Centre Brief 13 November 2017 Dr Mike Ryan Dr Sondoss Elsawah - PDF document

13/11/2017 Capability Systems Centre Centre Brief 13 November 2017 Dr Mike Ryan Dr Sondoss Elsawah Capability Systems Centre • An independent think tank that offers cutting edge research and analysis to the ADO. • Provides world-class academic expertise across a range of disciplinary areas relevant to the delivery of defence capability, through: – Research – Publications – Education – Events 1

13/11/2017 About the Centre • Only Industry Research Centre in UNSW • Focused on research related to capability systems: – Systems science – Systems thinking and modelling – Systems engineering – Requirements engineering – Project management • Above-above-the-line assurance that does not encroach on DSTG and RPDE, nor compete with industry consultancy available from various panels Our Principal Activities • Independent Assurance • Research and Independent Advice • Education, Training and Events 2

13/11/2017 Independent Assurance • Project and program reviews: – Schedule Compliance Risk Assessment Methodology (SCRAM) • Technical and Engineering Risk Assessments • Business and Innovation Assessments Research and Independent Advice • Mentoring • Technical Deep Dives and Investigations • Technical Risk Reduction 3

13/11/2017 Research • Research team include academics, industry fellows, research associates, and professional staff. • Context removed to focus the research team – Modelling for Force Design – Capability Analytics – Robustness and Future Proofing – Modularity – Composability – Project Management – Supply Chain Management Workshops • Facilitated by Centre staff • Structured top-down approach – Force design – Business Case Development – Needs Statement development – Design for System Lifecycle (life-cycle cost analysis) – Scope development – OCD development – FPS development 4

13/11/2017 Education, Training and Events • Tailored education and training packages – Postgraduate programs and courses – Professional education short courses • Annual events program plus ad hoc public seminars Systems Modelling Crafting and Implementing Project Conference Execution Strategies 28 September 2017 UNSW Canberra 10 August 2017 UNSW Canberra Force Design PARARI: Australian Conference Explosive Ordnance Safety Symposium 26-27 September 2017 UNSW Canberra 21-23 November 2017 UNSW Canberra Centre Staff • Director: Dr Michael Ryan • Deputy Director: Dr Alan McLucas • Centre Manager: Mr Wayne Hargreaves • Modelling Lead: Dr Sondoss Elsawah • Industry Fellows: 6 • Research Associates: 5 • Software Developer: 1 5

13/11/2017 Centre Focus—Systems Thinking and Modelling Resource-Activity Modelling 6

13/11/2017 Applications of Resource-Activity Modelling • Organisational Problems (workforce planning) • Capability Planning (asset and resource requirements) • Supportability Analysis (ILS and FIC, LCCA) • Technical Trade-off Analyses Layers of Modelling Methodology System Dynamics Maintenance View Fleet View Crew View Supply View Resource Pool Basis of Provisioning Resources Eg Opus Discrete Event Simulation 7

13/11/2017 Capability Planning: Modelling Elements Capability Mission System Support System (appropriate elements of FIC): • • Facilities & Personnel • Collective Training Areas Resources Activities Resources Activities • Support Training • • Supplies Command and • Management Industry • Industry Business Rules Basic Resource Modelling approach Capability Strategies Resources Performance Model Measures Activities Business Rules 8

13/11/2017 Basic Resource Modelling approach Capability Option 1 Evaluate and Compare to Option 2 Strategies identify suitable strategy Option 3 … R1 Resources R2 Performance …. Model Measures A1 Activities A2 …. Defined Relationships between Activities, Resources and Performance Business Rules Measures (PM) that deliver the capability (eg dependencies, timings) Capability: Model Hierarchy Capability Activities A1 A2 A3 Performance Measures Resources R4 R1 R2 R3 Business Rules 9

13/11/2017 Capability: Basic Maritime Model Capability Realisation: Activities Operations Sustainment Acquisition & Transition Performance Measures Mission Industry Resources Docks Crew Workforce System Activities and Resources are Based on elicited relationships for maritime location dependent : enables Business Rules capability operations, development and prioritisation of all resources management based on location Model Hierarchy: Adding depth Capability Realisation: Activities Operations Sustainment Acquisition & transition Modify Dispose Maintain Upgrade IM FCD ID MCD Mission Industry Resources Docks Crew System Workforce Adaptive dynamic adjustment of Shore‐based Crew Under Trained decision rules eg adjusting the Training Crew Support operating profile of subs dependent on operational Business Rules Performance context and resource availability Measures 10

13/11/2017 Model Hierarchy: Adding depth Capability Realisation: Activities Operations Sustainment Acquisition & transition Modify Dispose Maintain Upgrade FCD ILM MCD Mission Industry Resources Docks Crew System Workforce Trained Shore‐based Crew Under Training Crew Support Business Rules Performance Measures Model Hierarchy: Adding breadth Capability Realisation: Activities Sustainment Operations Acquisition & transition Modify Dispose Maintain Upgrade Mission Industry Resources Docks Crew Integration Labs System Workforce Business Rules Performance Measures 11

13/11/2017 Model Hierarchy: Adding breadth—SoS Model Hierarchy: Adding breadth—SoS System of Systems (SoS) 12

13/11/2017 Model Hierarchy: Adding breadth—SoS System of Systems (SoS) SoS Business Rules Modelling Toolbox • A set of tools (including mapping, simulation, optimization) developed to design, test and compare a capability’s performance (such as availability) under different: – requirements (e.g. required availability) – resource supply and demand scenarios – resource management decisions (e.g. procurement decisions) – constraints (e.g. maintenance cycles) 13

13/11/2017 Modelling Toolbox Modelling Toolbox Modelling for Force Design 14

13/11/2017 Modelling for Force Design Modelling for Force Design 15

13/11/2017 DUMMY DATA - EXAMPLE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED DUMMY DATA - EXAMPLE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED 16

13/11/2017 DUMMY DATA - EXAMPLE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED DUMMY DATA - EXAMPLE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED 17

13/11/2017 Life-cycle analysis Lifetime extension decision Life-cycle analysis 18

13/11/2017 Trade-off analysis Trade-off analysis Invest in new maintenance line vs buying a new aircraft No performance difference between 13 and 14 aircrafts 19

13/11/2017 Exploratory Analysis How vulnerable are our strategies in securing average flying hours > 5000 hours and total costs < $1300 billion ? Strategies Uncertainties • Strategy I: High Acquisition Uncertain parameter Range Low Maintenance The risk that that an aircraft is lost during operation 0.00026 – 0.00234 (-) Lifetime of aircraft 37440 – 336690 (hour) Total required flying hours with a uniform distribution 12 – 109 (hour/week) • Strategy II: Medium Acquisition Expected time spent by an aircraft in CAP 20 – 28 (week) Medium Maintenance Time between CAP events 16 – 24 (week) Expected time spent by an aircraft in DM 8 – 10 (week) • Strategy III: Low Acquisition Time (flying hours) between DM events 200 – 1800 (hour) Expected time spent by an aircraft in OM 3 – 5 (week) High Maintenance Time between OM events 50 – 450 (hour) Cost of OM 0.1 – 2.0 ($ billion) Exploratory Analysis Cost objective < $1300 B Flying hours objective 5000 hours 20