Colorado Long Term Light-Duty Vehicle On-road Emission Trends Gary - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

First Mexico City Remote Sensing Symposium March 27-28, 2014 Colorado Long Term Light-Duty Vehicle On-road Emission Trends Gary A. Bishop and Donald H. Stedman Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208 www.feat.biochem.du.edu gbishop@du,edu

Acknowledgments Coordinating Research Council E-23 / E-106 University of Denver Jim Sidebottom of the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment

History of FEAT Hardware

Historical Mexico City Measurements 5 Mexico City 1991 Mexico City 1994 4 Monterrey 1995 Mexico City 2006 Schifter et al Mean %CO Denver 2006 3 2 1 0 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 Mean %HC (C 3 ) Schifter et al., Environ. Monit. Assess (2008) 137:459 ‐ 470.

Colorado Measurements • Twenty one data sets from 1989 to 2014 with more than 389,000 records. • HC measurements start in 1991 and NO measurements in 1999 • All but three of the data sets were collected in the Denver area • All data and related publications are available at www.feat.biochem.du.edu

Colorado On-Road Mean Emission Trends 250 60 200 CO -8.9% 45 Mean gHC or NO/kg 150 -10.5% HC 30 Mean gCO/kg 120 25 -8.7% NO 100 20 80 15 60 10 40 5 20 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Measurement Year

Colorado On-road Fleet Age Trends 10 8 Fleet Age (years) 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Measurement Year

Colorado 99 th Percentile Trends gHC or NO/kg 99 1000 -4.4% CO 250 th Percentile -8.8% HC 800 -3.0% NO 200 600 150 gCO/kg 99 400 th Percentile 100 200 50 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Measurement Year

Colorado 99 th Percentile Emission Fractions 0.5 Fraction of Total Emissions CO HC 0.4 NO 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Measurement Year

Colorado 99 th Percentile Age Trends th Percentile (years) 20 15 10 Age 99 CO 5 HC NO 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Measurement Year

Denver 2014 Fleet Fractions 0.08 0.06 Fleet Fraction 0.04 0.02 0.00 1993 2000 2001 2005 2009 2013 Model Year

Denver 2014 and 2007 Fleet Age Fractions Comparison 2007 Denver Fleet 0.08 2014 Denver Fleet Fleet Fraction 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 25 20 15 10 5 0 Vehicle Age (years)

Denver 2014 Measured and Modeled Mean Emissions 30 2014 Measured Modeled (2007) 25 31% Mean g/kg 11% 20 15 28% 10 15% 5 0 CO HC x 10 NO x 10 NH x 10 3 Emission Species

Conclusions • Mean emissions in Colorado are decreasing at a faster rate than the 99 th Percentile emissions. • Emission distributions for all species are increasing in skewness with the 99 th percentile for CO and HC accounting for ~30% of the total. • The age of the 99 th percentile fleet continues to increase for CO and NO • The 2009-2010 recessions has resulted in the largest change in Colorado fleet age in the last 25 years and has slowed previous emission reduction rates.