Click to edit Master title style Comprehensive Plan Update Background Materials June 2018
Comprehensive Planning • ND Century Code • “zoning...[is required to be] in accordance with a comprehensive plan...” • Big Picture, Long Range • Consistent decision-making aimed at achieving a vision • Shared expectations • Guiding principles • Coordinated Strategies/Topics
Public Input Role Ward County is in the process of developing a Comprehensive Plan to help prepare the County for the future. The Plan is a tool to maintain and improve quality of life for the County’s residents and to build a more resilient County. Understanding what matters to County residents is key to developing the Plan. The Comprehensive Plan is an official document adopted by the Ward County Board of County Commissioners as a policy guide, vision, and roadmap for the future. It will identify critical topics and develop strategies to address these topics. The planning process is expected to be completed by March 2019, and will be followed by updates to the County’s zoning and subdivision regulations.
Plan Development • Elements of the Comprehensive Plan • Existing and Projected Conditions • Infrastructure and Transportation Needs Analysis • Growth and Development Framework • Comprehensive & Transportation Plan Document Development
Ward County Snapshot • Intergovernmental • Maps on various jurisdictions help identify factors that could or should influence development, or should be consulted about potential issues or opportunities • Demographics and Housing • Demographic and housing changes and characteristics help identify potential issues and opportunities to be addressed in the plan • Economy • Economic indicators help to interpret influences on demographic and housing issues and opportunities
Terrain
Floodplain • Floodplain maps of certain parts of Ward County date back approximately 40 years • A study to update some of the floodplain mapping in Ward County in currently underway • There are over 2600 properties in Ward County that have flood insurance • A,AE, AE Floodway zones are all areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding • Mortgages for properties in areas with 1% annual chance of flooding must carry flood insurance
Rural Water
Septic Systems • A wide variety of soil, terrain, and water table conditions impact rural septic system design • Two rural community septic systems by Minot & one by Rice Lake • Three general onsite septic system designs are common 1. Standard Absorption Trenches 2. Pressurized Seepage Beds 3. Above Grade Mound Systems
Agriculture • test
Prime Farmland • Terrain, soil type, and water availability all influence what is considered prime farmland • Ward County has a key role in the production and processing of agricultural commodities
Rural Fire Districts
Zoning • 92% of the land outside cities is used for agriculture • 16 townships have their own zoning • Zoning in the remaining townships is administered by Ward County • Some cities have established extraterritorial zoning that regulates land use for a limited distance outside their municipal boundaries
Historical Population 2009-2014 70,000 60,000 1957 50,000 1946-1964 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Est. 2017 Ward Outside of Minot Minot Share • Ward County was the largest county by land area in North Dakota until it was split into Renville, Mountrail, Burke, and Ward County in 1910. It’s 1900 population was 7,961 • • Three major factors pertaining to Ward County’s population growth spurts were the baby boomer, the development of the Minot Air Force Base, and the recent Bakken Oil Boom. • 2016 ND Housing Needs Assessment forecasts (2014-2029: • 48.9% growth for ages 25-44 38.2% growth for ages 65+ • • Increase of 3,897 households with income levels under $60,000
Historical City Population 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Burlington 300 270 200 200 262 247 762 995 1,096 1,060 1,191 Minot 575 1,277 6,188 10,476 16,099 16,577 22,032 30,604 32,290 32,843 34,544 36,567 40,888 48,743 Sawyer 327 241 206 271 264 390 373 417 319 377 357 338 Surrey 309 361 999 856 917 934 1,365 Berthold 454 498 511 428 459 431 398 485 409 466 454 495 Des Lacs 188 205 197 180 185 197 212 216 209 204 199 Carpio 257 244 344 322 194 199 215 244 178 148 157 148 Douglas 171 284 288 313 236 210 144 112 93 64 64 61 Ryder 338 483 457 467 330 264 211 158 121 92 85 80 Makoti 283 276 212 219 214 159 199 145 145 154 148 Donnybrook 297 267 259 215 207 196 163 139 106 90 59 54 Kenmare 1,437 1,446 1,494 1,528 1,712 1,696 1,515 1,456 1,214 1,081 1,096 1,059 Minot AFB 12,077 9,880 9,095 7,599 5,521 5,964 % of County 34% 16% 38% 51% 61% 65% 75% 74% 83% 82% 83% 83% 83% 85.2%
Population Projections Ward County Future Population by Year from Three 2016 Studies 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Forecast best matching current trends 60,000 2010 2014 2015 2019 2020 2024 2025 2029 2030 2035 2040 CO Expected Migr CO Low Migr CO High Migr HFA Projection VW High High VW Low Low VW Mid Mid • Three different population forecasts with multiple scenarios were prepared in 2016 • ND Census Office (CO) • ND Housing Finance Agency (MFA) • Vision West ND (VW) • The population forecast and scenario that most closely matches recent estimates suggests Ward County’s population will grow from 61,675 in 2010 to 84,924 in 2040 • Economic factors were a major determinant in the level of future growth
Factors of Change 85 years and over • Population Change = Births – Deaths 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years + Net Migration 70 to 74 years 67 to 69 years • Migration Influences 65 and 66 years 62 to 64 years • Economic Conditions 60 and 61 years 55 to 59 years • Job availability 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years • Cost of living 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years • Social Conditions 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years • Family & friends 22 to 24 years 21 years • Quality of life 20 years 18 and 19 years • High percentage of 22-34 year olds 15 to 17 years 10 to 14 years reflects influence of Air Force Base 5 to 9 years personnel Under 5 years %6 %4 %2 % %2 %4 %6 • High number of young children Female: Male: illustrates recent growth in family formation
Household Trends • Estimated 76% of all Ward households are in 30,000 Minot 25,000 • Change in Persons Per 20,000 Household 15,000 • 2000 Census 2.46 10,000 • 2010 Census 2.36 5,000 • 2012-16 ACS 2.48 0 1990 2000 2010 2016 Total households
Cost of Housing • The threshold at which housing is typically considered affordable is when housing costs are 30% or less of household income. More than 16% of Ward County owner households are paying more than 30% of household income for housing. More than 38% of Ward County renter households are paying more than 30% of household income for housing. • This threshold is often measured in terms of Median Family Income (MFI) for a location • A recent forecast indicates between 2014 and 2029, the three lowest household income categories will see significant increases: • 0-30% MFI – increase 25% • 31-50% MFI – increase 23.8% • 51-80% MFI – increase 30.1%
Cost of Housing • Charts show percent of Housing Units that are Affordable to Families with Specific Income Levels in Ward County & ND, 2014 • In 2014, 67% of Ward County owner occupied housing units were valued at $125,000 or more • In 2014, 39% of Ward County owner occupied housing units were valued at $200,000 or more
Economy
Economy Year Labor Force Employed Unemployed (%) Unemployed 2010 31526 30436 1090 3.5 2011 32491 31454 1037 3.2 2012 33955 33055 900 2.7 2013 34493 33558 935 2.7 2014 34553 33647 906 2.6 2015 34299 33205 1094 3.2 2016 33679 32301 1378 4.1 2017 32971 31909 1062 3.2
Economy • Three significant contributors to Ward County’s economy are the Minot Air Force Base, the Oil and Gas Industry, and Agriculture • According to a 2017 report the MAFB has 6,611 direct employees, and an additional 5,584 dependents • At its peak in 2014, the oil and gas industry represented 15% of the total employment in Ward County
Economy Agricultural Quickfacts (source USDA, NASS) • Market Value of Ag Products Sold Including Direct Sales: • 2012 – $274,458,000 (93% from grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas) • 2007 - $167,957,000 (91% from grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas) • Land in Farms in 2012: 1,073,283 acres • Average Farm Size in 2012: 1,117 acres • Number of Farms in 2012: 961 • Farms by Value of Sales in 2012: • Less than $2,500 248 • $2,500 - $9,999 110 • $10,000 - $24,999 62 • $25,000 – $99,999 164 $100,000 or more 377 •
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