Changing Mobility and Implications for ICE’s – Change is Ha Happ ppening ng Fast SA SAE - IC ICE 2019 Septembe ber 17, , 2019 Mic ichael hael Berube e Ac Acting ing Deputy uty Assist istant nt Secret retar ary y for for Transpor sporta tation tion U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 1 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
US S DOE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 17 National World-class capabilities : Laboratories $700m/year • High Performance Transportation Computing • Artificial Intelligence R&D • Tools and Modeling Vehicle cle Technologies ologies H2 & Fuel Cell ll Bioen energy ergy Technologie nologies • Electrification Technologie nologies • Combustion engines • Hydrogen production (photo- • Biofuels and bioproducts • Low cost lightweight materials electrochemical, electrolysis) • New products, fuels, and • New mobility & transportation • Fuel Cell systems chemicals from waste systems • H2@Scale • Energy crops U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: WTOP U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: National Archives Source: NASA Source: Boeing 2019 1903 1969 Modern Commercial Wright Brothers Apollo 11 Aviation First Flight Moon Landing U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
2019 1903 1969 Source: Ford Motor Company Source: myAutoWorld.com Source: Motor1.com AV Development Model A Mustang Vehicle U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
SHARED MICROMOBILITY TRIPS (NACTO) Total Trips Taken (Millions) Source: melissamn/Shutterstock Source: Pinterest Source: Alain Jocard/Getty Images Source: Spin U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: InBin Source: Shutterstock Source: iStock Source: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
TNC & Taxi Ridership in the U.S., 1990-2017 Bruce Shaller, Shaller Consulting Source: GETTY IMAGES (MLENNY) Source: AirportImprovement.com Source: David Goldman/AP U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
NEW TECHN CHNOL OLOG OGIE IES & & BU BUSIN INES ESS MODELS ELS ARE DRI DRIVIN VING G DIS DISRUPTION UPTION Share red d Connect nected ed & Emerg rging ng Fuels s Mobil ility ty New ew Modes es e-Comme merce ce Mobil ility ty Au Automat omated ed Vehic icles es & Powertra rains ns On Demand and of Transpo nsport U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
TWO KE O KEY DR DRIVE VERS RS FOR OR DISTRUPTION …. ECONOM NOMIC IC OPPOR ORTUNIT UNITY UNDER UN R UT UTILIZE ZED ASSETS TS nd most Transpo porta tati tion on is is t the e 2 nd t Today’s Cars Are Parked 95% expe pensiv ive e spe pendi ding c g categor egory y of the e Tim ime e 1 after af er hous usin ing g 3 NEW & GROWING MARKETS Impl plication ication -> Moving ing from om Ride Sharing Market Growth 2 Ass sset based sed to Ser ervice ice ba based sed tr transpor nsportation tation - - - BI BIG G impa pacts cts on tec echnolog nology y & usa & usage ge 1 RAC Foundation (https://www.racfoundation.org/research/mobility/spaced-out-perspectives-on-parking) 2 Goldman Sachs (https://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Rethinking%20Mobility_GoldmanSachsMay2017.pdf) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
THIRD DRIVER OF CHANGE… CHANGES HANGES IN IN EL ELEC ECTR TRIC IC GRID RID IM IMPACT CT TR TRANSPORT ANSPORTATION TION - Hig igh level el of ren enewables es - Low mar argi gina nal l cost st of el elec ectr trons ons - Fl Flexib ible le Loads ds EIA Energy Outlook to 2050, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/aeo2019.pdf U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 11 11
Cost Trends for Lithium-based EV Batteries $600 00 Graphite/High Voltage NMC Gra raph phite/ ite/High gh Volt ltage ge NMC $500 00 R&D Focus: Higher cathode capacity (220+ mAh/g), low/no Sili licon con/High gh Volt ltage ge NMC Cobalt, recycling, fast charge $400 00 /kWh) t ($/kWh $320/kWh kWh (5x exces ess Li, 10%S %S) Lith thium ium-Met etal l or m Cost $300 00 Lith thium ium/Su /Sulf lfur Silicon/High Voltage NMC System R&D Focus: Higher anode $200 00 capacity (1000+ mAh/g), $197/kWh kWh cycle/calendar life, fast charge $100 00 Lithium-Metal & Li/Sulfur ~$80/kWh kWh $0 $0 R&D Focus: Solve cycle life/ 2012 12 2014 14 2016 16 2018 18 2020 20 2022 22 2024 24 2026 26 2028 28 2030 30 catastrophic failure issues, reduce excess lithium, reduce Yea ear excess electrolyte, reduce ReCell Cell - $5M/yr yr Batt tter ery y Recycling cling Resear earch ch lithium metal cost + $ $5M Batt tter ery y Prize ize U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Electric tric Dri rive System m - Volume me Redu duction tion Required red Current ent Status us 202 025+ 5+ • 33 3 kW/ / li liter r densi nsity ty • 8x x incr crease ease • 50% 0% co cost st red educti uction on 20+ Liter er Volu lume me 3 Liter er Volu lume me U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 13
S G R O W I N G INT NTERE REST ST IN EL N ELECT CTRIFIED RIFIED TRUC UCKS KS IS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
EL ELEC ECTRIFI TRIFICATION TION & R & REN ENEW EWAB ABLES LES ALS LSO O DR DRIVIN VING G HY HYDR DROG OGEN Nik ikola la has 13 13,000 ,000 Hydr drogen ogen Fuel el Cel ell trucks cks on Orde der Toyota/P ta/PACC CCAR AR Fue uel Cell Truc uck Photo Credit: Nikola Photo Credit: Toyota 15 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
CHA HANGI NGING NG BUSINESS MODELS 1980’s ->AIRLINE: IRLINE: Hub & S & Spoke Challen llenges ges / Opportun unities ities in Freigh ght: • Driver er Shortages ages: : 50,000 in 2018 • ATA A TRAC study: y: decreasing asing trip length ths • Tra raffic fic Cong ngestio estion: n: 1.2 billion lion ho hours • Fuel Effi ficienc iency y & O & Operationa ional l Costs sts 50% of goods moved less than 100 miles between origin and Source: Delta Airlines destination ‹#› U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
UTILI ILITIE TIES S Ha Have e Announc ounced ed - $3.7B .7B in in EV EV In Infr fras astructu tructure re EL ELEC ECTRIFY TRIFY AMER ERIC ICA (over ) $2.0 .0B in in EV EV Charging arging er 10yr yrs) (currently 27,000 stations in US/Canada) • 40% % in increa ease e from om 2018 8 – 2019 9 in in the e nu number er of char argin ging g po ports • GM/Bec echt htel el announce ceme ment t – coll llaborat boration ion to buil ild d large ge scale e fast charg rgin ing g net etwork Updated: 4/15/2019 Details: North American Utility Electric Transportation Charging Infrastructure Program Overview – 2018 status U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 17
LOW COS OST RENEW EWABLES BLES IN INCREASE REASED D EV EV MA MARKET KET & B BATTE TTERIES: RIES: PENETRA TRATION TION Cost Trends for Lithium-based EV PV LCOE Benchmark Global EV Forecast Batteries Summary $600 600 Graphi hite/ e/Hi High h Voltage e NMC Silicon/ on/High h $500 500 Voltage e NMC 4V, NMC /kWh) st ($/kW 4.2V, Lithium um-Met etal or 10% Si $400 400 Lithium um/Sul ulfur Millions stem Cost 5x excess ss Li, 10% S $320/kW kWh $300 300 1.5x excess ss Li, 75% S, ~ ~$80/kWh kWh System $256 256/kWh $200 200 $219/kW kWh 4.7 Volt $100 100 4.7 7 Volt, 30% Si $0 $0 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: NREL 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030 RE RENEW EWABLE ABLE PEV EV BA BATT TTER ERY Costs sts Costs sts Penetrat tration ion U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 18
PIO IONEERING NEERING + 200% 200% + RES RESEA EARCH CH Empty miles Easier Travel Increased use by EXPLORE ORES S POTENTIAL ENTIAL underserved populations ENERGY Y IMPACTS E N E R G Y U S E Share red d Connect nected ed & Emerg rging ng Fuels s Mobil ility ty New ew Modes es e-Comme merce ce Connect nected ed & Mobil ility ty Automat Au omated ed Vehic icles es & Powertra rains ns On Demand and of Transpo nsport Au Automat omated ed Vehic icles es E N E R G Y U S E Vehicles right-sized Less hunting for parking Collision avoidance - 60% 60% Platooning U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
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