Climate Change and Rice Production Tran Dang Hoa Faculty of Agronomy Hue University of Agriculture and Forestry Vietnam
• 4 millions ha • Main regions: - Red river delta - Central - Mekong delta
Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice Production
Climate change in Vietnam Sea level rises 2.5-3 cm/ 10 years in the last century
Vietnam sea level rise (SLR, cm) as compared with 1980-1999 Scenarios Emission 2020 2050 2100 B1 Low 11 28 65 B2 Medium 12 30 75 A2 High 12 33 100
Red river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise of 1m
Mekong river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise of 1m
Temperature increase O C Annual temperature 23.0 Average temperature 22.5 increase 0.1 0 C/10 years. 22.0 4 3 2 Average temperature of some months in 1 21.5 summer is increase Year 0.1- 0.3 0 C/ 10 years. 21.0 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi station.
Vietnam Temperature increased as compared with 1980-1999 Scenarios T(0C) 2020 2050 2100 A2 High 0.5 1.5 2.8 Increase B1 Low 0.3 0.8 1.6 Increase
mm Rainfall of Aug.-Dec. 5000 • Rainfall is decrease 4000 in dry season, but 4 3 increase in raining 3000 2 season. 1 2000 Year • Heavy raining 1000 causes strong flood 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 frequently Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August-December rainfall at A Luoi station.
• Typhoon - Non rule - moves to the south.
Action plan on rice production Mitigation/Adaptation • Climate change mitigation is any action taken to permanently eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change to human life or property • Climate change adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Mitigation GHG from Agriculture 2050 , GHG from agriculture will be increased 30% FAO, April 11, 2014
Climate Change Mitigation within the rice agricultural sector • Agriculture causes about 25 % global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, 65-70 % of CH 4 , and 90 % of N 2 O emissions • Rice paddies contributing about 12% to global CH 4 emissions (second largest after cattle livestock) • Global Warming Potential (GWP): CH 4 – 25 times higher than CO 2 N 2 O – 298 times higher than CO 2
• Rice varieties • Fertilizer • Water management http://www.ibp.ethz.ch (modified)
GHG from Agriculture sectors in Vietnam (MONRE, 2000) CO2 Equ (MT) % Rice Field 37.4 57.5 Live stock 11.1 17.2 ( Fermentation &Manure) Soils 14.2 21.8 Burning field 0.59 0.9 Crops Residues Burning 1.70 2.6 Total 100
GHG experiments on paddy fields Hue province MIRSA project 2014 Quang Nam province LUCCi project 6 seasons 2010 - 2013
Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) Field water depth (Cm) 10 flowering CF 5 2.5 AWD 0 soil surface -5 -10 -15 -20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 DAT transp Late grain Early PI to complete Maturity recovery tillering filling tillering flowering
Safe AWD: - 15 cm
• Applying nutrients as and when needed • Adjusting nutrient application to crop needs in given location and season A standardized leaf color chart (LCC) Site-specific nutrient management
Gas analysis GC: SRI 8610C GC setting, 2011
LUCCi project CF AWD CF AWD Yield ton ha -1 a Yield ton ha-1 a a a a a a 6 6 a 4 4 2 2 0 0 Nam Phuoc Dai Loc Nam Phuoc Dai Loc Winter - Spring 2011 - 2012 Summer – Autumn 2011 No difference in yield of different water management practices
9 16 GMP ton ha-1 GWP ton ha -1 CF AWD CF AWD 8 14 7 12 31 % 6 reduction 41.9% 10 44.3% reduction reduction 5 8 33.6 % 4 reduction 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 Summer - Autumn Winter - Spring Summer - Autumn Winter - Spring 2011 2011 - 2012 2011 2011 - 2012 Dai Loc Nam Phuoc Global Warm Potential
MIRSA project ton ha -1 Potential yield Grain yield 10 a b 8 b A 6 A A 4 2 0 CF ADW AWDS Treatment Yield (ton/ha)
Methane fluxes CH4 mg m -2 d -1 1800 CF AWD AWDS 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Daily average water level (mm) 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 DAS
Nitrous oxide fluxes N2O mg m -2 d -1 CF AWD AWDS 8.40 7.40 N applied N applied 6.40 5.40 MDL 4.40 3.40 2.40 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Daily average water level (mm) 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 DAS
Seasonal cumulative gas emission CH4 kg ha -1 N 2 O kg ha -1 104 days 605 104 days 3.00 2.95 505 2.90 22% reduction 15% reduction 2.85 405 2.80 MDL 305 2.75 2.70 205 2.65 2.60 105 2.55 2.50 5 CF AWD AWDS CF AWD AWDS CH4 N 2 O
Adaptation: IRRI projects Aerobic rice system Treat rice like any other (irrigated) crop: No puddling, no standing water, aerobic soil
Salinity tolerance variety
Cropping ¡System ¡& ¡Management ¡ in ¡coastal ¡zones ¡ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Salinity Salinity Calendar Winter Spring Summer Autumn Autumn Winter control + irrigation Wat Mgt Grav IrriPump Irrigation Rainfed Grav Irrig Wat Source River W Rver+St Wat River water water Salinity Salinity control; Calendar Summer Autumn Autumn Winter no Wat Mgt P irri Leaching Rainfed Grav Irrig P Irr irrigation Wat Source St W River Wat St W water Salinity No Calendar 1 Main season rainfed rice salinity control Calendar 2 Brackish water Shrimp Main season rainfed rice = Land preparation Grav Irrig = gravity irrigation P Irrig = Pump irrigation St Wa = Stored Water
Saline period Low/non-saline Prepar ation Shrimp Rice Wat Stor Leaching DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sensitivity to Heat Stress LOW HIGH MEDIUM Grain Pollination filling Panicle development Leaf, tiller and root development
Temperature( o C) 10 20 30 40 50 0 JAN MAXIMUM FEB MINIMUM Seasonal calendar MAR APR MAY JUN Vegetative Rice Crop JUL AUG SEP Flowering Grain OCT Filling NOV DEC
Conclusion Climate Change Mitigation: Rice systems have to become more efficient in terms of … • Water use • Fertilizer uptake • Harvest index
Adaptation: Rice systems have to become more resilient to … • Drought • Submergence • Salinity • Heat waves By • Germplasm development • Crop management • Cropping system • Resource management and Structures
QUESTION to Restructure Program Sources Measures Need - Too much water - Saving water=> precision - N e w used for rice irrigation system Technology - Too low - Changes the way of rice - New behaviors efficiency of cultivation (less input. less - P r e c i s i o n inputs (fertilizers, w a t e r u s e s . = > h i g h agriculture pesticides, efficiency.) - C-sequence waters) - Re-use rice/ crop residues; mulching/ Bio-char/ Min - Soil degradation tillage - Low C-soil sink - Added values for all - Increase GHG agriculture products & by products
- Low - Replace Rice by other - New comparative crops with reversible techniques? productivity ways - Multiple - Uncertainly - Added values for all cropping income Rice products & by - Investment products - New Marketing Approach
- Sea level - Physical and biological - Modelling rise ways - New behaviors - Weather - Inter-field damps - Good uncertainty prediction - Multiple cropping - Salinity - Mixed cropping - Good - Drought/ investment design - Flooding - Useful - Heat/cool Information/data
Thanks for your attention
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