Carlisle Area School District, PA Demographic Study Findings - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Carlisle Area School District, PA Demographic Study Findings October 2015 1

Who We Are 2

Cropper GIS Consulting, LLC K-12 school planning is our business and our passion. Our specialty is redistricting, demographics and boundary studies. Who We Are Cropper GIS works with K-12 school districts to: • develop redistricting plans, • develop demographic studies, • facilitate community engagement, • prepare long-range facility master plans, • author site feasibility studies, • conduct & publish housing impact and yield factor studies, and • provide GIS implementation & training. Cropper GIS is an ESRI Authorized Business Partner 3

Principal & Project Manager Matthew Cropper, GISP, Cropper GIS •15+ years experience providing consulting servicesto school districts and other clients. Who We Are • Manages and Facilitates rezoning/planning projects across the U.S. •One of the only certified GIS Professionals (GISP) in the educational planning industry. •Trained school district personnel across the U.S. how to use & apply GIS. •Published numerous papers regarding boundary planning and master planning. 4

Jerome McKibben, PhD Experience - PhD in Demography, Bowling Green University - Taught demography, statistics, sociology within US & Europe - Served as a State Demographer of Indiana for 6 years - Fulbright Scholar Award Recipient, Germany 2002 Introductions - Testified before state legislatures, courts, and the US Congress regarding census and population issues Notable Publications “ School District Planning Needs and the 2010 Census ” . In Journal of Economic and Social Measurement , Vol. 33, No. 2, May 2007 “ The Impact of Policy Changes on Forecasting for School Districts ” . Population Research and Policy Review. Vol. 15, No.5, December 1996, P. 527-536 “ Race and Ethnicity. ” In Methods and Materials of Demography, Second Edition . Edited by Jacob Siegel and David Swanson. Academic Press, Boston, March 2004 “ Population Distribution - Classification of Residence. ” In Methods and Materials of Demography, Second Edition. Edited Jacob Siegel and David Swanson. Co-authored with Kimberly Faust. Academic Press, Boston, March 2004 5

Recent Planning Projects: • Reading School District, PA • Baltimore County Public Schools, MD • Frederick County Public Schools, MD Who We Are • Henrico County Public Schools, VA • Richmond Public Schools, VA • Billings Public Schools, MT • Morton School District 509, IL • Schenectady City Schools, NY • Charleston County Schools, SC • DeKalb District 428, IL • U.S. Department of Justice, Civil Rights Div. • Akron Public Schools, OH 6

Why We’re Here 7

Project Objectives Cropper GIS Consulting was hired by the Carlisle Area School District to facilitate and manage the project. Our firm is tasked to: A. Develop population forecasts by school attendance area by grade for Why We’re Here the next 10 years (i.e. 2015-16 through 2024-25). B. Develop enrollment forecasts for 2015-2016 to 2024-25 inclusive, by grade level for each elementary, middle school and high school attendance area. C. Study the impact of the Army War College on Carlisle Area School district enrollment. D. Analyze current and future demographic dynamics of the district and attendance areas. E. Develop a written report that summarizes demographic study findings. 8

Demographic Study & Enrollment Forecasts 9

Data Collected from multiple sources including: • School District– Official enrollment counts by school by grade, along with enrollment databases by address • County and Township Offices – Local area maps data on housing activity. • Internal Revenue Service (IRS) – In/Out Migration data. • U.S. Census Bureau – 2010 Population/Housing data • U.S. Army War College– Population/Housing data 10

Live Attend Analysis 11

Live Attend Analysis Live Attend Matrices Where 2014-15 K-5th Students Live n s I g d n n o n i t r s e c p n t i S t Where 2014-15 K-5th Students Attend Where 2014-15 K-5th Students Attend Where 2014-15 K-5th Students Attend i r d k A d t s y e w c n n i h l i t D e o a l D u c e o i t l t O v t e r l H f a r h o i i r t o m m a t e s o l T _ r t e o u v l a o n t e r e M M i H N C O U B L L 361 528 369 314 304 205 191 41 12 Bellaire Elementary School 406 9 18 1 1 1 4 335 37 67 Crestview Elementary School 528 11 5 2 1 12 1 485 11 42 Hamilton Elementary School 354 4 17 6 5 1 309 12 44 LeTort Elementary School 284 1 5 22 1 3 2 3 12 235 46 Mooreland Elementary School 316 5 3 7 1 5 4 2 20 269 45 Mt Holly Springs Elementary School 226 1 3 1 1 195 10 10 1 30 4 North Dickinson Elementary School 198 3 4 5 3 5 169 7 29 2 No School Attribute 13 1 2 3 3 2 2 Live In Attend Out 26 43 60 79 35 10 22 12

Live Attend Analysis 6-8 th Grades Live Attend Table Where 2014-15 6-8th Students Live n I d Where 2014-15 6-8th Where 2014-15 6-8th Where 2014-15 6-8th n t e c t i t r d A n t Students Attend Students Attend Students Attend s e o i t h t D u c r O n t e f a b o o m e s m t l v i u n a i W O U L L 560 551 14 5 Lamberton Middle School 560 524 29 4 33 3 Wilson Middle School 543 26 505 2 36 10 No School Attribute 27 10 17 Live In Attend Out 36 46 13

Live-Attend Analysis 14

Forecast Methodology “In order to understand what will happen with enrollment, you first must understand what will happen to the entire population” 15

Methodology Three Main Steps: 1. Identify pertinent census blocks to collect necessary SF1, SF3 and SF4 detailed Census demographic information 2. Calculate a total population forecast for geographic study area with the Cohort- Component Method 3. Calculate enrollment forecast using modified average survivorship methods 16

Demographic Study & Enrollment Forecasts Methodology, continued Factors Considered in Forecasts Include 1. Number of women in child bearing age 2. Change in area mortality rates 3. Magnitude & prevalence of out migration patterns by age 4. Magnitude & prevalence of in migration patterns 5. Considerations determined by local neighborhood factors 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 1,200 600 0 600 1,200 Males Females 17

Demographic Study The population forecasts in the demographic study are developed by using the Cohort-Component Method of population forecasting. Five data sets are required to generate population and enrollment forecasts. These five data sets are: •A base-year population (here, the 2010 Census population for the CASD Schools and all of its geographical areas i.e. School Attendance Areas); •A set of age-specific fertility rates for each small area to be used over the forecast period; •A set of age-specific survival (mortality) rates for each small area; •A set of age-specific migration rates for each small area; •Historical enrollment figures by grade for all facilities to be projected. •Historical enrollment databases were used to calculate student populations by small area regardless of where they attend. 18

Forecast Assumptions A. There will be no short term economic recovery in the next 18 months and the national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at anytime during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter) B. Interest rates have reached an historic low and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays below 5.0%; C. The rate of mortgage approval stays at 1999-2003 levels and lenders do not return to “sub-prime” mortgage practices; D. There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers; E. The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2007 average of Cumberland County for any year in the forecasts; 19

Forecast Assumptions F. All currently planned, platted, and approved housing developments are built out and completed by 2023. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2024. G. The unemployment rates for the Cumberland County will remain below 6% for the 10 years of the forecasts H. The rate of students transferring into and out of the Carlisle Area School District will remain at the 2010-11 to 2014-15 average I. The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts J. There will be no building moratorium within the district . K. Businesses within the district and the Cumberland County area will remain viable 20