Downtown Morgantown Retail Feasibility Presented By: Patrick M. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Downtown Morgantown Retail Feasibility Presented By: Patrick M. Bowen Bowen National Research June 30, 2015

Purpose of Analysis • Assess the downtown’s current retail market and conditions, and evaluate the demographic characteristics and trends that affect retail space needs • Identify retail categories within downtown that are currently over/under served • Provide recommendations and strategies to maximize downtown retail opportunities

Scope of Work • Established Market Areas – Determined a Primary Trade Area (Downtown) and a Competitive Trade Area (Balance of Morgantown) • Evaluated Demographics – Conducted analysis of area demographic characteristics and trend: household income and disposable income • Surveyed Retail Space - Personally identified and surveyed downtown retail space; obtained data regarding retail square footage, rent-per- square foot, occupancy levels, quality, etc. Analyzed shopping centers located outside downtown that are currently capturing retail expenditures. • Conducted a Retail Gap Analysis – Compare Morgantown consumer expenditures with downtown’s success in capturing such expenditures • Conducted Stakeholder Interviews - Obtained local input on retail market conditions and ideas on strengths and weaknesses of the market • Provided Recommendations - Recommend specific types of retail opportunities to meet the needs of those retail categories that are under served and recommend strategies or approaches that might be taken to satisfy the identified retail needs.

Primary Trade Area (PTA)

Competitive Trade Area (CTA)

Competitive Shopping Centers

Population & Household Trends PTA CTA West Virginia U.S. Pop. H.H. Pop. H.H. Pop. H.H. Pop. H.H. 2014 Estimated 1,249 727 98,356 41,315 1,875,906 775,600 313,129,017 118,208,713 2019 Projected 1,357 800 106,982 45,331 1,902,231 788,581 323,986,227 122,665,498 Change 2014-2019 108 73 8,626 4,016 26,325 12,981 10,857,210 4,456,785 Percent Change 2014-2019 8.6% 10.0% 8.8% 9.7% 1.4% 1.7% 3.5% 3.8% Source: ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research Pop. - Population H.H. - Households Population Growth Rate (2014-2019) Household Growth Rate (2014-2019) 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.7% 8.0% 8.8% 8.0% 8.6% Percent Growth 7.0% Percent Growth 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% PTA CTA West Virginia U.S. PTA CTA West Virginia U.S. Location Location

Household Income Trends Households by Income PTA CTA 2014 2019 2014 2019 Household % Income # % # % # % # 22.1% <$15,000 408 56.1% 435 54.4% 9,839 23.8% 10,037 10.1% $15,000-$24,999 107 14.7% 103 12.9% 4,992 12.1% 4,593 8.6% $25,000-$34,999 53 7.3% 59 7.4% 3,652 8.8% 3,881 9.4% $35,000-$49,999 46 6.3% 48 6.0% 4,480 10.8% 4,244 15.2% $50,000-$74,999 39 5.4% 48 6.0% 6,443 15.6% 6,874 13.8% $75,000-$99,999 29 4.0% 42 5.3% 4,646 11.2% 6,237 11.8% $100,000-$149,999 29 4.0% 40 5.0% 4,263 10.3% 5,328 4.8% $150,000-$199,999 7 1.0% 10 1.3% 1,580 3.8% 2,193 4.3% $200,000+ 10 1.4% 16 2.0% 1,416 3.4% 1,940 100.0% Total 728 100.0% 801 100.0% 41,311 100.0% 45,327 Median HH Income $13,382 $13,810 $41,208 $49,583 Households by Income (2014) PTA CTA 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% % of Households 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <$15,000 $15K - $25K - $35K - $50K - $75K - $100K - $150K - $200,000+ $24,999 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 $149,999 $199,999 Household Income

Households by Disposable Income Households by DISPOSABLE Income (2014) PTA CTA Disposable Household Income # % # % <$15,000 419 57.6% 10,603 25.7% $15,000-$24,999 114 15.7% 5,748 13.9% $25,000-$34,999 53 7.3% 4,058 9.8% $35,000-$49,999 40 5.5% 5,349 12.9% $50,000-$74,999 46 6.3% 7,440 18.0% $75,000-$99,999 26 3.6% 3,597 8.7% $100,000-$149,999 17 2.3% 3,257 7.9% $150,000-$199,999 7 1.0% 701 1.7% $200,000+ 4 0.6% 558 1.4% Total 727 100.0% 41,311 100.0% Median Disposable Income $12,995 $35,505 Households by Disposable Income (2014) PTA CTA 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% % of Households 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <$15,000 $15K - $25K - $35K - $50K - $75K - $100K - $150K - $200,000+ $24,999 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 $149,999 $199,999 Disposable Household Income

Median Disposable Income by Age Median Disposable Income by Age of Householder (2014) <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ PTA Total Households 425 104 28 21 52 46 49 Median Disposable Income $11,330 $27,465 $23,279 $19,141 $15,578 $16,281 $12,250 CTA Total Households 8,693 8,177 5,395 5,727 6,216 3,955 3,148 Median Disposable Income $14,220 $38,821 $51,517 $52,847 $50,249 $37,032 $22,704 Median Disposable Income by Age (2014) PTA CTA $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 Household Income $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ Age

Demographic Findings The demographic picture of the Primary Trade Area (downtown) is uniquely different from the CTA. When compared to the CTA, the PTA is experiencing the following:  Similar population & household growth.  Much higher population density.  Lower median age.  Much higher share of renters.  Much lower share of family households.  Significantly lower median incomes.  Median disposable income 1/3 of CTA.

Factors Impacting Retail Trade in Downtown • The population base is 1,249. • Daytime employment is over 3,100 workers. • 12 bus lines and the Personal Rapid Transit service the downtown • WVU downtown campus has 12 residence halls and apartment complexes located adjacent to the downtown. • 2013 traffic counts on highways in downtown average 18,931 per day. • Hundreds of retailers and restaurants located within a 0.16 square mile. • Over 500 performances, festivals and annual events. • Over one mile of riverfront and creek side real estate, including Caperton and Deckers Creek Rails-Trails.

Downtown & City Retail Supply - Vacancies Total Total Total Total Leasable Vacant Vacant Vacancy Market Spaces Area* Spaces Area* Rate PTA (Downtown) 180 374,586 20 32,680 8.7% CTA 328 2,938,655 41 351,462 12.0% * Square Feet estimates based on 89 spaces for which information was available • The PTA (Downtown) has an overall retail vacancy rate of 8.7%, which is lower than the CTA vacancy rate of 12.0% (Morgantown area that excluded downtown) • The Midwest and South Atlantic Retail Space Vacancy Rates regions report vacancy rates of 12.0% 11.3% on average. 12.0% 11.0% 11.3% 11.3% 10.0% • The national retail vacancy 10.0% 9.0% Percent Vacant 8.0% 8.7% rate is approximately 10.0%. 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% PTA CTA Midwest Region South Atlantic U.S. Region Location

Existing Retail in Downtown

Downtown & City Retail Supply – Lease Rates Reported Annual Rent / Square Foot Market Range Average Median PTA (Downtown) $4.68 - $28.00 $12.67 $11.82 CTA $5.00-$26.00 $19.00 $20.00 • Median rent per square foot in the PTA (Downtown) is $11.82 • Median rent per square foot in the CTA is $20.00 • The Midwest and South Atlantic regions report a slightly lower rent per square foot of $16.00 to $18.00 Retail Space Median Rent per Square Foot $20.00 $20.00 $18.00 $18.00 $16.00 $16.00 Rent per Sq. Ft. $14.00 $12.00 $11.82 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 PTA CTA Midwest Region South Atlantic Region Location

Quality of Downtown Retail Quality Total Percentage Available Average Rating/ Number of Square of Total Square Vacancy Lease Class Properties Footage Space Footages Rate Rate A 15 30,174 8.1% 8,478 28.1% * B 129 274,490 73.3% 9,950 3.6% $12.48 C or Lower 36 69,922 18.6% 14,252 20.4% $10.41 100.0% Total 180 374,586 32,680 8.7% $12.67 Quality Rating: A = excellent / B = good / C = fair to poor *insufficient sample Retail Space by Quality Rating Retail Space Vacancy Rates by Quality Rating 80.0% 30.0% 70.0% 28.1% 25.0% 73.3% 60.0% Share of Space Percent Vacant 20.0% 50.0% 20.4% 40.0% 15.0% 30.0% 10.0% 20.0% 5.0% 18.6% 10.0% 3.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% A B C or Lower A B C or Lower Quality Rating Quality Rating