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Anna Moss and Alex Wynn HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE www.cornwall-insight.com ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
• The knock-on effect of the British Gas price increase: o Switching levels at their highest levels in almost four years o British Gas posts the largest energy account loss in the history of the survey o SaMS make their largest energy account gain in the lifetime of the • Regional pricing strategies and white label suppliers – how can suppliers target specific regions? • Why does the 250,000 energy account threshold matter? • How has the PPM price cap affected account growth? www.cornwall-insight.com 3
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 • Largest energy account loss in 0 -90 the lifetime of the survey -180 -185 -100 • British Gas’ electricity account holding falls below 6mn -200 Energy account loss (k) • 650,000 losses attributed to -300 collective switch, white label fixed price tariffs and prepayment -760 -400 tariffs • 150,000 “reflect market switching -500 trends” and impact of price rise in -600 September • Despite a marked improvement -700 in competitiveness of fixed price tariffs, within ~£100 of cheapest -800 www.cornwall-insight.com 4
Price differential with cheapest fix on the market 0 £0 -10 £50 Energy Accounts (k) -20 -15 £100 -30 -30 -40 £150 (£/year) -40 -40 -50 -45 £200 -50 -50 -60 -60 £250 -70 -65 -70 -70 -80 -75 -75 -75 £300 Account change British Gas price differential Sainsbury's Energy price differential www.cornwall-insight.com 5
Energy Accounts (k) -20 -15 -10 20 25 • • • 10 -5 15 0 5 Most came within £50 of cheapest Pattern of gains and losses reflects these changes Clear regional strategies from all large suppliers apart from SSE Eastern -5 -5 East Midlands London 10 Account change MANW 0 20 Midlands 10 Northern E.ON UK -15 North Western 20 Southern South Eastern 5 South Wales 0 Price differential South Western 0 Yorkshire -5 South Scotland 5 North Scotland 0 £160 £140 £120 £100 £80 £60 £40 £20 £0 Price differential with cheapest fix on the market (£/year) Energy Accounts (k) -20 -10 20 30 40 50 10 0 Eastern 0 East Midlands 0 -10 London Account change MANW 15 Midlands 0 Northern 0 EDF Energy 25 North Western -10 -15 Southern www.cornwall-insight.com South Eastern 15 South Wales Price differential South Western 5 40 Yorkshire 30 South Scotland North Scotland 0 £250 £200 £150 £100 £50 £0 6 Price differential with cheapest fix on the market (£/year)
700,000 600,000 500,000 Electricity transfers 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Large suppliers to SaMS SaMS to large suppliers Large supplier to large suppliers SaMS to SaMS www.cornwall-insight.com 7
900 855 805 800 755 700 600 Energy accounts (k) 565 535 470 500 465 385 400 365 335 320 300 235 200 100 0 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 www.cornwall-insight.com 8
• Medium suppliers 300 265 separately segmented 200 this quarter 100 80 100 Dual fuel accounts (k) • Ovo Energy records its 30 30 15 20 30 25 5 largest energy account 0 -5 -5 gain in lifetime of survey -25 -40 -40 -50 -100 • Bulb records fast growth -200 on the back of a competitive fixed tariff -300 through the summer and -350 -400 onwards SSE E.ON UK npower First Utility Ovo Energy Utilita Co-op Energy Spark Bulb British Gas Scottish Power EDF Energy Small suppliers Utility Warehouse Green Star Energy Economy Energy Extra Energy • Spark wins on price in the prepayment market www.cornwall-insight.com 9
Accounts (k) 200 250 300 100 150 50 0 E Flow Energy iSupply Energy Iresa Octopus Energy Ecotricity Avro Energy Robin Hood Energy PFP Energy Electricity accounts Green Network Energy Good Energy Bristol Energy ENGIE Solarplicity SO Energy Gnergy Gas accounts One Select Tonik Energy Toto Energy Affect Energy Energy share Green Energy Future Energy Together Energy Fischer Energy Our Power Go Effortless Energy Powershop www.cornwall-insight.com Pozitive Energy Better Energy Zog Energy Daligas 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 10 Energy share (%)
Small and Medium Supplier energy share 70 25% 60 Number of suppliers 20% 50 at 31 October 15% 40 30 10% 20 5% 10 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Small and medium suppliers Large suppliers SaMS energy share at 31 October* www.cornwall-insight.com 11
350 300 250 Energy accounts (k) 200 150 100 50 0 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Utilita Spark Economy Energy E www.cornwall-insight.com 12
100% 6% 6% 6% 6% 90% 15% 16% 15% 18% 80% 11% 9% 10% 10% 70% 9% 10% 12% Market share (%) 9% 60% 11% 12% 11% 13% 50% 40% 31% 26% 21% 26% 30% 20% 23% 22% 21% 10% 19% 0% Electricity Gas Energy Dual fuel SSE/npower British Gas E.ON UK EDF Energy Scottish Power Medium suppliers Small suppliers www.cornwall-insight.com 13
• Increasing partnerships o Ovo Energy, E.ON UK and Good Energy move into electric vehicle market • Price cap debate and political pressure result in announcements over default fixed tariffs • BEIS publishes a draft bill for the proposed price cap on standard variable tariffs o Select committee starts pre-legislative scrutiny of the bill • Some calling for CMA engagement measures to be fully trialled • Ofgem’s consultation on supplier hub could be biggest overhaul in institutional arrangements for supply www.cornwall-insight.com 14
New Cornwall Insight training course Commercials of Energy Retailing 27 February 2018 | London | £595 (+VAT) This course will help you understand: • Where opportunities exist in the retail market • How suppliers scope, enter, operate, and compete • How energy retailing might change in-line with technology, policy and regulatory developments www.cornwall-insight.com 15
www.cornwall-insight.com 16
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