Development and Applications of CARP Development and Applications of CARP Numerical Models Numerical Models Kevin J. Farley Robin Landeck Miller Cleaning up the Harbor Results of the Contamination Assessment & Reduction Project The National Museum of the American Indian, New York, New York November 29, 2007 201• 529 • 5151 www.hydroqual.com 11-12-2007
Acknowledgements Acknowledgements HydroQual, Inc. Port Authority NY/NJ CARP Data Collection James Wands NJ DOT OMR • NYSDEC • Subir Saha • NY USGS • Bob Santore CARP MEG • NJDEP • Aaron Redman • Joel Baker • NJ USGS • Nick Kim • Frank Bohlen • NJHDG • John St. John • Richard Bopp • NJADN • Scientific Advisors: • Joe DeLorenzo Rutgers University • Dominic Di Toro • Joe DePinto • Stevens Institute • Robert Mason • Bill Fitzgerald • Other Data Sources HRF • Rocky Geyer Mark Reiss Jim Lodge • Larry Sanford • • Dennis Suszkowski • Jay Taft Jim Meador • •
CARP Model Goals CARP Model Goals Model Development … to develop a mechanistically-based mass balance model for toxic contaminants in NY/NJ Harbor Model Application … to determine the impacts of external loads and in-place contaminants on current contaminant levels in water, sediment and biota … to project future conditions in the harbor based on source reduction programs and other remedial actions
Overall Framework Overall Framework Regulatory Issues/Initiatives Source � Dredged Material Guidelines Characterization for Beneficial Use (e.g., HARS Placement) Exposure Assessment � Water Quality Standards and (Mass Balance Model) Toxics TMDL � Superfund / NRDA Effects/Endpoint � HRE Restoration Efforts Assessment � Harbor Roundtable Objectives
Presentation Outline Presentation Outline • CARP Modeling Goals/Framework • Study Area / Loading Estimates • Modeling Approach / Calibration Results • Model “Hindcast” / “Clean Bed” Analyses Coffee Break (15 minutes) • Bioaccumulation / Endpoints • Contaminant Component Analysis • 2040 Projections
Study Study Area Area
Model sediment Model Grid 16,000 Grid column 16,000 water cells and
CARP Contaminants of Concern CARP Contaminants of Concern PCBs 209 PCB Congeners (modeled as 10 homologs) Dioxin/Furans 17 congeners (including 2,3,7,8-TCDD) Metals Cadmium and Mercury (including MeHg) PAHs 22 PAH compounds Pesticides 6 DDT related compounds 5 forms of chlordane
Source Characterization Source Characterization (Total of 63 Contaminants) (Total of 63 Contaminants) Contaminant Sources Source � 34 Tributaries Characterization � 99 STPs � > 700 CSOs Exposure Assessment � > 1,000 SWOs (Mass Balance Model) � Atmosphere � 6 Landfills � In-Place Contaminants Effects/Endpoint (Sediment Initial Conditions) Assessment � Plus Sediment, Organic Carbon and Nutrient Loads
Sediment Loads Sediment Loads Normalized Sediment Load (HydroQual, 1996) Normalized Sediment Load (HydroQual, 1996) Mohawk River, NY: NSL Analysis (log scale) 4.000 3.000 y = 1.2602x + 0.0843 2.000 2 = 0.6986 R Non-Flood 1.000 log Ln Flood Linear (Flood) 0.000 Linear (Non-Flood) y = 2.982x - 0.4191 -1.000 2 = 0.7834 R -2.000 -3.000 -2.000 -1.500 -1.000 -0.500 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 log Qn
Summary: Annual Sediment Loads Summary: Annual Sediment Loads (1992-2001) (1992-2001) 2.5 Sediment Loads (tonnes/year) Millions 2.0 1.5 New Jersey New York 1.0 Upper Hudson 0.5 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Organic Carbon and Nutrient Loads Organic Carbon and Nutrient Loads (2001-02) (2001-02) Flows 400,000 Atmosphere � STPs: (monthly) DMRs Tributaries Metric Tons per Year � CSOs / Storm Water: Storm Water 300,000 (hourly) landside models CSOs STPs � Tributaries: (daily) USGS 200,000 flow data Concentrations 100,000 � 1994-95 SWEM data � Separate evaluations for “above Poughkeepsie” 0 loads Organic C Total N Total P
Chemical Loads Chemical Loads (STPs, CSO/SWOs, Landfills, Atmosphere) (STPs, CSO/SWOs, Landfills, Atmosphere) Concentrations = ⋅ � 99 STPs (~120 samples) Chemical Load Q C � > 700 CSOs (~20 samples) � > 1,000 SWOs (~20 samples) Flows � 6 Landfills (~20 samples) � STPs: (monthly) DMRs � CSOs / Storm Water: � Load estimates based on (hourly) landside models medians of measured total concentrations � Landfills: (annual) from Litten (2003) Atmospheric Loads � Annual estimates largely from NJADN
Chemical Loads Chemical Loads (Tributaries) (Tributaries) Wallkill (New Paltz) – Tetra-CB Concentrations � 34 Tributaries (~50 samples) � Large variations in measured total concentrations
Chemical Loads Chemical Loads (Tributaries) (Tributaries) = ⋅ + ⋅ Chemical Load Q C L r dis POC oc � Flow: (daily) USGS � L POC : (daily) from Normalized POC Load (NPL) evaluations
CARP Loads CARP Loads (2,3,7,8 TCDD) (2,3,7,8 TCDD)
CARP Loads CARP Loads (Hexa-CB) (Hexa-CB)
Exposure Assessment Exposure Assessment (Mass Balance Modeling) (Mass Balance Modeling) Purpose of Modeling Source � To evaluate mechanistic Characterization descriptions of contaminant fate processes through model calibration Exposure Assessment � To confirm / extend (Mass Balance Model) interpretation of field data � To determine contaminant contributions from various Effects/Endpoint sources Assessment � To provide forecasts of future conditions under various remedial options
CARP Modeling Framework CARP Modeling Framework
ECOM ECOM (Hydrodynamic Sub-Model) (Hydrodynamic Sub-Model) ECOM � Developed as part of SWEM � Reviewed as part of previous studies � Model Input: freshwater flows, meteorology, ocean boundary condition � Model Output: detailed 3-D flows, temperature, salinity, bottom shear stress Hydrodynamic Results � Moderately strong tidal action in main stem � Density-driven estuarine circulation � Large seasonal movement of salt wedge
ST-SWEM ST-SWEM (Sediment Transport / (Sediment Transport / Organic Carbon Sub-model) Organic Carbon Sub-model) ST-SWEM � Extension of SWEM to include sediment transport � Settling velocities = f(TSS, salinity) to simulate coagulation effects � Resuspension = f(excess shear stress) for “fluff” and consolidated sediment � Model Input: hydrodynamics; sediment, carbon and nutrient loads, meteorology � Model Output: detailed sediment, POC and DOC transport (plus sediment sulfide and SRR for Cd and Hg model)
Sediment Accumulation Pattern Sediment Accumulation Pattern
Deposition: Sediment Freshet Spring Seasonal Transport Seasonal Transport
Seasonal Transport (Continued) Seasonal Transport (Continued) Sediment Deposition: Fall ST-SWEM Results Estuarine trapping of sediment Seasonal mixing of sediment in main stem Spatial / seasonal carbon dynamics
RCA-TOX RCA-TOX (Chemical Fate and Transport Sub-model) (Chemical Fate and Transport Sub-model) HOCs � 3-phase partitioning = f(Temp., Salinity) � Volatilization = f(Two-film Theory, Temp- dependent Henry’s Constant) � Chemical degradation considered negligible � Model Input: contaminant loads, sediment initial conditions � Model Parameters: Chemical-specific K ow , field-derived K POC , Henry’s Constant � Model Output: water and sediment exposure concentrations
Field-derived Partition Coefficients Field-derived Partition Coefficients (Chlorine Substitution Pattern) (Chlorine Substitution Pattern) Non-Planar PCB Congeners Planar PCB Congeners Temp. and Salinity Correction Temp. and Salinity Correction a DOC = 0.08; No Temp DOC adj. a DOC = 0.08; No Temp or Salinity DOC adj. (2, 3 and 4 Ortho Chlorines) (0 and 1 Ortho Chlorines) 10 10 9 9 8 8 log K oc log K oc 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 log K ow log K ow Effect of black carbon (soot) on partitioning of co-planar PCBs Ghosh et al (2203), Accardi-Dey and Gschwend (2003), Lohmann et al. (2005)
RCA-TOX Calibration / Verification RCA-TOX Calibration / Verification ( ∼ 110 Water and ∼ 70 Sediment Samples) ( ∼ 110 Water and ∼ 70 Sediment Samples) Tetra-CB Kill van Kull Raritan River Raritan River
RCA-TOX Calibration Results RCA-TOX Calibration Results (Tetra-CB) (Tetra-CB) Model Results Field Results
RCA-TOX Calibration Results RCA-TOX Calibration Results (Tetra-CB) (Tetra-CB) Field Data Model Results Probability
Metals, PAH, and Pesticide Modeling Metals, PAH, and Pesticide Modeling (see poster session) (see poster session) HOC Validation for PAHs and Pesticides � 22 PAHs � 6 DDT Related Compounds � 5 Forms of Chlordane Metals Model Development � Cadmium � Mercury (including MeHg)
Model “Hindcast” & “Clean Bed” Analyses Model “Hindcast” & “Clean Bed” Analyses The hindcast and clean bed analyses are important diagnostics of the temporal dynamics of the CARP models. More importantly, these results provided preliminary information for management decisions.
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