Sustainable Development, Energy and Climate Change :Challenges and Opportunities for India Joyashree Roy Bangabandhu Chair Professor Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand September 15, 2018 @ Helsinki
India’s emission status (World bank, 2015) Total emission 2238.38 Million T CO2 Per capita 1.73 metric tonne CO2 emission Share in global 6.2% emission
FACTORS EFFECTING THE TREND OF HISTORICAL GHG EMISSIONS IN INDIA
Structural advantage Agriculture Industry 16% 19% Electricity, Gas and Water 60% Supply 2009 1% Construction 4% Services Share in GDP
Primary energy emission decomposition- All India 1000 Change in 800 total emission Change in emission (million tonne CO 2 ) 600 Activity growth 400 200 Energy intensity 0 Structural -200 change -400 Fuel mix -600 -800
History of Energy Efficiency in India: manufacturing sector
Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Decomposition of energy demand -Indian manufacturing industries Based on Annual Survey of Industries, India 1973-74 – 2010-11 Dasgupta and Roy (2017)
Transformational changes in process technology
Pace of process change – not similar for all industries Cement 100% % share in cement 80% 60% Dry Wet 40% Other 20% 0% 1985-86 1990-91 1996-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 Steel 100% % share in crude steel 80% 60% EAF BOF 40% OHF 20% 0% 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 Source: Dasgupta and Roy 2017
Catching up with BAT
GJ/ton kWh/ ton Energy efficiency performance of Indian industries vis-à-vis world Source: Dasgupta and Roy 2017 120 150 120 30 60 90 30 60 90 0 0 1985 1991 1987 1993 1989 1995 1991 1997 Aluminium 1993 Cement 1999 1995 2001 1997 1999 2003 2001 2005 2003 2007 2005 2009 2007 2011 2009 2011 2013 2013 GJ/ton GJ/ton 20 40 60 20 40 60 0 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 Iron and Steel 1993 Paper 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Initiatives ranged from low to high cost Source: IPCC 2014. Roy,Dasgupta, Chakraborti (2017)
1. Driving force behind undertaking actions Competitiveness Influence of policy pathways Price consideration Consumer demand Exportability 2. Emission reduction steps Recycling (water, metal, dust, blending of inferior raw materials, putting back scrap materials to the furnace, using of rejected pipes and slags in the plants again) Source: Chakraborty & Roy 2012
Fuel policy 6. Changes in Company's Input/ 3 . Energy conservation measures instead of coal Coal gas and blast furnace gas Use of heat treatment furnace Use of iron ore fines instead of iron ore lumps Using blast furnace slag dust 5 . Renewable Energy Technology 4. Energy savings measures Hydro Energy efficient projects like LD Gas recovery Solar Waste heat recovery system Steam injected gas turbine
Potential beyond energy efficiency: Role of carbon price
Behavioural Response Inter-factor substitutability of inputs and own price elasticity of energy input 1973-74 to 2010- 2000-01 to 2010- Factors 1973-74 to 1985-86 1986-87 to 1999-00 11 11 Capital- Labour Complement Substitute Complement Substitute Capital - Material Substitute Substitute Substitute Complement Capital-Energy Substitute Substitute Complement Substitute Substitute Substitute Substitute Substitute Labour- Material Substitute Substitute Substitute Substitute Labour- Energy Material- Energy Substitute Substitute Substitute Substitute Own price elasticity of -0.22 -0.60 -0.74 -1.22 energy ✓ Technological progress evolved to substitute energy input, especially by material inputs ✓ But, this along with a technological bias towards material input seeks attention ✓ Own price elasticity of energy input is negative with an increasing magnitude ✓ Price based intervention is expected to be effective to pull down the energy use further with far reaching implications towards reduction of emission as well. Dasgupta and Roy 2015, Energy Policy , 83, 1-13
Results from GCAM Reference scenario Advanced EE technology scenario Global Carbon price scenario Global carbon price with advanced EE technology scenario Source: Dasgupta, Roy et.al (2017)
Potential beyond energy intensive industries Industries other than energy intensive industries covered under PAT – big role to play Source: Dasgupta, Roy et.al (2017)
Implications for power generation Long run green growth in industry requires large scale electrification Projected consumption of fuel use for electricity generation in Indian in 2050: comparison of Reference scenario and green growth policy scenario Source: Dasgupta, Roy et.al (2017)
Growth of Indian power sector 1122kWh Per-capita consumption (kWh) Total installed capacity (GW) 6% 8% 326.83 GW 1.36 Kwh 16 GW Total Installed Capacity (GW) Per capita Consumption (kWh) Source: Various issues of Annual Report of Central Electricity Authority
Fuel mix in i nstalled capacity, as on March 2017 Nuclear SHP 2% 1% Gas Hydro 8% 14% Wind 10% RES 17% Biomass Coal 2% 59% Solar 4% Source: CEA, 2017
Capacity expansion 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Solar Wind Other Res Installed capacity as on March 2016 Capacity addition during 2016-17 Capacity addition during 2017-2022 Source: CEA, 2016
4. Future emission scenarios: Alternative pathways Potential of Clean Energy Non-fossil Potential Status Target energy (MNRE, 2017) (CEA, 2016 ) (INDC, 2015 ) sources Wind 302 GW 23.76 GW installed 60 GW installed capacity capacity by 2022 Solar 750 GW 4.06GW installed 100 GW by 2022 capacity Biomass 25 GW 4.4 GW current 10 GW by 2022 capacity Large hydro 149 GW 46.1 GW current Hydro installed capacity out Small hydro 21 GW of 4.1 GW small hydro and 41.99 GW large hydro Nuclear 5.78GW current 63 GW by 2032 installed capacity
4. Future emission scenarios: Alternative pathways Future low carbon scenarios: NDC Scenario Installed capacity 2050 Generation 2050
Uptake of systemic policies and contribution of renewable energy in selected Indian states Policies to support Renewable Energy Gujarat Karnataka Rajasthan Maharashtra √ Rebate on Municipal Taxes for promoting renewable energy √ √ √ √ Renewable Energy Re-purchase Obligation √ √ √ √ Facilitating land acquisition for projects leading to generation of renewable energy √ √ Special Tariff for Renewable Energy, Feed-in Tariff, Feed in Premium √ √ Single Window System for Projects for Renewable Energy Generation Share of renewable in total power generation 15.54 10.85 22.25 10.19 (in %)
India: success and failure stories • National Biodiesel Mission of 2003 • New technology with Missing new routines and new regulators – Mobility sector: Intermediate transport – National Mission of Biodiesel • Enhanced Energy Efficiency National Mission 2008 • Pre conceived new technology with new routines and new regulators – Policy, price, global partnership, trained manpower – PAT: new market system, institutional innovation Roy et. al . 2017
Biodiesel in India: wrong pricing • National Biodiesel Mission declared in 2003 – Time bound targets for blending: 5% (2012), 10% (2017), 20% (beyond 2017) – Transforming fully fossil fuel based transport system – generate employment opportunities at grass root and the crop portfolio of agricultural community • Progress so far: – Installed capacity is <2% of the requirement (assuming 5% blending) Roy et. al . 2017
Downstream Link: Missing? • Minimum Procurement Price (a Central Government Decision) – Linked to the price of Diesel? – Does not consider the volatility of price of feedstock and low capacity utilization? – MPP is uneconomic (Biodiesel Association of India, 2010)? • National policy fails to iron out price uncertainties – Disparity between National Policy and Sub-national strategies. Roy et. al . 2017
Energy Conservation Awards (since 1991) ➢ Participation (voluntary) increased from 123 units in 1999 to 773 in 2012 ➢ Investment energy conservation in 2012 = INR. 1948 Crores ➢ Monetary saving achieved in 2013 = INR. 2886 Crores in 2013 ➢ A payback period of 8 months Electrical energy saving in terms of equivalent avoided Capacity in MW Bureau of Energy Efficiency, Government of India, 2014
Thank you Acknowledgement Global Change Programme Research Team Jadavpur University, India http://juglobalchangeprogram.org/
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