Climate Change Research in Northeastern US and Eastern Canadian - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Research in Northeastern US and Eastern Canadian Forest Ecosystems Lindsey Rustad USDA Forest Service October 26, 2005, Albany New York

Overview • Set the Stage – Climate Change • Overview of Regional Research • A New Synthesis and Outreach Project

Keeling Curve

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Over the Last 1000 Years

700 Atmospheric CO 2 in 2100 Carbon Dioxide over (with business as usual) 600 the last 160,000 years and the next 500 100 years CO 2 concentration (ppmv) Lowest possible CO 2 stabilisation level by 2100 400 CO 2 now 300 200 100 160 120 80 40 Now Time (thousands of years)

The Greenhouse Effect Solar radiation CO 2

700 Variations of CO 2 in 100 years the Earth’s 600 surface temperature 500 for the past CO 2 concentration (ppmv) 160,000 years 400 Temperature in 100 yeas 300 10 Temperature difference 200 0 from now °C –10 100 160 120 80 40 Now Time (thousands of years)

Climate has changed globally…. � 0.6 o C increase in global mean temperature � Change in magnitude and distribution of precipitation (IPCC, 2001)

Climate has changed regionally… � 0.4 o C increase in mean annual temperature � 4 - 20% increase in mean annual precipitation � Increased variability in both temperature and precipitation (NERA, 2001)

Indicators of Climate Change (Tom Huntington et al.)

Indicators of Climate Change (Tom Huntington et al.) • Heating Degree Days 8 Sites in ME 9500 9500 Average HDD 9-yr moving avg HDD 9000 9000 Annua Average Heating Degree Days (>65 F) 8500 8500 8000 8000 ACADIA NATIONAL PARK EASTPORT FARMINGTON 7500 7500 GARDINER HOULTON 5N LEWISTON ORONO PORTLAND WSFO AP 7000 7000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Average of 8 Sites in ME, USHCN Data Sum of Days*degrees<65 F

Indicators of Climate Change (Tom Huntington et al.) • Heating Degree Days Boothbay Harbor, ME • Mean Annual Sea 11 Temperature (ÞC) Surface Temperature, 10 Boothbay Harbor, Me 9 • Boothbay Harbor, Me 8 7 6 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Indicators of Climate Change (Tom Huntington et al.) • Heating Degree Days Wild River, ME • Mean Annual Sea Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, ME • Water Temperature at • Boothbay Harbor, Me the Wild River, ME

Indicators of Climate Change (Tom Huntington et al.) • Heating Degree Days Piscataquis River, ME • Mean Annual Sea Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, ME • Water Temperature at • Boothbay Harbor, Me the Wild River, ME • Ice Thickness, Piscataquis River, ME

Indicators of Climate Change (Tom Huntington et al.) • Heating Degree Days Lilac Phenology • Mean Annual Sea Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, ME • Water Temperature at • Boothbay Harbor, Me the Wild River, ME • Ice Thickness, Piscataquis River, ME • Day of first bloom, Lilac, NE USA

Clean Air/Cool Plant

Climate will continue to change globally….

Climate will continue to change globally…. � 1.4 to 5.8 o C increase in mean annual temperature (IPCC, 2001)

Climate will continue to change globally…. � 1.4 to 5.8 o C increase in mean annual temperature � Change in quantity and distribution of precipitation (IPCC, 2001)

Climate will continue to change globally…. � 1.4 to 5.8 o C increase in mean annual temperature � Change in quantity and distribution of precipitation � Increased frequency and magnitude of severe weather events including droughts, floods, and HURRICANES! (IPCC, 2001)

Climate will continue to change regionally…. � 3.1 to 5.3 o C increase in mean annual temperature � 10-30% increase in precipitation � Increased frequency of drought (Canadian Model) � Greater intra- and inter- annual climate variability (NERA, 2001)

So what?

So what? Temperature and moisture are two of the fundamental drivers of all chemical and biological processes

The Research • Experimental Manipulations • Biological Observations • Gradients • Modeling

Experimental Manipulations • Temperature Regional Synthesis Huntington Wildlife Forest Harvard Forest MGS Howland Forest MEGS # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Ecosystem warming sites # Rustad, L.E., J.M.Melillo, M.J. Mitchell, I. J. Fernandez, P. A. Steudler, and P. J. McHale . 2000. Effects of soil warming on C and N cycling in Northern U.S. forest soils. In: Mickler, R., R. Birdsey, and J. Hom (eds.).pp.357-381. Responses of Northern U.S. Forests to Environmental Change. Springer- Verlag New York Inc.

Experimental Manipulations • Temperature Huntington Wildlife Forest Huntington Wildlife Forest BOREAS MN Peats Ny Alesund Abisko (4 sites) Harvard Forest Harvard Forest MGS MGS Toolik Lake (2 sites) Howland Forest Flakaliden Howland Forest CLIMEX MEGS MEGS TERA Great Dun Fell Mols (VULCAN) Ecocells Kiskun Sag (VULCAN) # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Jasper Ridge # # # # # Inner Mongolia Grassland # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # RMBL # # # # # # McMurdo Dry Valleys Shortgrass Steppe (2 sites) Rio Mayo Wytham Oldebroek (VULCAN) ORNL (3 sites) BCCIL Capo Caccia (VULCAN) Tallgrass Prairie (2 sites) Clocaenog (VULCAN) Garraf (VULCAN) Ecosystem warming sites Ecosystem warming sites # # Rustad, L.E., J. Campbell, G.M. Marion, R.J. Norby, M.J. Mitchell, A.E. Hartley, J. H.C. Cornelissen, J. Gurevitch, GCTE-NEWS. 2001. A Meta- analysis of the response of soil respiration, net N mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming. Oecologia 126: 543-562.

Experimental Manipulations • Temperature Speuld Ysselsteyn Gardsjon Rhinelander Duke Forest Aber Forest Cumbria Cedar Creek Huntington Wildlife Forest Huntington Wildlife Forest Huntington Wildlife Forest BOREAS BOREAS MN Peats MN Peats Ny Alesund Ny Alesund Abisko (4 sites) Abisko (4 sites) Urbana-Champaign Harvard Forest Harvard Forest Harvard Forest MGS MGS MGS Toolik Lake (2 sites) Toolik Lake (2 sites) Flakaliden Howland Forest Howland Forest Flakaliden Howland Forest Caribou/Poker Creeks Mekrijarvi CLIMEX CLIMEX MEGS MEGS MEGS Amli TERA TERA Great Dun Fell Great Dun Fell Mols (VULCAN) Mols (VULCAN) Kopparasmyren Ecocells Ecocells Kiskun Sag (VULCAN) Kiskun Sag (VULCAN) # # # # # Braunschweig Nevada Desert # # N # # # # # # # # # # # $ # # # Giessen # # # # # # # # Jasper Ridge # # # $ Jasper Ridge N # # N # # # N # # $ N # # # Ñ # # # Inner Mongolia Grassland Inner Mongolia Grassland # $ N # # $ # # # # # # # Ñ # # # # # # # N $ # # # # # # # # # # # N Ñ # N # $ Sky Oaks N # # # # $ # # # # N # # # $ # N $ $ $ # # # # N N $ $ $ Ñ # # # # $ # $ # # N # N N N N N # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # N N # # # # # # $ # Shizuikuishi # N N # # Ñ # # # N # # # # $ # # # # # N # # $ # # # # # # # # Ñ # # Ñ # # # # # ÑÑ # # # # Ñ N # # # # # # # # $ # $ $ Ñ Ñ $ # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Ñ # # $ $ # # # # # # # Ñ # Ñ # Ñ # # # # # Central Valley # $ # # # # # # Ñ # # # Solling Forest # # # # Ñ $ # # Valentine Eastern Sierra Reserve Wageningen Fraser Forest Godollo Lochvale Munich Stillberg-Davos ELA Fernow New Delhi Catskills $ IES # Eschikon Hofstetten RMBL RMBL Bear Brook Les Chaux-des-Breuleu Maricopa $ $ # # Yabulu # Pancake Hall Creek # # # # Woods Lake Bulls Mt. Ascutney Rapolano Pontville Hubbard Brook Viterbo Pack Forest # # # # # Alptal Skogaby Dublin McMurdo Dry Valleys Shortgrass Steppe (2 sites) McMurdo Dry Valleys Klosterhede Shortgrass Steppe (2 sites) Rio Mayo Rio Mayo Wytham Wytham Oldebroek (VULCAN) Flagstaff Oldebroek (VULCAN) ORNL (3 sites) ORNL (3 sites) BCCIL Mojave Capo Caccia (VULCAN) BCCIL Capo Caccia (VULCAN) Tallgrass Prairie (2 sites) Santa Rita Tallgrass Prairie (2 sites) Clocaenog (VULCAN) Garraf (VULCAN) # Ecosystem warming sites Clocaenog (VULCAN) Garraf (VULCAN) Ecosystem warming sites Ecosystem warming sites # # Sevilletta $ CO2 sites (FACE) Big Bend Clermont-Ferrand Ñ Precipitation sites (PrecipNet) Norman Konza Prairie N Nitrogen sites 20 peer-reviewed papers 1 book 2 book chapters

• Temperature Experimental Manipulations o C Experimental Temperature Increase 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 NY_AL AB_SHEF AB450LO ABMBLO CPER AB1150LO RMBL AB450HI FRFFENMH TERA TOOLIKDH TOOLIKMT AB1150HI FRFBOGHH ORNL FRFFENHH RIO_MAYO FRFBOGMH TLKTUS NIWOT HUNT2.5 BCCIL WYTHAM TLKSED CLIMEX SGSTEPPE HIFS ABMBLC HUNT5.0 FLAK HARVARD HUNT7.5