City Council Study Session December 6, 2016 Tonights Agenda and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

City Council Study Session December 6, 2016

Tonight’s Agenda and Discussion Items I. Growth Considerations II. Buildout Analysis Process and Initial Results III. Discussion and Questions

I. GROWTH CONSIDERATIONS – POPULATION: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTIONS

General Plan Planning Horizon 2040 2040 The planning horizon for Envision Burlingame (both the General Plan and Zoning Ordinance) is 2040. This is a typical timeline for a General Plan, and coincides with other local and regional planning efforts. The General Plan and Zoning Ordinance may be amended during that time, but this effort is intended to describe and plan for what changes the community intends for the duration. The environmental review will evaluate environmental impacts for this same timeframe.

Plan Bay Area 2040 – Implications for Burlingame ABAG projects an approximate 10% po popul pulation i n incr ncrea ease se ea each ch deca decade de in Burlingame based on regional employment and demographic trends, achieving a population of 38,400 in 2040. Burlingame Housing Element

Burlingame Growth – Historic Patterns Burlin rlinga game me Popu pula latio tion Grow owth b h bet etween een 1990-2014 Ye Year Population Pop on % I Inc ncrea ease e 1990 26,801 -- 2000 28,158 5% 2010 28,806 2.3% 2014 29,618 2.8% Burlingame Housing Element

Burlingame Growth – Historic Patterns Burlin rlinga game me Emplo mployme ment Grow owth b h bet etween een 1998-2012 Year Ye Jobs Jo Per ercent ent C Cha hang nge 1998 34,216 -- 2003 30,274 -11.5% 2008 33,985 12.3% 2012 33,995 0.03% US Census CBP/ZBP , 2012; Strategic Economics, 2015

Burlingame Growth – Regional Housing Needs Allocation Bur urling ngame e RHNA: 2015 2015-202 2023 Inc ncome C e Categ egory Def efinit initio ion Inc ncome e for Fa Family ily of 4 4 Num Number er o of Unit Units Household income up 138 Extremely Low $33,950 to 30% of AMI Household income Very Low $56,550 138 31-50% of AMI Household income Low $90,500 144 51-80% of AMI Area Median Income Median Income $103,000 (AMI) Household income Moderate $123,600 155 81-120% of AMI Above Moderate Household income Market Rate 288 above 120% of AMI TOTAL CU CURRE RRENT N NEED EED 863 863 AVERA VERAGE Y YEA EARL RLY NEED EED 108 108 Burlingame Housing Element 2015-2023. ABAG, Final 2014-2022 Regional housing Need Allocation by County, via 21 Elements; Income for family of 4 from HCD State Income Limits 2013, via 21 Elements

Burlingame Growth - Current Residential Pipeline Projects Net New Status Total Units Residents* Approved Projects 444 932- 1024 Proposed Projects 103 216 - 237 Preliminary Projects (presented but no application) 600 - 672 1,260 – 1,546 TOTAL 1,147 – 1,219 2,641 – 2,807 * Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Burlingame Growth - Current Non-Residential Pipeline Projects Status Total Square Feet Approved Projects 857,514 Proposed Projects 246,737 Preliminary Projects (presented but no application) 430,000 TOTAL 1,534,251

Burlingame Growth – Benchmarks 10% G Grow owth h as suggested at previous study session 29,618 x 10% = 2,962 r res esident dents 2,962 residents = 1, 1,288 t 288 to 1, 1,410 u 410 units * Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons Dow ownt ntow own Spec n Specific Plan n evaluated up up to o 1,232 uni units 1,232 units = 2, 2,587 587 to 2, 2,834 834 res esident dents * Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Burlingame Growth – Benchmarks Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) specifies 863 u 863 units between 2015 and 2023 2023 863 units = 1, 1,812 t 812 to 1, 1,985 r 985 residents * Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons RHNA ex extra rapol polated ed to o 2040 (at 108 units per year) equates to 2, 2,697 u 697 units between 2015 and 2040 2,697 units = 5, 5,663 663 to 6, 6,203 203 res esident dents * Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Burlingame Growth – Benchmarks Dev evel elopment opment P Pipel peline ne 444 units approved = 932 932 to 1, 1,021 021 residents 103 units proposed = 216 t 216 to 237 r 237 residents 600 to 672 units in preliminary planning = 1, 1,260 t 260 to 1,547 r res esident dents TOTAL = 2, = 2,408 408 – 2,805 res esident dents f from om pi pipel peline ne pr proj ojec ects * Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Burlingame Growth – Benchmarks RHN HNA Devel evelopment ent 1,812 – 1,985 1,812 1,985 Pip ipelin line res esident ents 2,408 2,408 – 2,805 2,805 to to 2023 2023 res esident ents 10% G 10% Growth th 2,962 r 2,962 resid sidents ts RHN HNA Dow Downtow own 5,663 – 6,203 5,663 6,203 Spec Sp ecifi fic P Plan res esident ents 2,587 – 2,834 2,587 2,834 to to 2040 2040 res esident ents

I. GROWTH CONSIDERATIONS – RESOURCE AND INFRASTRUCTURE CAPACITY

Burlingame Growth – Water Supply • 2015 Urban Water Management Plan bases service estimates on ABAG projections: – Future pop opulat ation on in service area of 39,530 39,530 by 2040 – Job ob g growt owth to 40,164 40,164 by 2040 • The City pur purcha chases ses 1,909 1,909 millio illion g gallo llons of potable water from SFPUC annually, stored in seven reservoirs (capacity of 2.9 million gallons). • A consistent per per ca capi pita decr decrea ease se in water consumption over the past 10 years will help offset growth impacts.

Burlingame Growth – Water Supply Source: Burlingame 2015 Urban Water Management Plan

Burlingame Growth – Water Supply Infrastructure Source: Burlingame 2015 Urban Water Management Plan

Burlingame Growth – Water Supply • Assuming “n “normal” n l” non-dry ye ry years rs, Burlingame will have adequate water supply to accommodate projected growth until approximately 2040. – A potential defi defici cit o of f 2% could be experienced in 2040 – Water cutback measures would need to be implemented to offset this deficit. • If dry ye ry years rs are experienced, sho shortfa falls o s of f 7%-17% 17% could be experienced. • A recycled water facility could help offset some of these shortfalls. The 2015 Urban Water Management Plan includes conservation measures and implementation.

Burlingame Growth – Sewer System Infrastructure • Burlingame Wastewater Treatment Facility (WWTF) provides sew sewer er ser service fo ce for appr pproxi ximatel ely 2 29,890 peo peopl ple. – During wet weather, sewer flows can reach up to 25 mgd, exceeding the maxi ximum um ca capa paci city o of 1 f 15 mg mgd – Excess flow is discharged into the Bay. • 2015 Sewer System Master Plan (revised) addresses capacity-related overflows. – As of 2015, 100% of t f the hi he high gh pr priority sew sewer er pr project ects s ha have e been co been compl plet eted ed, and basin-wide collection improvements are expected to be complete by 2025. – In 2011, the City constructed a 1.6 m 1.6 mg stor ormwat water ret etent ention ba n basi sin. n. • The plan only addresses current capacity issues, and do does es no not a acco ccount unt fo for gr growth h pr project ections ns.

Burlingame Growth – Sewer System Infrastructure

Burlingame Growth – Roadway Capacity • Most of Burlingame’s intersections operate with accept cceptabl ble l e lev evel els o s of f ser service ce. • The Broad oadway way/Cal Califor ornia D a Drive/Car Carol olan an A Avenue int nter ersect sections ns experience delays during the morning and afternoon weekday peak hours. • The Broadw dway Int nter ercha change P nge Project ect and future plans for gr grade sepa de separation n at Broadway will improve existing traffic constraints.

Burlingame Growth – Existing Traffic Intersection Peak Hour Existing LOS El Camino Real and Millbrae Avenue (CMP) morning E evening D El Camino Real and Broadway (CMP) morning B evening B El Camino Real and Peninsula Avenue – Park Road (CMP) morning C evening C Carolan Avenue and Broadway morning C evening D California Drive and Broadway morning E evening D California Drive and Oak Grove Avenue morning C evening C Source: C/CAG, 2013 CMP Monitoring Report, Appendix F: LOS and Performance Measure Monitoring Report. Source: Hexagon Transportation Consultants, Inc., Draft Traffic Impact Analysis for Residential Development at Carolan Avenue and Rollins Road, 8/21/2014. Counts Conducted on 11/19/2013

Burlingame Growth – School Enrollment Source: Burlingame School District 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 500 0 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 Enrollment 1993 - present 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Burlingame Growth – School Capacity 2015-2016 School Enrollment Capacity Franklin Elementary 612 615 Hoover Elementary 250 250 Lincoln Elementary 490 500 McKinley Elementary 520 625 Roosevelt Elementary 353 345 Washington Elementary 370 370 Burlingame Intermediate School 1,100 1,255 Source: Burlingame School District Facilities Master Plan, June 2016

III. BUILDOUT ANALYSIS PROCESS AND INITIAL RESULTS