Developing Energy Emission Scenarios for South Asia Using AIM Family - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Developing Energy Emission Scenarios for South Asia Using AIM Family of Models Rajesh Nair , Junichi Fujino, Toshihiko Masui, Mikiko Kainuma, Yuzuru Matsuoka AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) team The 9 th AIM International Workshop National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan, 12-14 March 2004

Structure of Presentation A Brief Introduction to the South Asian energy • Scenario Top Down Analysis • Some Preliminary results • Linking Top Down and Bottom Up Analysis • For Non CO 2 GHG analysis • Future Agenda • Building South Asian Regional Cooperation • Scenario

Socio-Economic Indicators for South Asian Countries HDI Rank Population in GDP per capita Electricity Country M illion (2000) (PPP US $) 2001 Consum ption Per Capita 2000 (KW h) Bangladesh 139 129.15 1610 96 Bhutan 136 2.12 1833 - India 127 1013.62 2840 355 M aldives 86 0.26 4798 - Nepal 143 23.93 1310 56 Pakistan 144 145.54 1890 352 Srilanka 99 18.82 3180 293 HDR, 2003 •The region is among the less developed regions of the world. •A period of transition in economic, political, social and legal structures •Rapidly increasing energy demand with inadequate sources of supply •GHG emissions expected to increase sharply

The Context • Diversity in geography, climate, energy resources, political and economic structures • Energy mix: Non-commercial Energy 1% 8% 13% 43% 44% 56% 35% Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Commercial Energy • Energy and environment security concern

Energy Supply Indicators for South Asian Countries (2002) Country Fossil Fuel Proven Reserves Crude Oil Dry Natural Coal (Bst) (Mb) Gas (Tcf) Bangladesh 57 10.6 0 India 4,728 22.8 82.4 Nepal 0 0 0.002 Pakistan 208 21.6 3.2 Total 4,993 55.1 85.6 Mb - Million barrels Bst- Billion short tons Tcf – Trillion cubic feet Carbon emissions are expected to increase from about 300 MMTC in 2002 to about 850 MMTC by 2030

The Framework South Asian Energy and Emissions Status & Trends Key Driving Creation of Database for Forces Model Applications Future Scenario Generation Models(AIM/CGE, AIM/Enduse, AIM/Trend) Future Projections for the Region Energy Mix Emissions (CO2 & Non CO2)

Top Down Analysis � Some Preliminary results……….

Structure of AIM/ CGE (Asia) MAC MAC MAC MAC non- non- non- non- Energy Energy CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Electricity Electricity resource resource input input mix mix depletion depletion CO2 CO2 Fuels Fuels input input Electricity Electricity input input Non-energy Non-energy goods goods MAC MAC CO2 CO2 input input non- non- input input CO2 CO2 consumption consumption Production Sectors Production Sectors MAC MAC t t multi-gas emission multi-gas emission n n CO2 CO2 e e non- non- rent rent m m consumption consumption t t CO2 CO2 s s e e v v n n i i Government Government right right CO2 CO2 MAC MAC primary primary non- non- factors factors CO2 CO2 Household Household

Global Methane Emissions 2.8 2.4 •Global CH 4 emissions are 2.0 expected to increase from about 1.6 Giga tones of carbon 1.6 equivalent (Gt-C eq) to about 1.2 2.25 Gt-C eq by the end of the present century. 0.8 0.4 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 ANZ JAP & KOR CHN IND SEA USA CAN & MEX WEU & OWE EEU & FSU OPE BRA & LAM AFR & ROW

Global Carbon Emissions 12 •Global Carbon emissions increase from about 7 GtC in 10 the year 2000 to about 12 GtC Giga tones of Carbon in the year 2100 8 •For South and South East 6 Asia the emissions triple 4 •Carbon emissions from India increase from about 280 2 MMTC in 2000 to about 1.58 billion tones of C. 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 ANZ JAP & KOR CHN IND SEA USA CAN & MEX WEU & OWE EEU & FSU OPE BRA & LAM AFR & ROW

Future Intensities for India Indexed 2000=100 100 80 • Strong decoupling between GDP growth and carbon 60 emissions 40 • Also reduction in carbon intensity of electricity 20 observed 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Carbon/GDP

Carbon Per Capita Trend for India 400 •India’s per capita carbon 300 emissions is expected to increase by about three and a half times 200 •From about 0.26 tons per 100 person in 2000 to close to 1 ton per capita by 2100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Carbon/Capita

Linking Top Down and Bottom Up Analysis � For Non CO 2 GHG analysis…..

Linking Top Down And Bottom Up Analysis • Attempts to link top down and bottom up analysis in an integrated modeling framework • Analysis of scenarios using AIM/CGE (Asia) and AIM/Enduse • AIM/CGE: A top down computable general equilibrium model • AIM/Enduse: A bottom up partial equilibrium model

Bottom Up Modeling Approach for Non CO 2 Gases • Bottom Up analysis using the AIM/Enduse model • AIM/Enduse models energy and materials through detailed representation of technologies • Based on a linear optimization framework where system cost is minimized under several demand and supply constraints • The model is being structured to include Non CO 2 gas emission sectors and linking to removal processes • Current work includes developing cost and technology database for emission sources and removal processes .

Modeling Emission Sources and Removal Processes • Most studies currently on Non CO 2 gases are long term economic analysis of independent projects • The major sources of cost and technological information for Bottom Up analysis include • USEPA reports (costs mainly pertain to those prevailing in Developed countries) • Studies by the European Commission, IPCC reports • Estimates from sector experts in Developing countries (India), for developing country analysis • The above sources provide information for linking Non CO 2 emission sources to removal processes

Emission Sources and Removal Processes Emission Emissions Driving force Removal process source (CH 4 ) in 2000 considered (MMTCE) Coal Sector 123 Coal consumption Degasification and pipeline injection Enteric 476 Livestock population Partial replacement of Fermentation Roughages with Concentrates Manure 61 Livestock population Anaerobic digester Management technology Solid Waste 213 Urban human Landfill gas to Management population electricity Natural Gas 244 Natural gas Better maintenance of sector consumption equipments and replacement of devices Paddy 177 Area under cultivation Under discussion

Emission Sources and Removal Process Linkage IC Engines Electricity Ventilation Catalytic Steam Rec. CH4 Thermal Heat Oxidizers Turbine Systems GHG CH4 from Underground Coal Mining Abatement Rec. CH4 Technology 1 Power Degasification Systems Generator Nat. gas Gas enrichment Abatement Pipeline Rec. CH4 technology Technology 2 Coal sector emissions and linkages to removal processes

Emission Sources and Removal Process Linkage Waste Water Electricity Dairy Cattle Rec. Covered Anaerobic Manure IC Engine Swine & Digester Slush C H4 Heat Dairy sector emissions and linkages to removal processes

Emission Sources and Removal Process Linkage (Soft technology options) • Enteric CH 4 • Partial replacement of roughages with concentrates • Improved Genetics with Improved Level of Feed Intake Rice CH 4 Emissions • • Changes in drainage systems to reduce anaerobic conditions • Replace urea with ammonium sulfate (AS) • Soil N 2 O Mitigation Options • More uniform spreading of fertilizer to increase efficiency • Avoid fertilizer loss by leaving fertilizer free zone at field edges

Future Agenda � Building South Asian Regional Cooperation Scenario……….

Regional Energy-Electricity Markets Gas/Oil Energy Markets Nepal/Bhutan Hydro Gas � Coal � � Electricity Hydro � Gas (Elec./Water)

Why South-Asia Energy-Electricity Market Integration ? • Diversity of Energy Resources among countries • India relies on poor quality domestic coal • Bangladesh has reserves of Natural Gas • Nepal and Bhutan have Hydro power potential • Sri Lanka needs to import fuel for power • Pakistan has an important role as a transit state • Little Energy/ Electricity Trade in the Region

Regional Cooperation Scenarios • Capture benefits of cooperation through comparing • Reference case Sceneraio vis-à-vis • Medium cooperation scenario vis-à-vis • Strong cooperation scenario • The cooperation scenarios differ in terms of the strength of the cooperation regimes defined by the ability to overcome existing barriers to cooperation

Conclusion: The AIM framework for South Asian Analysis • AIM/CGE • Energy emission scenarios for the South Asian region. • AIM/Enduse • Linking AIM/Enduse with Top Down analysis for more robust Non CO 2 GHG analysis • AIM/Trend • Results would help set up a regional model for analyzing South Asian regional cooperation scenarios.

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