County of Oxford Comprehensive Review (Phase 1) Presentation to Oxford County Council Phase One Comprehensive Review Draft Report Wednesday, April 10 th , 2019
Today we will discuss… • Phase One Comprehensive Report: • Policy framework and study purpose • Recent growth and change • County-wide outlook • Area Municipal allocations • Land needs assessment 1
Policy Context and Study Purpose Study purpose • Update and extend County growth outlook to 2046 • Forecast population, housing and employment growth in • Area Municipalities and assess land need from 2019 to 2039 Establish basis for updates to Oxford County Official Plan • as well as land use planning, servicing, and financial planning studies Study Undertaken in Context of Planning Policy • Framework Provincial Policy Statement (PPS), 2014 – provides • provincial direction for managing growth and land uses, including directing most growth to serviced settlement areas Oxford County Official Plan – implements PPS for Oxford • and its Area Municipalities; currently projects growth to 2036 2 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
Recent Residential Growth in Oxford Higher than Historical Trends Census indicated • Historical Population and Net In-Migration County of Oxford, 2001-2016 Population Growth very high growth Total Population Census Year Net In-Migration (Including Census Net Compound Annual Net Change Undercoverage) Growth Rate 2011-2016, relative 2001 103,200 2006 106,600 3,400 0.65% 2,250 to past trends 2011 108,700 2,100 0.39% 2,050 2016 113,900 5,200 0.94% 3,710 Building activity • Historical Household Growth County of Oxford, 2001-2016 Household Growth suggests high Census Year Households Compound Annual Net Change Growth Rate growth will continue 2001 37,270 2006 39,310 2,040 1.1% in the short-term 2011 41,560 2,250 1.1% 2016 44,270 2,710 1.3% 3 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
Residential Growth Highlights Demographic Changes Household growth outpacing • growth in population Largely due to aging • population and resulting decline in average household size Average Household Size, Oxford County, 2001-2016 Persons per unit Year (ppu) 2001 2.62 2016 2.57 2011 2.50 2016 2.47 4 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
Oxford Population is Aging HISTORICAL AGE STRUCTURE Aging of the baby boom • OXFORD COUNTY, 2006 & 2016 drives overall aging 100+ 2006 Male 95 - 99 2006 Female 90 - 94 85 - 89 Out-migration of millennials 2016 Male • 80 - 84 2016 Female also affects age structure 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 Without in-migration, aging • 55 - 59 50 - 54 population combined with 45 - 49 low fertility rates will cause 40 - 44 35 - 39 population decline 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5 - 9 0 - 4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on Statistics Canada data. 5 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
General Pattern of Housing Continues Recent Residential Building Permits by Area Municipality 60% Recent building activity has • 50% reinforced long-standing 40% 30% settlement patterns in Oxford 20% 10% 0% Housing dominated by low • density “ground - oriented” units, owing to the rural 2011-2016 2017-2018 character of many 40,000 Housing by Unit Type, Oxford County communities 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Single/Semi Row Apt 2001 2016 6 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
Recent Employment Growth Strong Compared to Other Industrial Centres • Relatively steady job growth County-wide since 2001, with variation at the Area Municipal level • As with population and housing, most employment growth was in Woodstock • Other Area Municipalities, especially Ingersoll and Southwest Oxford, have also experienced job growth (albeit slower) • County shows strong job performance in context of southwestern Ontario Historical Total Place of Work Employment Oxford County, 2001-2016 Year Employment Net Change Growth Rate Activity Rate 2001 48,080 2006 52,960 4,880 1.95% 48.4% 2011 53,140 180 0.07% 51.5% 2016 57,330 4,190 1.53% 50.3% 7 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
Oxford Employment Growth Especially Concentrated in Industrial Activities TOTAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY NAICS Strong industrial • OXFORD COUNTY, 2001 - 2016 sector, but almost all 2001-06 recent Primary 2006-11 manufacturing Construction 2011-16 growth related to Manufacturing & Transportation and Warehousing the two auto plants Trade Information & Cultural Most employment Industries and Prof., Scientific Services • FIRE related to providing (Finance; Insurance; Real Estate; Leasing) services to Oxford Administrative and support and Other Services residents Educational & Health Care and Social Services Accommodation & Food Services and Arts, Entertainment Public Administration -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on Statistics Canada data. 8 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
Oxford’s Changing Relationship to GGH Recent growth largely • driven by migration from Greater Golden Horseshoe While most growth • concentrated in Woodstock, all Area Municipalities have been growing 9 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
County Should Plan For Higher Population and Housing Growth Historical & Forecast Total Population Growth, 1991 - 2046 County of Oxford 10,000 9,000 Forecasts assume: • 8,950 8,000 7,950 7,810 7,600 7,524 7,410 7,400 7,000 Continued high levels of net in- • 6,000 migration from GGH in short and 5,000 5,273 medium term 4,000 4,254 3,000 3,348 2,000 2,124 More modest growth in longer term • 1,000 as population continues to age 0 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41 2041-46 Historical & Forecast Total Housing Unit Growth, 1991 - 2046 County of Oxford Housing still dominated by • 4,500 single and semi-detached 4,000 3,980 units — though expect 3,500 increasing number of 3,000 3,100 3,080 3,020 2,705 2,500 2,640 rowhouses and some 2,540 2,520 2,250 2,000 apartments 2,045 1,500 1,580 1,000 500 0 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41 2041-46 10 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
Expect Robust Employment Growth to Continue County to grow by Historical and Forecast Total Employment • Oxford County, 2016-2046 21,000 jobs between Year Employment Growth Growth Rate Activity Rate 2016 and 2046 2001 48,100 2006 53,000 4,900 1.96% 48.4% 2011 53,100 100 0.04% 51.5% 2016 57,300 4,200 1.53% 50.3% 2021 62,100 4,800 1.62% 51.7% Rate of job growth will • 2026 64,600 2,500 0.79% 51.9% 2031 67,200 2,600 0.79% 50.9% be line with population 2036 70,400 3,200 0.93% 50.0% 2041 74,100 3,700 1.03% 49.5% growth 2046 78,400 4,300 1.13% 49.6% 2016-2046 21,100 Growth will be • Proportion of Oxford County Employment by Type, 2046 balanced between industrial jobs on employment land and “population related” jobs 11 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
All Area Municipalities Will Experience Growth County-wide residential • forecasts allocated to Area Municipalities based on shares of household growth Shares of County-wide Household Growth 2016-2046 In consultation with County • and Area Municipal staff, we have considered: Recent development trends • Land supply and level of services • Woodstock Norwich Tillsonburg South-West Oxford Ingersoll Zorra Consistent with PPS, most • East Zorra-Tavistock Blandford-Blenheim growth directed to Settlement Areas with existing municipal services 12 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment
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