CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS ON INDIAN COAST WAVES & SEA LEVEL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS ON INDIAN COAST WAVES & SEA LEVEL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography Dona Paula, Goa ADB TA 46460-001 IND: Climate-Resilient Coastal Protection and Management Project 17 Aug 2017, New Delhi CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS ON INDIAN COAST WAVES & SEA LEVEL JAYA KUMAR

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS ON INDIAN COAST – WAVES & SEA LEVEL

CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography Dona Paula, Goa

JAYA KUMAR SEELAM

Principal Scientist, CSIR - National Institute of Oceanography

Dona Paula, Goa 403004, India

Email: jay@nio.org

ADB TA 46460-001 IND: Climate-Resilient Coastal Protection and Management Project 17 Aug 2017, New Delhi

GEF MoWR GR&RM CWC

MANI MURALI .R

Senior Scientist, CSIR - National Institute of Oceanography

Dona Paula, Goa 403004, India

Email: mmurali@nio.org

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To provide wave climate & sea level changes along the coast of India

OBJECTIVE

Time series-HC Trends-HC Trends-Medium Trends-Extreme CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS ON INDIAN COAST – WAVES & SEA LEVEL

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i) To make use of the available historic wave data to estimate return periods and to calculate historic trends

  • f wave heights.

ii) To estimate projections for wave heights due to climate change. iii) To analyse the historic sea levels data, estimate trends during historical (tide gauge data) and recent periods (satellite altimetry).

SCOPE

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  • Compilation/modelling of historical wave data

Hindcast waves 46 Years (1970-2015)

  • Simulation of future wave climate

Future medium CC scenario – 7% increase in winds Future extreme CC scenario – 11% increase in winds

  • Analysis of wave data

Joint distribution (Hs; Tm; Dir) Return period estimates (Hs: 1 in10,50&100) Trends (Annual maxima, mean & 90th percentile)

METHODS – WAVES

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  • Hindcast wave simulations

 46

(1970-2015)

  • CC wave simulations

 92

7% increase in winds  46 11% increase in winds  46

  • Main land Locations

 100

  • Island locations

 100

  • Wave Parameters

 3

  • JD (tables); EVA (3); Trends

 3

WAVES SIMULATIONS & OUTPUT

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Hindcast wave climate

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind data  MIKE-SW Wave climate (1970-2015)

Study Area

Simulation region: The Indian Ocean 60°S to 30°N and 20°E to 115°E

MODEL & DOMAIN

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Bathymetry: ETOPO1&2; MIKE-CMAP; NHO charts Wind data (hindcast) : NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Wave Data : Moored buoys (INCOIS/NIO/NIOT)

DATA USED

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Hindcast wave data: 46 years (1970–2015)

  • NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Winds (2.5°x2.5°)

Model results compared with:

  • Different input winds:

CFSR (0.205°x0.205°) [19 yrs] ECMWF (NIOT wave atlas) [varying spatial resolution]

  • Measured WRB data:

Offshore buoy locations (INCOIS) Nearshore buoy locations (CSIR-NIO)

HISTORICAL WAVE DATA

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WAVE RIDER BUOY LOCATIONS

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MODEL VALIDATION FOR WEST COAST – AD06

WATER DEPTH ~ 1000 m

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MODEL VALIDATION FOR WEST COAST – DS02

WATER DEPTH ~ 800 m

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MODEL VALIDATION FOR WEST COAST – SW02

WATER DEPTH ~ 1000 m

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MODEL VALIDATION FOR WEST COAST – KARWAR

WATER DEPTH = 15 m Amrutha et al, 2016

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MODEL VALIDATION FOR EAST COAST – OB07

WATER DEPTH ~ 200 m

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MODEL VALIDATION FOR EAST COAST – BD11

WATER DEPTH ~ 1000 m

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MODEL VALIDATION FOR EAST COAST – PARADIP

WATER DEPTH ~ 30 m

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MODEL VALIDATION FOR EAST COAST – PONDY

WATER DEPTH ~ 30 m

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Estimation of Return Periods - Comparison

ANALYSIS OF WAVES OFF PONDY

HINDCAST (Sanctuary Beach report)

WEIBULL-3 1 3.6 5 4.3 10 4.6 25 5.1 50 5.4 100 5.7

HINDCAST (NIOT Analysis) WEIBULL-3

1 5 3.68 10 3.88 25 4.15 50 4.35 100 4.56

HINDCAST (NIO Analysis) WEIBULL-3

1 3.6 5 3.99 10 4.16 25 4.37 50 4.54 100 4.7

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WAVE PARAMETERS

Significant wave height, Hs (m) Mean wave period, Tm (s) Mean wave direction,  (°)

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LOCATIONS ALONG MAINLAND COAST

EAST WEST @20m water depth @~50 km spacing  Hs, Tm, 

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LOCATIONS ALONG ISLAND COASTS

Lakshadweep Islands Andaman & Nicobar Islands @200m water depth @~50 km spacing  Hs, Tm, 

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ANALYSIS OF WAVES

OUTPUT

  • A. JOINT DISTRIBUTION OF WAVE PARAMETERS

(Hs vs Tm; Hs vs )

  • B. EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS
  • C. TRENDS OF WAVE HEIGHTS

Parameters Significant wave height, Hs (m) Mean wave period, Tm (s) Mean wave direction,  (°) Locations West coast : 50 East coast : 50 Lakshadweep : 56 Andamans : 44 Simulations Hindcast Medium CC Extreme CC

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Significant wave height, Hs (m) Mean wave period, Tm (s) Mean wave direction,  (°)

ANALYSIS OF WAVES

Hs/Tm 0--2 2--4 4--6 6--8 8--10 10--12 12--14 14--16 16--18 18--20 Total 0.0-0.5 0.04 0.04 6.39 14.74 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.23 0.5-1.0 0.00 0.00 0.36 43.54 6.52 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.44 1.0-1.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.75 5.89 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.77 1.5-2.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 9.85 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.94 2.0-2.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.62 Total 0.04 0.04 6.75 70.10 22.88 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.0 Hs/Dir 22.5 45 67.5 90 112.5 135 157.5 180 202.5 225 247.5 270 292.5 315 337.5 360 Total 0-0.5 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.1 0.18 0.24 0.26 0.55 2.23 2.9 2.39 2.85 1.12 0.15 0.05 13.16 0.5-1.0 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.2 0.27 0.64 7.18 14.77 15.41 10.25 4.51 0.32 0.04 53.94 1.0-1.5 0.01 0.03 0.22 3.71 7.43 0.87 0.23 12.5 1.5-2.0 0.01 0.03 1.07 9.67 0.01 10.79 2.0-2.5 0.01 0.4 6.24 6.65 2.5-3.0 0.16 2.24 2.4 3.0-3.5 0.03 0.41 0.44 3.5-4.0 0.01 0.09 0.1 4.0-4.5 0.01 0.01 0.02 9.5-10.0 Total 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.18 0.34 0.44 0.54 1.23 9.66 23.06 43.89 13.98 5.85 0.47 0.08 100

Joint Distribution

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Extreme Value Analysis

Distribution methods

Weibull-2; Weibull-3; Generalised Pareto

ANALYSIS OF WAVES

Extreme Value Analysis of Significant Wave height, Hs Scenario 1 - 1: 5,10,25,50,100 (Hindcast) Scenario 2 - 1: 5,10,25,50,100 (+Av CC = 7% increase in winds) Scenario 3 - 1: 5,10,25,50,100 (+Max CC = 11% increase in winds)

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HINDCAST/

RETURN PERIOD WEIBULL-2 WEIBULL-3 GP 1 3.89 4.49 4.42 5 4.26 5.03 4.6 10 4.41 5.26 4.66 15 4.49 5.39 4.69 25 4.6 5.55 4.72 50 4.74 5.77 4.76 100 4.88 5.99 4.79

Estimation of Return Periods – P30

ANALYSIS OF WAVES

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Estimation of Return Periods

ANALYSIS OF WAVES

GJ MH

GA

KA KL TN AP OD WB GJ MH

GA

KA KL TN AP OD WB GJ MH

GA

KA KL TN AP OD WB

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Estimation of Return Periods

ANALYSIS OF WAVES

State

Min/Max Hindcast Medium CC Extreme CC

Gujarat Min 2.98 3.28 3.46 Max 7.44 8.67 9.41 Maharashtra Min 4.17 4.62 4.88 Max 7.08 8.18 8.77 Goa Min 5.81 6.52 6.86 Max 6.65 7.64 8.18 Karnataka Min 5.58 6.29 6.68 Max 6.08 6.93 7.39 Kerala Min 4.16 4.71 4.98 Max 4.73 5.31 5.63 Tamil Nadu Min 3.53 3.85 4.07 Max 3.86 4.28 4.63 Andhra Pradesh Min 3.71 4.03 4.28 Max 4.15 4.67 4.96 Odisha Min 4.3 4.85 5.15 Max 5.41 5.86 6.19 West Bengal Min 4.77 5.34 5.66 Max 5.15 5.83 6.2 Lakshadweep Min 3.85 4.2 4.55 Max 9.04 10.46 11.24 Andaman & Nicobar Min 4.16 4.44 4.77 Max 7.53 8.49 9.14

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Trends

ANALYSIS OF WAVES

Hindcast AVG CC EXTREME CC

(as in Shanas et al., 2015) Slope term = trend (m/yr) Y = mX + C Annual maxima Annual mean 90th percentile

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Estimation of Trends

ANALYSIS OF WAVES

GJ MH

GA

KA KL TN AP OD WB

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www.nio.org Hindcast Medium CC Extreme CC

Min Max Min Max Min Max

Annual Mean Hs for mainland west coast

  • 0.087 0.186
  • 0.093 0.196
  • 0.126 0.173

Annual Hs Maxima for mainland west coast -1.015 0.199

  • 1.029 0.219
  • 1.112 0.195

Annual Mean Hs for mainland east coast

  • 0.143 0.166
  • 0.167 0.175
  • 0.203 0.152

Annual Hs Maxima for mainland east coast

  • 0.487 0.458
  • 0.508 0.469
  • 0.524 0.421

Annual Mean Hs for Lakshadweep

  • 0.190 0.610
  • 0.270 0.870
  • 0.370 0.540

Annual Hs Maxima for Lakshadweep

  • 1.000 0.890
  • 1.400 1.700
  • 1.500 0.600

Annual Mean Hs for Andaman 0.120 0.760 0.000 0.420

  • 0.018 0.410

Annual Hs Maxima for Andaman

  • 1.400 0.600
  • 1.600 0.450
  • 1.800 0.370

Estimation of Trends (cm/yr)

ANALYSIS OF WAVES

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SUMMARY

  • Simulated hindcast wave data  46 years (1970-2015)
  • Simulated wave data – medium & extreme CC  46 years
  • Analysis of wave parameters:

Joint distributions of Hs, Tm and MWD Return period for Hs 1:5,10,15,25,50&100 years Trend analysis with annual maxima, mean and 90th percentile

  • Data analysis complete-report complete & submitted
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SUMMARY

  • An increase in wave heights up to 16.53% for medium CC

case and up to 26.48% for extreme CC condition is observed (compared to hindcast waves).

  • The wave height trends along the Indian coast can have a

range between -1.4 cm/yr to 0.89 cm/yr from the hindcast study; -1.6 to 1.7 for medium CC case and -1.8 to 0.6 for extreme CC case.

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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Location Bias RMS error SI Correlat ion Coeffici ent AD02 0.5 0.64 0.33 0.95 AD06 0.49 0.63 0.37 0.94 AD07 0.44 2.16 1.09 0.49 AD09 1.37 1.48 1.03 0.64 BD11 0.16 0.4 0.25 0.87 BD14 0.4 0.52 0.27 0.87 DS02 0.6 0.68 0.54 0.88 DS05 0.06 0.52 0.39 0.49 MB12 0.56 0.62 0.52 0.9 OB07 1.12 1.25 0.74 0.53 SW02 0.34 0.57 0.35 0.95 OB08 0.08 0.41 0.28 0.74 Paradip 0.13 0.31 0.22 0.91