Ansonia-Derby Temporary Regional School Study Committee - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ansonia-Derby Temporary Regional School Study Committee Demographics and Enrollment June 2019

Introduction ▪ Demographic, Housing and Economic Trends ▪ Enrollment Trends ▪ Enrollment Projections ▪ Long-Range Alternatives ▪ Recommendations 2

Demographics: Total Pop. Actual and Projected Populations Ansonia and Derby 24,000 21,160 20,991 20,859 22,000 20,171 19,249 19,039 20,000 18,554 18,403 18,000 16,000 13,391 13,232 13,069 14,000 12,902 12,599 12,391 12,346 12,199 12,000 10,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Derby Actual Ansonia Actual Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CT DOT ▪ Both communities experienced a low in total population in 1990 with small increases since then ▪ Both communities estimated to have relatively stable populations this decade, but not likely to meet CT DOT projections ▪ 2017 population estimates Ansonia: 18,953 ▪ Derby: 12,700 ▪ 3

Demographics: Pop. Density Both communities have ▪ more dense cores and more suburban areas However, due to ▪ features such as Osbornedale Park in Derby, only Ansonia reported to have more urban levels of population density 4

Demographics: Ansonia Age Dist. Ansonia Population Change, by Age Group Ansonia Population, by Age Group 2010 to 2017 2010 to 2017 85 years and over 85 years and over -45 80 to 84 years 80 to 84 years -246 75 to 79 years 75 to 79 years 82 70 to 74 years 70 to 74 years 128 65 to 69 years 65 to 69 years 389 60 to 64 years 60 to 64 years 390 55 to 59 years 55 to 59 years 157 50 to 54 years 50 to 54 years -341 45 to 49 years 45 to 49 years 14 40 to 44 years 40 to 44 years -330 35 to 39 years 35 to 39 years -87 30 to 34 years 30 to 34 years 118 25 to 29 years 25 to 29 years -318 20 to 24 years 26 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years -232 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 286 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years 186 5 to 9 years Under 5 years -387 Under 5 years -500 0 500 1,000 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2010 Male Population 2010 Female Population Source: ACS 2010 (5-YR), ACS 2017 (5-YR) 2017 Male Population 2017 Female Population ▪ Decrease in children under 5 years, though large spike in 10 to 14 age group ▪ Ansonia saw an increase in ages between 55 and 79, primarily because of baby boomer generation 5

Demographics: Derby Age Dist. Derby Population Change, by Age Group Derby Population, by Age Group 2010 to 2017 2010 to 2017 85 years and over 85 years and over -76 80 to 84 years 80 to 84 years -241 75 to 79 years 75 to 79 years -118 70 to 74 years 70 to 74 years 206 65 to 69 years 65 to 69 years 93 60 to 64 years 60 to 64 years 163 55 to 59 years 55 to 59 years 229 50 to 54 years 50 to 54 years 376 45 to 49 years 45 to 49 years -201 40 to 44 years 40 to 44 years -153 35 to 39 years 35 to 39 years -337 30 to 34 years 175 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years -9 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years -214 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 92 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years -184 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years 327 5 to 9 years Under 5 years -254 Under 5 years -500 0 500 1000 1000 500 0 500 1000 2010 Male Population 2010 Female Population Source: ACS 2010 (5-YR), ACS 2017 (5-YR) 2017 Male Population 2017 Female Population ▪ Similar decrease in children under 5; however, spike in 5-9 year olds ▪ Derby saw an increase in 50-74 year age group primarily because of baby boomer generation 6

Demographics: School Age Pop. School Aged (5-17) Population Change Town 2010 2017 Net Change % Change Ansonia 3,314 3,540 226 6.8% Derby 1,803 2,125 322 17.9% Total 5,117 5,665 548 10.7% Source: ACS 2010 (5-YR), ACS 2017 (5-YR) ▪ Both communities are estimated to have experienced an increase in school aged population (not necessarily students) this decade ▪ Derby experienced a greater increase ▪ Collectively, there was a 10.7% increase, about 450 children 7 Source: ACS 2010 (5-YR), ACS 2017 (5-YR)

Demographics: Births Annual Births to Resident Mothers 2000 - 2018 500 426 412 416 420 450 411 399 390 390 379 360 370 400 347 354 345 339 360 337 322 350 308 282 300 253 246 243 255 237 251 246 228 224 253 220 201 221 210 227 211 197 250 188 200 150 165 153 175 166 151 136 117 134 127 158 153 147 134 153 100 140 124 129 133 50 97 0 Ansonia Derby Combined Source: CT DPH ▪ 2017 and 2018 data still preliminary ▪ Ansonia births peaked in the early 2000s, but has had a relatively stable average of 213 annual births over the last 5 years ▪ This average rate is about 15% below peak levels ▪ Derby births peaked in the mid-2000s, although it experienced an unusual spike in 2013 and an unusual dip in 2017 ▪ Averaging about 20-22% below peak levels 8

Demographics: Households Ansonia Households by Type - 2017 Derby Households by Type - 2017 % of Total % of Total Household Type Estimate Household Type Estimate Households Households Total Households 6,981 100% Total Households 4,919 100% 2.71 2.53 Average Household Size Average Household Size With Own Children Under 18 Years 1,804 26% With Own Children Under 18 Years 1,125 23% Married Couple Families 2,815 40% Married Couple Families 1,962 40% Average Household Size 3.67 Average Household Size 3.25 With Own Children Under 18 Years 1,135 16% With Own Children Under 18 Years 648 13% Under 6 Years 224 3% Under 6 Years 83 2% Under 6 and 6 to 17 Years 309 4% Under 6 and 6 to 17 Years 112 2% 6 to 17 Years Only 602 6 to 17 Years Only 453 Female Householder, No Husband 1,270 18% Female Householder, No Husband 710 14% Average Household Size 3.33 Average Household Size 3.68 With Own Children Under 18 Years 530 8% With Own Children Under 18 Years 407 8% Under 6 Years 79 1% Under 6 Years 93 2% Under 6 and 6 to 17 Years 55 1% Under 6 and 6 to 17 Years 145 3% 6 to 17 Years Only 396 6 to 17 Years Only 169 Nonfamily Households 2,477 35% Nonfamily Households 2,019 41% 1.17 1.26 Average Household Size Average Household Size Household Living Alone 2,170 31% Household Living Alone 1,657 34% Source: 5-YR American Community Survey 2013-2017 Source: 5-YR American Community Survey 2013-2017 Very similar household compositions ▪ About a quarter of all households have own children under the ▪ age of 18 About 40% of all households are married couple families ▪ Slightly more non-family households in Derby – correlate with ▪ aging profile 9

Housing: Householders Age 65+ Derby has more than ▪ twice as many householders over age 65 on the eastern side of town Housing stock ripe for ▪ turnover Also more single-family ▪ housing units on this side of Derby In Ansonia, about 25% ▪ of all households are headed by a resident age 65+ Also highest in eastern ▪ part of City with higher numbers of single-family housing units 10

Economic: Unemployment Rates Ansonia, Derby, New Haven County and CT Unemployment Rates ▪ Unemployment 12% rates mimic State 11.00% 10.20% 10.10% 9.90% and County trends, 10% 9.30% 9.20% though higher in 8.00% both cities 8% 7.00% 7.00% 8.10% 6.50% 7.40% 7.10% 6.10% 7.20% ▪ Recovery is back to 5.40% 5.60% 6% 6.40% pre-recession levels 5.50% 4.70% 4% 4.70% 4.60% 4.30% ▪ Ansonia consistently 4.20% 3.70% 4.00% slightly higher 2% unemployment than Derby 0% Ansonia Derby New Haven County Connecticut Source: CT DOL 11

Housing: Permits Ansonia and Derby Housing Permits 1997 - 2017 70 60 55 50 40 38 40 33 33 30 22 22 21 26 20 16 14 22 13 13 20 5 10 17 3 7 15 10 5 5 5 2 5 13 5 4 3 3 2 8 6 7 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 Ansonia Derby Source: CT DECD ▪ Permitting remains at low levels over past decade ▪ Spikes in the late1990s ▪ Communities are largely built out – new housing will be redevelopment 12

Housing: Ansonia Sales Source: Warren Group RE – Town Stats Housing sales are primarily single-family home sales ▪ Sales started to decline prior to Recession ▪ Slow recovery from Recession, but experienced strongest sales in a decade the ▪ last three years 13

Housing: Derby Sales Derby Housing Sales 1990-2018 250 218 204 201 192 200 190 180 173 168 157 98 154 150 86 142 141 150 74 136 101 133 90 132 131 130 66 123 120 95 117 114 92 76 50 102 73 100 54 43 48 72 53 100 102 67 37 51 78 77 76 64 55 74 38 40 59 27 30 25 120 118 116 32 107 50 102 100 23 91 87 84 85 82 81 80 78 76 77 72 70 66 64 59 60 56 52 51 50 48 42 36 0 1-Fam Condo Source: Warren Group RE – Town Stats Condo unit sales are an important component of local housing market – make up ▪ about 40% of all sales over the last decade Recovery from Recession began in 2012, appears to be plateauing ▪ 14

Housing: Rental Units Similar rental occupancy ▪ rates 40% of housing units in ▪ Ansonia 43% of housing units in ▪ Derby Significant stock of duplex, ▪ three- and four-family homes concentrated in Route 8 corridor Source: ACS 2017 (5-YR) 15