Catastrophic Disaster Planning Higher Education Workshop Emergency Management Institute Michel S. Pawlowski Chief – Incident Response Section, FEMA HQ Disaster Operations Directorate June 6, 2007
Catastrophic Planning Overview • A Catastrophic Incident: – A sudden event which results in tens of thousands of casualties and tens of thousands of evacuees – Response capabilities and resources of the local jurisdiction will be overwhelmed – Characteristics of the precipitating event will severely aggravate the response strategy and further tax the capabilities and resources available to the area – Life saving support from outside the area will be required, and time is of the essence – Likely to have long-term impacts within the incident area as well as, to a lesser extent, on the Nation. • Catastrophic Plans are a specialized type of emergency plan – Directed at specific scenarios – Integrated Concept of Operations for Local, Regional, State, Area Regional, Federal Regional, and the NRP – Horizontally integrated: Across agencies and organizations at the same level of government – Vertically integrated: Across Federal, State and local entities 2
Catastrophic Planning Budget • 2006 – Evacuation Planning (Gulf Coast Recovery Office) – Mass Evacuee Support Planning – ESF-6 Regional Mass Care Planning – Florida Catastrophic Planning – New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Planning – Total $20.0M • 2007 – New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Planning – California Catastrophic Planning – Florida Catastrophic Planning – Catastrophic Housing – National Shelter System – Debris Operations – Debris Technology – Public Assistance Program Management – Operational Planning Capability – Total $20.0M 3
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Planning: Catastrophic Disaster Funding? FY 2005 – Disaster Support Initiative ($20M) FY 2006 – $ 20 M Base Line Funding (Fenced) FY 2007 - $ 20 M FY 2008 - $ 21.5 M FY 2009 through 2013 – $ 23 M to $ 23+ M based upon inflation Current Catastrophic Disaster Response & Recovery Planning Initiative focused on Florida & NMSZ FY 2007 – contract support to Region IX and CA This is a joint Response (Disaster Operations Directorate) & Recovery (Disaster Assistance Directorate) funded initiative which includes Mitigation and Preparedness participation – What is the message? 4
Catastrophic Disaster Planning Florida Catastrophic Planning (FLCP) Regional Response and Recovery Planning - Notice Event -
Florida Catastrophic Disaster Planning Background Catastrophic failure of the HHD around Lake Okeechobee would result in: “...A catastrophic failure of the dike [that] will impact the lives and livelihoods of thousands of Floridians. It would be devastating to our economy, environment and quality of life. While preparing for the impacts of a dike failure is critical to prevent the loss of life, the priority should be preventing such a failure from ever occurring….” –Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
UNCLASSIFIED Catastrophic Disaster Planning-South Florida US Army Corps Lake Okeechobee/Herbert Hoover Dike Miami, Florida of Engineers Regional evacuation and response planning for Response and recovery the Herbert Hoover Dike in the event of a rupture planning for a Category 5 in the southern end of Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane impacting South Includes Glades, Hendry, Palm Beach, Martin Florida, making landfall in and Lee Counties, Florida. Miami, Florida. 7
Florida Catastrophic Disaster Planning Background • Impact of 2004 Florida Hurricanes – Charley (cat. 4): $14 billion in damages, 15 deaths in Florida – Frances (cat. 2): $9 billion, 5 deaths in Florida – Ivan (cat. 3): $13 billion, 92 deaths in US; 25 in FL – Jeanne (cat. 3): $7 billion, 3,025+ deaths (Haiti, Dominican Republic, PuertoRico); 3 in Florida • A category 5 hurricane could completely devastate the Miami Southern Florida area – History of three storms with category 5 status at landfall • Hurricane Andrew (1992) devastated southern Miami-Dade County, causing $26 billion in damages in Florida – The 1926 Hurricane (category 4) devastated the Miami area • Scientists estimate a similar hurricane would cause almost $140 billion in damages today
Direct Technical Assistance to Meet Planning Goals Florida Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Florida Catastrophic Disaster Planning Starting Local
Regional Florida Catastrophic Planning: Focus on South Florida and the Herbert Hoover Dike Region Ray Peña Project Manager FLCP Project IEM, Inc. June 6, 2007
Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning Phase 1: To develop a regional response and recovery annex for the counties and communities surrounding Lake Okeechobee in the event of a Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) failure Phase 2: To develop a regional response and recovery annex for a catastrophic hurricane impacting South Florida Direct technical assistance to target counties Planning Team assists the State in a host of planning activities Conduct workshops, meetings & research Coordinate w/State, local, tribal , private enterprise, non-profit, critical infrastructure, and Federal stakeholders � Ensure a “local up” approach that results in regionally sound, comprehensive and cohesive planning efforts � Develop decision matrices & identify resource shortfalls that can focus additional planning activities � Examine policies and procedures to identify challenges to coordinated response and recovery activities 12
Workshops & Exercises � November 2006 – HHD Kickoff � February 2007 – Regional Workshop joining Phase 1 and Phase 2 � March 15, 2007 – Agency Head & Emergency Coordinating Officer Project Orientation � April 2007 – State-Level Workshop � May 2007 – Statewide Hurricane Exercise � June 2007 – Regional Workshop in Miami-Dade (local focus) � Fall 2007 – State-Federal Workshop � Winter 2007/2008 – Second Regional Workshop � Spring 2008 – Target Completion & Preparation for Statewide Exercise in May of ‘08 13
Scenario-Driven Planning � “Hurricane Ono” scenario sets the “catastrophic bar,” helping to establish the necessary capacity of the resulting plans. � Participants at all levels of government contribute to the planning solutions, and the operational knowledge and experience captured make the resulting plans more viable. � Utilizes a realistic and comprehensive set of consequences for ALL stakeholders � Response and recovery actions will be based on the same planning assumptions & projected consequences � Allows ALL stakeholders to assess their existing and future plans in context of each other � Facilitates updates to and development of plans that address functional areas 14
Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls � Assess required capabilities based on Catastrophic Scenario • What do we need to do? � Develop scalable and adaptable methods, formulas, or matrices that indicate the quantity and type of assets needed to meet the capability • What do we need to do it? � Determine available resources within local, regional or States inventories, including pre-disaster contracts • What do we already have? � Establish protocols & policies that clearly articulate how to meet both required capabilities and fill gaps and identify resource limitations • How are we going to get our hands on what we have, and how will we get more? � Integrate with other scenario-based resource planning schemes across disciplines • What does this mean for the rest of the response and recovery activities? � Sustain the planning process to facilitate updates and changes 15
Comprehensive – Cohesive Planning, Complimenting Concurrent Efforts Regional Evacuation Studies Statewide Shelter Study County Annexes Regional/State Annexes (Dike, Catastrophic, Pandemic . . .) (Dike, Catastrophic, Pandemic . . .) 16
Comprehensive – Cohesive Planning, Complimenting Concurrent Efforts � Regional Evacuation Studies • Behavioral Studies • Vulnerability Assessment � Statewide Sheltering Plans � County Annexes • Comprehensive Emergency Management Plans • Herbert Hoover Dike Annexes • Catastrophic Plan Annexes � Regional Annexes • HHD Annex • Catastrophic Annex 17
18 Scenario-Driven Planning Workshops
19 Category 5 Hurricane Category 5 Hurricane Ono Nearing the Ono Nearing the Bahamas Bahamas
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21 Planning Scenario – Path of Hurricane Ono
Extended Track � How does this affect in-state mutual aid/resources? � How does this affect out-of-state assistance? 22
23 Herbert Hoover Dike Breaches Planning Scenario –
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