- Case study 2 - Concurrent Eruptions of Mt.KLIUCHEVSKOI and Mt.SHEVELUCH in Kamchatkan Peninsula SECOND VAAC Best Practices Seminar Montreal, 12 to 13 June 2012 Toshiyuki Sakurai Tokyo VAAC / JMA
Contents Overview (Eruption details) Review (Tokyo VAAC's reaction) Discussions Visible / Discernable Ash Collaboration Confidence Level(Prediction methodology) Summary
Overview (Eruption details)
Location and Eruption time Eruptions of Mt.KLIUCHEVSKOI and Mt.SHEVELUCH in the part of North of Kamchatkan Peninsula between October 27th and 29th in 2010
Record of the eruptions KLIUCHEVSKOI Oct 27,2010 1059Z Detection of ash cloud on the satellite imagery at KLIUCHEVSKOI 1059Z FL210 by MTSAT imagery 2010Z FL230 by the report from KEMSD(Received 2024Z) Oct 28,2010 0359Z-0459Z Ash cloud is indistinguishable from it of SHEVELUCH Ceasing emissions from crater 0619Z Final VAA for KLIUCHEVSKOI(Handover to SHEVELUCH) SHEVELUCH Oct 27,2010 2231Z Eruption at SHEVELUCH 2231Z FL230 by the report from KEMSD(Received 2327Z) FL300-FL330 by the report from KVERT,PAWU and AVO(Received 22-23UTC) Oct 28,2010 0359-0459Z Detection of ash cloud on the satellite imagery at SHEVELUCH Ash cloud is indistinguishable from it of KLIUCHEVSKOI 0459Z FL250 by MTSAT imagery 0615Z VAA for Ash clouds including it from KLIUCHEVSKOI
Overview of satellite imagery The two volcanoes erupted at the same time. The ash clouds was observed over a large region. Movies: 27/0532Z – 30/2359Z
Review (Tokyo VAAC's reaction)
Review of initial reaction KLIUCHEVSKOI(KLIU),SHEVELUCH(SHEV) (KLIU) VAA191 27/1358Z(Img 1259Z) FL210 <- Satellite(IR1&GPV) (KLIU) VAA192 27/1755Z(Img 1659Z) FL220 <- Satellite(IR1&GPV) (KLIU) VAA193 27/2051Z(Img 1959Z) FL230 <- Report(Video) (KLIU) VAA194 27/2350Z(Img 2259Z) FL230 <- Report(Video) (SHEV) VAA097 27/2336Z(Text only) FL230 <- Report(Seismic) (SHEV) VAA098 28/0007Z(Text only) FL300 <- Report(Unknown)
Indistinguishable ash clouds KLIUCHEVSKOI(KLIU),SHEVELUCH(SHEV) (SHEV) VAA099 28/0615Z(Img 0459Z) FL250 <- SATELLITE(IR1&GPV) (KLIU) VAA195 28/0619Z(Text only) Final VAA It was difficult to distinguish the ash clouds between KLIUCHEVSKOI and SHEVELUCH . Tokyo VAAC continued issuing the VAA for SHEVELUCH, because SHEVELUCH was more active than KLIUCHEVSKOI. We need to discuss how to deal with eruptions at the same time.
Discussions - Visible/Discernable Ash - Collaboration - Confidence Level(Prediction methodology)
Visible/Discernable Ash
Collaboration with Volcano Observatory KLIUCHEVSKOI 27/1059Z FL210 by MTSAT imagery(IR1 & GPV) 27/2010Z FL230 by the e-mail(Video) from KEMSD(27/2024Z) SHEVELUCH 27/XXXXZ FL330 by e-mail(Unknown) from KVERT(27/2202Z) 27/2231Z FL230 by e-mail(Seismic) from KEMSD(27/2327Z) 272338/28053842 FL300 by SIGMET from PAWU(27/2342Z) 272338/28053842 FL300 by e-mail(About SIGMET) from AVO(27/0002Z) 0359-0459Z Ash cloud is detected on satellite imagery Ash cloud is indistinguishable from it of KLIUCHEVSKOI Volcanological observatories in the area of Tokyo VAAC KVERT (Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team) SVERT (Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team) KEMSD (Kamchatkan Experimental & Methodical Seismological Deparatment) PHIVOLCS (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology)
Record of handover Record of VAA for SHEVELUCH Tokyo:(SHEV) VAA099 28/0615Z(Img 0459Z) FL250 Anchorage:(SHEV) VAA001 28/0815Z(Text only) RMK:PLEASE SEE FVFE01 RJTD 28/0615 ISSUED BY TOKYO VAAC THAT DESCRIBES CONDITIONS NEAR THE ANCHORAGE VAAC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY Tokyo:(SHEV) VAA100 28/1149Z(Img 1059Z) FL250 Tokyo VAAC sent FAX Sheets to ask the request of handover to Anchorage VAAC. Anchorage:(SHEV) VAA002 28/1310Z(Img 1310Z) FL250 Anchorage VAAC issued VAA for the ash cloud in their responsibility area. Tokyo:(SHEV) VAA101 28/1817Z(Img 1659Z) FL250 Tokyo VAAC issued VAA for the ash cloud in our responsibility area. Tokyo:VAA100 Anchorage:VAA002
Necessity of handover Limit of the area MTSAT imagery using Tokyo VAAC (65N-35S,70E-170W) Limit of the area of dispersion model using Tokyo VAAC (75N-75S,70E-140W) Tokyo VAAC plan to develop new global dispersion model. Limit of the field of view of MTSAT (70N-70S,70E-140W) We can’t track ash clouds out of the field of view of geostationaly satellite.
HRS(Handover Request Sheet) Tokyo VAAC uses the form fax- sheets in Japanese and English for handover requests. Tokyo VAAC sends HRS with VAA, VAG, VAGI and other information. VAGI(Not ICAO Product) shows latest aea of ash clouds.
OBS VA CLD(Initial ash polygon) Excerpt from BP/1 Tokyo VAACs approach
Dispersion and trajectory model How to determine ash particles for dispersion and trajectory model in Tokyo VAAC ? Initial ash particles are observed ash boundary. A ash column is inverted pyramid shape. Top of ash column = Estimated height Bottom of ash column In the case of Crater height >= 3000m Bottom of ash column = Crater height In the case of Crater height < 3000m and Estimated height >= 10000m Bottom of ash column = 5000m In the Case of Crater height < 3000m and Estimated height <10000m Bottom of ash column =1000m Inverted pyramid shape.
Prediction result Yellow low – FCST FCST VA CLD VA CLD +6 HR (Fore +6 HR (Forecast polyg polygon) Blue Blue – Obser Observed ash ash cloud cloud by by satel satellite.
Observation and Prediction In In this this case case, the estim the estimated heig height may be may be low, low, so so we we updated the heigh upd the height to to FL25 FL250 in in next advi next advisory. Yellow low – FCST FCST VA CLD VA CLD +6 HR (Fore +6 HR (Forecast polyg polygon) Black Blac – Obser Observed ash ash cloud cloud by by satel satellite
OBS VA CLD for Confidence levels Whe hen there there are are a a lot of lot of mete meteorological cloud clouds, we we need to nee to cons consider part parts cove covered with them with them. Yellow low – FCST FCST VA CLD VA CLD +6 HR (Fore +6 HR (Forecast polyg polygon) Thin black Thin black – Obser Observed ash ash cloud cloud by by satel satellite Thick black Thic black – Prediction & iction & Observation rvation
OBS VA CLD(T=0) for Confidence levels Confidence fidence Level Level Criteria f teria for T=0 T=0 High (meets all 3) • More than 2/3 of polygon contains identified/discernible ash cloud , and • Ash cloud edges( with respect to polygon) mostly (2/3) discernable, and • plume height and/or ash cloud top reported or measured (objectively) (e.g., Radar, Lidar, satellite, etc) Medium (meets 2) • Between 1/3 and 2/3 of polygon contains identifiable/discernible ash cloud. • Between one third and two thirds of ash cloud’s edges discernable • Plume height and/or ash cloud top estimated from recent data (<12 hours) Low • Less than1/3 of polygon contains identiable/discernable ash cloud. • Ash cloud edges uncertain. • Plume height and/or ash cloud top unconfirmed Excerpt from BPS/1
Part covered with weather cloud Difficult t to determine t the o occupied a area Thick black Thic black line line – Prediction & iction & Observation rvation Aqua Aqua line line – Occup Occupied area area
Confidence Levels cloud -> High High More than 2/3 More than 2/3 of of polyg polygon conta contains ident identified ash ash cloud ernable -> Mid Mid Betw Between one one third third and and two two third thirds of of ash ash cloud cloud's edges edges discernable objectively -> High High Ash cloud Ash cloud top top repor reported or or measu measured objec In In this this case case, Conf Confidence Level Level defin defines as as Mid. Mid. Thic Thick black black line line – Prediction & iction & Observation rvation Aqua Aqua line line – Occup Occupied area area
Confidence Levels In this case, Confidence Level define as Mid.
App Approach of of Darwi Darwin VAAC for Conf VAAC for Confidence Level Levels The confi The confidence leve level of of a a poly polygon edge edge Black Black line line – High confid High confidence ce Blue line Blue line – Med Med confid confidence Red line Red line – Low Low confic conficence
App Approach of of Darwi Darwin VAAC for Conf VAAC for Confidence Level Levels Black Black line line – High confid High confidence ce Blue Blue line line – Med Med confid confidence Red Red line line – Low Low confidcence dcence
Summary
Summary Overview (Eruption Overview (Eruption Details) Details) Geostationaly satellite imagery is a powerful tool to monitor ash clouds as the imagery can get routinely. Review Review (Tokyo (Tokyo VAAC's VAAC's reaction) reaction) We need to discuss how to deal with eruptions at the same time. Discussions Discussions Visible / Visible / Discernabl Discernable Ash Ash Split window technique is most reliable method to figure out ash clouds in a wide distribution. Forecasters can improve the quality of recognition to analyze IR/NIR/VIS imagery and to loop imagery.
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