Jeff Inwood Colorado River Management Arizona Department of Water Resources May 9, 2017
COLORADO RIVER SYSTEM 36% WYOMING Fontenelle RESERVOIR STATUS 82% TOTAL SYSTEM CONTENTS – 51% or 30.454 MAF Flaming Gorge As of May 1, 2017 UTAH COLORADO Lake Powell 50% 12.176 MAF 3,652 ft, WY 2017 79% Blue Mesa Equalization 3,604.7 ft Level 93% NEVADA Morrow Point Lake Mead 40% 10.404 MAF 94% Navajo 1,084.7 ft ARIZONA 1,075 ft, First NEW MEXICO Tier Shortage CALIFORNIA Data Source: United States Bureau of Reclamation
COLORADO RIVER BASIN FORECAST CENTER CURRENT SNOWPACK 2011 2017 2016 Median Source: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
COLORADO RIVER BASIN FORECAST CENTER INFLOW FORECAST COMPARISON
LAKE MEAD END OF ON MONTH ELEVATIONS April 2017 24-Month Study Projections Source: United States Bureau of Reclamation
Probabilities of Lower Colorado River Basin Shortage U.S. Bureau of Reclamation CRSS Model Run – August 2016 U.S. Bureau of Reclamation MTOM/CRSS Model Run – April 2017 (N = Negligible) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Probability of any level of shortage 0 N 31 32 34 (Mead ≤ 1,075 ft.) 1 st level shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 and 0 0 31 31 26 ≥1,050 ft) 2 nd level shortage (Mead <1,050 and 0 0 0 1 8 ≥1,025 ft) 3 rd level shortage (Mead <1,025) 0 0 0 0 <1
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