Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master text styles Winter ’07 a Consumer View • Second level • Third level • Fourth level Eddie Proffitt • Fifth level Gas Group Chairman Major Energy Users’ Council (meuc) 1
Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level 2
Click to edit Master title style The Buyer’s Dilemma • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • To fix or not to fix …….? • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level 3
NBP v Zeebrugge Day Ahead Click to edit Master title style September 07 45.000 • Click to edit Master text styles 40.000 • Second level 35.000 30.000 • Third level 25.000 UK day ahead Z'brugge day ahead • Fourth level Sept M-1 20.000 • Fifth level 15.000 10.000 5.000 0.000 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4
Click to edit Master title style IUK Flows – Sept 07 • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level 5
Forward Prices – Thursday 27/09 Click to edit Master title style • winter 06/7 • Click to edit Master text styles 26.00 • W.D. • Second level 42.50 demand 245 mcm • Nov • Third level 42.40 • Dec • Fourth level 45.50 • Jan • Fifth level 48.75 • Feb 47.75 • Mar 44.10 6
Click to edit Master title style Member Quote • Last winter spot gas prices averaged less than 26p/therm, the • Click to edit Master text styles NG winter outlook report shows an improved supply situation for the coming winter compared to last although we cannot rely • Second level on demand across the whole of Europe being as low as last year because of the very mild winter. This leads us to expect that • Third level spot prices will outurn above last winter but below the current winter future contract price. The winter futures price briefly • Fourth level dipped below 40p in February but other than this has remained above this level. Whilst we have bought some of our gas • Fifth level forward, once again we will be going into the winter with a significant exposure to spot prices, we have another nervous few months ahead of us. • Of as much concern is the price for summer 08, with oil over $80 and as I write this sum-08 gas at 38p/therm and sum-08 electricity at £41.10/MWh. Summer electricity is now priced above winter-07! 7
Click to edit Master title style Member quotes • “I personally remain suspicious about the involvement • Click to edit Master text styles of Banks in talking up the price for short-term profit, • Second level regardless of supply position.” • “Most end user customer regard the money making • Third level activities of financial institutes as despicable and • Fourth level instead of adding liquidity they are really adding volatility to the market for financial benefit.” • Fifth level • “Our major concern is the necessity to demand-side manage, due to plant changes since 2005/6 we are now less likely to be able to react.” 8
NGG– Daily Summary Report Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master text styles • An invaluable tool • Second level • Third level • Review group 140 to examine the information provided on the current NG • Fourth level Gas web site • Fifth level • Intention to make the site more reactive and user friendly 9
Energy Flow Data Friday 28/09 Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level 10
Click to edit Master title style New Data Available • Click to edit Master text styles • Mod 97a – Physical Interconnector Flows • Second level • Mod 104 • Third level – Physical LNG Stocks at Importation Facilities • Fourth level • Mod 121 • Fifth level – Physical Exit Flows at NTS Exit Points 11
Click to edit Master title style Electricity • Click to edit Master text styles • Supply position more certain than gas • Second level • New daily summary report to be produced • Third level • Ageing plant • Fourth level • Carbon influence • Fifth level • Increased wind generation • Embedded generation 12
Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level 13
Click to edit Master title style Energising Europe • Click to edit Master text styles • Ofgem and MEUC activity • Second level • Third level • Unbundling – transmission from supply • Fourth level • TSO co-operation • Fifth level • Regulatory agency • Consumer protection • Transparency 14
Click to edit Master title style Energising Europe • Click to edit Master text styles “Greater transparency: Steps to improve market • Second level transparency on network operation and supply • Third level will guarantee equal access to information, make • Fourth level pricing more transparent, increase trust in the market and help avoid market manipulation.” • Fifth level 15
Click to edit Master title style European Activity • Click to edit Master text styles • European TSO Investment Questionnaire – https://www.formdesk.com/dte/survey • Second level • 3rd Energy Industry Delegation to Brussels • Third level – 8 & 9 October 2007 • Fourth level – sandra.barradas@meuc.co.uk • Fifth level – Tel 0208578466 16
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