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Controller time and delay costs a trade-off analysis L. Delgado, A. Cook, S. Cristobal and H. Plets Dr Luis Delgado Senior Research Fellow University of Westminster _______________________ Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute

  1. Controller time and delay costs a trade-off analysis L. Delgado, A. Cook, S. Cristobal and H. Plets Dr Luis Delgado Senior Research Fellow University of Westminster _______________________ Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute _______________________ Belgocontrol University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  2. Overview • • Background Analysis and results – Regulations costs • Methodology – Mechanism analysis – Data • Conclusions – Costs modelling – ATCO availability – Adding extra ATCO hours rules University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  3. Background University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  4. • Staff capacity shortage (ATCO) • Adding extra ATCO hours • Industrial actions (ATC) Background • Dynamic cost indexing • Meteorological events with • A ‐ CDM local effects at airports Improved airline passenger • reaccommodation policies I ndicators Mechanism(s) ATM Network . Stakeholders . . Airlines ANSPs Airports … University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  5. Background 2014 • Average daily en-route ATFM delay increased by 17.4%: – ATC Capacity (+ 27.8%) – En-route ATC staffing (+ 44.9%) – En-route weather (+ 23%) University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  6. Background 2014 • Average daily en-route ATFM delay increased by 17.4%: – ATC Capacity (+ 27.8%) – En-route ATC staffing (+ 44.9%) – En-route weather (+ 23%) Adding • 9 163 aircraft affected extra ATCO • 88.9 K min delay hours (average 9.7 min/ac) • EUR 4.3 M delay Strategic operations (e.g. sectorisation) University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  7. Methodology - Data University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  8. Data • Demand Data Repository 2 (DDR2) – AIRAC 1313 to AIRAC 1413 (12DEC13 to 07JAN15) – Traffic data • 1 349 217 flights went through a regulation in total • 1 304 607 flights in scope – MTOW >=15 tonnes – Military and cargo excluded – ATFM regulation data – ACC data • Duration • Regulations by ACC • Location • ATCO available • Reason University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  9. Methodology - Costs modelling University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  10. Cost modelling • Airline delay cost – 2014 values for at gate cost [1] – Explicit values for 15 core aircraft • covering 63% movements in ECAC area – Other aircraft fit of cost with √ MTOW * * r 2 min = 0.98 [1] Cook, A. and Tanner, G. European airline delay cost reference values – updated and extended values (Version 4.1). (In press for December 2015). University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  11. Cost modelling • ATCO costs – Only ATCO hours cost considered • (pre ‐ )tactical level – Values of ATCO duty-hour cost from [2] [2] EUROCONTROL, 2014. ATM Cost-Effectiveness (ACE) 2013 benchmarking report with 2014-2018 outlook. University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  12. Methodology - ATCO availability University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  13. ATCO availability • From a tactical perspective – Flexible rostering – Controller mobility • Staff shortages – Delays • Over-staffing – Cost inefficiencies University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  14. Methodology - Adding extra ATCO hours rules University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  15. Adding extra ATCO rules University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  16. Adding extra ATCO rules Bounded by maximum number of Two-controllers ATCO for the steps ACC Two-controllers steps Two-controllers steps University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  17. Adding extra ATCO rules • Two rules: Rule Description Benefit Drawback • Assign minimum number of ATCO hours required to Extra controller only Allows Fractional- increase capacity. added between start fractional Rule 1 shift ATCO • Minimum number of ATCO and end of hours to be cost added; maximum regulation added theoretical efficiency: as baseline No Whole ATCO shifts optimisation Full-shift of 7 hours used as Rule2 • Closer to operational costs of opening ATCO cost increment for 8 hour schemes/ro regulation blocks stering University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  18. Analysis and results - Regulations costs University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  19. Regulation costs 3.2M min airport 6.6M min en-route 22 850 ATFM regulations 9.8M minutes Average delay 55 EUR/min EUR 156M airport Primary delay EUR 333M (reactionary not en-route considered) University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  20. Regulation costs Most penalising regulation • 5.7% regulations • 6.8% ATFM delay EUR 30 M • University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  21. Regulation costs • Regulations applied to airspace with more than one configuration – 1 112 regulations due to staff shortage (64 did not generate delay) – 80 930 flights • 33 648 with delay assigned (30 095 commercial flights) – Average 18 min per delayed flight – EUR 26M due to delay • average 50 EUR/min University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  22. Regulation costs 0.3 4 979 7 229 flights flights 0.25 21 14 0.2 min/flight min/flight 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 ED LC LP LG EP LF LZ LS LD EG University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  23. Regulation costs Top 50 regulations by delay cost University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  24. Regulation costs By ANSP University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  25. Regulation costs By ANSP University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  26. Regulation costs By ANSP University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  27. Regulation costs By ACC University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  28. Regulation costs By regulation University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  29. Analysis and results - Mechanism analysis University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

  30. Mechanism analysis • ATCO available – 1 112 regulations under study • 198 regulations (17.8%) some period with maximum ATCOs University of Westminster Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015 Belgocontrol

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