Demographi phic Turni ning ng P Points Populat ation P Projections f for the U United S States: 2 2020 020 t to 2 2060 060 Jonathan Vespa Lauren Medina David Armstrong * US Census Bureau 1
Population growth US Population: Projections 2020-2060 » Projected growth of (in millions) 400 78 million people 300 between 2017 and 2060 200 » 25% growth rate 100 0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2
Population growth Percentage growth in the US population (percent increase compared to the prior decade) 20 » Despite continued population growth, the 15 growth rate is 10 projected to slow 5 0 1950- 1970- 1990- 2010- 2030- 2050- 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 3
Population aging By 2035, we project that older adults will outnumber children for the first time in US history 4
Population aging 2020 1960 » By 2030, every baby Men Women 85+ 80-84 boomer will be over 65 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 » Number of 65+ will grow 40-44 35-39 from 49 to 95 million 30-34 25-29 20-24 between today and 2060 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 5 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 10 5 Population in millions Population in millions 5
Population aging 2060 1960 » Number of 65+ will grow Men Women 85+ 80-84 from 49 to 95 million 75-79 70-74 65-69 between today and 2060 60-64 55-59 50-54 65+ grow by 92% 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 85+ grow by 198% 25-29 20-24 15-19 100+ grow by 618% 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 5 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 10 5 Population in millions Population in millions 6
Consequences of population aging More older adults than kids More retirees than workers » Older adults are projected to » Old age dependency ratios projected to outnumber kids beginning in 2035 double by 2060 » Between today and 2060: 21 in 2010 41 in 2060 <18 population grow by 8% » Working age population will remain relatively constant while the old age 65+ population grow by 92% population grows 7
Projected population change (in millions) Net international Migration becomes the driver of Natural increase migration population change 2017 1.4 1.0 The cause? A rising number of deaths: 2020 1.3 1.0 2020 2060 2030 1.0 1.1 Births 4.1 4.4 million 2040 1.1 0.5 Deaths 2.8 3.9 million 2050 0.4 1.1 2060 0.5 1.1 8
Population diversity In coming decades, we project that racial and ethnic diversity will continue growing 9
Projecting race and ethnicity Change Measurement Need » Self-identification » People who select one and » Why project race at all? and self-reporting of only race (“race alone”) » Demographic experiences race change over time » People who select one race or like fertility and mortality others (“race alone or in differ across groups combination with others”) 10
Projected decline in white population 79 Projected race alone or in combination 74 The cause? (percent of the population) 2016 2060 » Largely driven by a rising number of deaths 28 to an aging white 19 18 14 11 population 7 2 2 1 .5 Hawaiian or American Asian Black Hispanic White Pacific Islander Indian 11
Rising deaths Projected births and deaths (White population) The cause? 3.0 million » Largely driven by a 2.8 million rising number of deaths 2.7 million to an aging white 2.2 million population 2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 12
Demographic turning points Aging Immigration Diversity » More older adults » Immigration projected to » White population than kids by 2035 become the primary driver of projected to shrink population growth starting in » More young children » Due to demographic 2030 than elderly by 2060 momentum of younger, » Due to population aging and more racially diverse a rising number of deaths cohorts 13
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