reasons for the geographic What is the next arbovirus outbreak? expansion of arboviral diseases • Modern transportation (Globalization) E Yellow fever • Climate change Rift Valley Spondweni VEE Kedougou • Virus evolution Ross River Japanese encephalitis O’nyong nyong Severity • Lack of effective vector control Wesselsbron Usutu Mayaro Bwamba • Demographic changes (Population growth and Sindbis Sepik population densities) Flavivirus Edge Hill  Environmental change Alphavirus  Socioeconomic factors Tembusu Bunyaviridae  Unprecedented urban growth Me Tri Probability of occurring CISTM Washington CISTM Washington CISTM Washington Alan J Magill MD, FACP 4