CONSULTANT TEAM PRESENTATION ON PA SEPT 14 REVISED PLAN DRAFT - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CONSULTANT TEAM PRESENTATION ON PA SEPT 14 REVISED PLAN DRAFT ► September 27, 2018

AGENDA ► Introduction ► High level Plan metrics ► Cross-Cutting Observations ► C&I Observations ► Residential Observations ► Low Income Observations ► Next Steps www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 2

INTRODUCTION ► Plan well written with more EEAC recommendations addressed ► Small increase in savings over April 30 th draft − Electric savings increased to 2.47% from 2.29%, but still well below Consultant recommendation of 2.90% − Gas increased from 1.04% to 1.08%; Consultants at 1.26% − Lifetime MMBtu increased 6%, but 30% lower than the Consultant estimate ► As a result, Consultant summary focused on high level indicators and written text − More detail provided, but still needed in some important areas − Increase in benefits larger than increase in savings • Additional amount attributable to inclusion of Avoided Cost of Compliance with GWSA ► Consultant Team opinion: Savings too low and costs too high; More work needed www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 3

ELECTRIC PROGRAM ANNUAL SAVINGS OVER TIME Portfolio Annual Electric Savings *Three-Year Average. Calculations revised 1,800,000 using updated sales forecasts, which 3.18% increase % of sales. 1,600,000 2.93% 3.26%* 1,400,000 Planned 2.90%* 2.50% 1,200,000 Evaluated 2.47%* Q4 2017 1,000,000 MWh Consultant Assessment of Potential 2.29%* 800,000 PA 2016-2018 April 30th Draft Consultant Goals Estimate 600,000 PA 2019-2021 April 30th Draft 400,000 PA 2019-2021 Sept 14th Draft 200,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 4

CONSULTANT 2019-2021 ELECTRIC PROGRAM ANNUAL SAVINGS GOALS PA April 30 th PA Sept 14 th Assessment of Consultant Annual MWh Potential Estimate Draft Plan Revised Plan Residential 1,162,468 1,085,416 935,090 1,008,723 Low Income 117,426 117,426 105,057 110,377 C&I 2,908,432 2,522,472 1,898,835 2,056,517 2,938,982 Total 4,188,327 3,725,314 3,175,617 PA April 30 th PA Sept 14 th Assessment of Consultant Savings as % of Draft Plan Revised Plan Potential* Estimate Sales Residential 2.81% 2.62% 2.26% 2.43% Low Income 2.13% 2.13% 1.91% 2.04% C&I 3.57% 3.10% 2.52% 2.33% Total 3.26% 2.90% 2.29% 2.47% *Calculations updated using updated sales forecasts www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 5

CONSULTANT 2019-2021 ELECTRIC PROGRAM LIFETIME SAVINGS GOALS PA April 30 th PA Sept 14 th Consultant Consultant Lifetime MWh Draft Plan Revised Plan Estimate Estimate Residential 4,820,892 4,617,602 4,156,652 4,156,652 Low Income 1,003,086 1,137,336 1,138,068 1,138,068 C&I 23,133,721 27,766,487 32,314,112 32,314,112 Total 28,957,699 33,521,426 37,608,833 37,608,833 www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 6

CONSULTANT 2019-2021 ACTIVE DEMAND MANAGEMENT GOALS PA April 30 th PA Sept 14 th Consultant ADM Summer Peak MW Estimate Draft Plan Revised Plan Res & LI T-stats/Direct Load Control 25.5 9.5 15.1 C&I Curtailment 140.2 106.6 138.0 Storage - BTM 84.3 4.0 33.5 Total (w/ storage) 250.0 120.1 186.6 www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 7

CONSULTANT 2019-2021 GAS PROGRAM ANNUAL SAVINGS GOALS PA April 30 th PA Sept 14 th Assessment of Consultant Annual Therms Potential Estimate Draft Plan Revised Plan Residential 75,587,050 53,841,700 44,549,544 41,901,021 Low Income 7,433,051 7,433,051 7,076,868 6,814,099 C&I 44,263,209 35,588,928 28,520,920 34,205,532 Total 127,283,310 96,863,679 80,147,332 82,920,651 PA April 30 th PA Sept 14 th Assessment of Consultant Savings as % of Draft Plan Revised Plan Potential* Estimate Sales Residential 2.16% 1.54% 1.28% 1.20% Low Income 1.78% 1.78% 1.70% 1.63% C&I 1.16% 0.93% 0.75% 0.90% Total 1.65% 1.25% 1.08% 1.04% *Calculations updated using updated sales forecasts www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 8

GAS PROGRAM ANNUAL SAVINGS OVER TIME Portfolio Annual Gas Savings 45 *Three-Year Average. Calculations revised using 40 1.65%* updated sales forecasts. 35 Planned 1.26%* 1.25% 30 Evaluated 1.08%* Million Therms 1.24% Q4 2017 25 1.04%* 1.09% Consultant Assessment of Potential 20 PA 2016-2018 April 30th Draft Consultant Goals Estimate 15 PA 2019-2021 April 30th Draft 10 PA 2019-2021 Sept 14th Draft 5 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 9

CROSS CUTTING – TRAINING ► Provide general customer training on managing demand, GHG, heat pumps, fuel options − Provide training to energy specialists on how to convey fuel options and information ► Increase specificity in HVAC and Lighting training for professionals: − RCx implementers, MBx implementers, controls programmers, architects, engineers, designers ► Define a strategy to educate C&I contractors in small business heat pump opportunities www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 10

CROSS CUTTING – EVALUATION ► Proactively plan for market effects now to reap savings later - “call your shot” (i.e. HVAC) ► Est. protocols for creating test initiatives or pilot programs, tracking variables, and publishing results summaries ► Adjust methods to reflect changes in market and technologies (i.e. Updating TLED delta watts) ► Ensure value to customers by continually increasing realization rates www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 11

CROSS CUTTING – ENERGY OPTIMIZATION PROMOTED AS FUEL NEUTRAL APPROACH ► PAs plan to: − Provide information on fuel/system options, cost, and environmental impacts − Offer conversion incentives for oil/propane to electric hp − Structure equipment incentives based on $ per MMBtu saved ► Customers won’t receive specific heating/hot water system recommendation ► No C&I fuel switching included in Plan www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept. 14 Revised Plan | 12

CROSS CUTTING – SOME ENERGY OPTIMIZATION UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ► Many different baseline conditions and scenarios; unclear how incentive levels, savings, and costs determined ► Oil to gas fuel switching included in Plan ► Proposed number of heat pumps considerably lower than Consultant assumption ► No discussion in Plan of fuel choice in new homes/businesses ► Unclear whether or how customers will be targeted www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 13

C&I - CUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT STRATEGIES NEED MORE DETAIL ► Need more specificity in how to effectively engage customers and promote systems approaches ► Provide more detail about how to educate customers − C&I HVAC and lighting controls, RCx, heat pumps ► Need to be more proactive in soliciting new program ideas (e.g. NYSERDA, CA) ► Unclear whether PAs engaging enough market channels effectively www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 14

C&I – HVAC AND COMMISSIONING ARE CRITICAL TO THE FUTURE ► Custom HVAC is large source of C&I usage as well as program savings… ► Yet HVAC savings have been declining; Plan must describe efforts to reverse trend and reflect in savings goals ► Plan must reflect best practices for commissioning across existing and new construction − Accelerate planning for and adoption of best practices ► Plan needs to drive change in HVAC market in order to capture market effects into the future www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 15

C&I – LIGHTING IS STILL #1 FOR SAVINGS ► Lighting savings remain the largest C&I end use opportunity ► Controls and training are a focus in revised Plan ► Controls are the biggest variable for both savings and demand − Multiple controls are common (occupancy, daylighting, dimming) − Network controls can respond to demand events − Plan includes some training for controls, but more support could be justified by demand savings www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 16

C&I – PROCESS SAVINGS DECLINE ► Plan discusses an expansion of the industrial initiative ► Plan says PAs doubling efforts to help customers and remove barriers ► But proposed savings lower than achieved in recent years www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 17

C&I - COUNCIL UPDATES AND REPORTING ► Maintain current reporting ► Add reporting on additional indicators: − Twice annual updates on vendor-based programs: • Upstream lighting • Small Business Turnkey/Direct Install • Process and other industrial initiative savings • Strategic Energy Management (SEM) • Grocery, restaurant, CRE, and other vendor- based segment engagement strategies ► Regular CIMC updates on progress in HVAC, commissioning, customer engagement, training, connection between EMV and implementation www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan | 18