Capitol View V O L U M E 4 , N U M B E R 4 N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 6 SUNDOWN ON THE 109TH Election and the New Congress According to most pre-election polls that showed a low level of satisfaction among the electorate over the performance of Congress, it was generally expected that the Democrats would pick up seats in both the Senate and the House in the November 7 election. An analysis of all major polls compiled by Real Clear Politics on October 23 found the current Republican controlled Congress with a 24% approval rating and a 69% disapproval rating. In order to win control of the new 110 th Congress, the Democrats needed to pick up 15 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. They more than met that goal by increasing the number of House seats by at least 28 for a likely total of some 230 Democratic seats, and winning the necessary 6 seats in the Senate for a Democratic majority of 51. The Democratic gains in both Chambers exceeded earlier predictions. While the Cook Report on October 24 predicted a loss of 20-25 Republican seats, Real Clear Politics reported that an average of all major polls conducted in early November predicted Democrats picking up 19 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. Although the Republican losses in the election were significant they were not unprecedented for a President's party in the 6 th year of his term during war time. Going back as far as the Civil War, the average loss in this situation was about 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats. What is unprecedented for the 2006 mid term election is that both sides spent a staggering $2.6 billion. The most immediate and important change for the Senate and House, of course, means different party leadership and new Chairs for all Committees and Subcommittees. When the 110 th Congress convenes in January of 2007 the new Speaker of the House will be Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). There may be contests for other Democratic Leadership posts so the new Majority Leader could be either Steny Hoyer (D-MD) or John Murtha (D-PA). The Majority Whip will be James Clyburn (D-SC). The current Speaker, Dennis Hastert (R-IL), does not intend to run for Minority Leader in the new Congress so that post could go to either John Boehner (R-OH) or Mike Pence (R-IN). The position of Minority Whip will be held by either Roy Blunt (R-MO) or John Shadegg (R-AZ). In the Senate the new Majority Leader will be Harry Reid (D-NV) and the Majority Whip will be Richard Durbin (D-IL). The Minority Leader will be Mitch McConnell (R-KY) while the Minority Whip will be either Trent Lott (R-MS) or Lamar Alexander (R-TN). The new Committee Chairs will have a profound impact on the subject of hearings to be held and the legislation to be forwarded to the Floor for consideration by the House and Senate. V A L U E A D D E D , V A L U E S D R I V E N. M S
C A P I T O L V I E W N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 6 2 The likely Chairs of some major House Committees come January will be: • Judiciary – John Conyers (D-MI) • Appropriations – David Obey (D-WI) • Financial Services – Barney Frank (D-MA) • Government Reform – Henry Waxman (D-CA) • Armed Services – Ike Skelton (D-MO) • Budget – John Spratt (D-SC) • International Relations – Tom Lantos (D-CA) • Ways & Means – Charles Rangel (D-NY) • Transportation – James Oberstar (DFL-MN) • Agriculture – Collin Peterson (DFL-MN) • Education – George Miller (D-CA) • Homeland Security – Bennie Thompson (D-MS) • Intelligence – Jane Harman (D-CA), Alcee Hastings (D-FL) or Silvestre Reyes (D-TX) • Resources – Nick Rahall (D-WV) The probable chairs of the major Senate Committees will be: • Appropriations – Robert Byrd (D-WV) • Armed Services – Carl Levin (D-MI) • Banking – Chris Dodd (D-CT) • Budget – Kent Conrad (D-ND) • Commerce – Daniel Inouye (D-HI) • Energy & Natural Resources – Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) • Environment & Public Works – Barbara Boxer (D-CA) • Finance – Max Baucus (D-MT) • Foreign Relations – Joseph Biden (D-DE) • Health, Education & Labor – Ted Kennedy (D-MA) • Homeland Security – Joe Lieberman (I-CT) • Judiciary – Pat Leahy (D-VT) The near term agenda for Congressional Democrats includes a review of the policy in Iraq, raising the minimum wage, eliminating some tax subsidies for oil companies, providing assistance for student loans, instituting pay as you go budget rules, increasing incentives for ethanol, authorizing the Federal government to negotiate for lower drug prices in the Medicare program and implementing all of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. The full implementation of the Commission recommendations will have a significant impact on port and border security. As our Partner Jim Burnley, who served as Secretary of Transportation in the Reagan Administration, has noted, "Companies in the business of moving cargo across our borders, or anywhere by air, will need to be proactive in the debate about how to assure the continuing efficient movement of goods. Draconian inspection demands that don't substantially increase our security could gravely damage our economy." There will also be a significant increase in oversight of Executive Branch agencies by Congressional committees. V A L U E A D D E D , V A L U E S D R I V E N. M S
C A P I T O L V I E W N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 6 3 In addition to these agenda items, other Venable attorneys predict some significant changes in policy growing out of the elections. • Financial Services – "The Democratic majority can be expected to make a concerted effort to tie a ribbon on the long-pending GSA reforms soon after the 110 th Congress convenes in January. The financial services industry should also expect to see much greater emphasis on consumer protection in a number of areas, including data security, predatory lending and in promoting affordable housing initiatives." William Donovan, Partner • Health Care – "Two of the potential committee chairmen, John Dingell and Henry Waxman, both experts on using the power of committees to push change are likely to focus some of their energies on health care and the pharmaceutical industry….As for oversight, off-label marketing of drugs, patent litigation settlements, and drug safety will all be on the table, something that pharma companies have not had to worry about under a Republican controlled House." Catherine Bennett, Partner • Energy Policy – "There will be an extreme shift in attitude towards energy policy, especially in the House, during the next session under Democratic leadership and it's a pretty safe bet that hearings and inquiries will come. The Democrats are well aware that President Bush is vulnerable on energy issues, especially if gasoline and home heating oil prices spike or portions of our aging electric infrastructure produce power spikes or outages." Richard Powers, Partner • Taxation – "The big surprise for most people is that Congress could reach a bipartisan compromise on the estate tax by the end of 2007. Despite the philosophical differences surrounding this issue, there is bipartisan desire to forge a compromise and eliminate the growing uncertainty regarding the fate of the estate tax after 2010. The passing of the election could provide the window of opportunity needed for a consensus to emerge." Sam Olchyk, Partner • Foreign Policy – "The Democratic party's critique of the Iraq war is in many respects very similar to what is being articulated by many Republicans. In fact, few Democrats are advocating for an abrupt pull-out from Iraq. Many in both parties feel that more U.S. personnel and money are needed now in order to achieve a successful conclusion to the mission." James Jatras, Partne r • Communication – "Increased scrutiny of ownership consolidation among media, entertainment, and communications companies may be high on a Democratic Congress' priority list. Democrats will likely subject media and communications industry mergers to increased scrutiny." Erik Huey, Of Counsel Lame Duck Session The 109 th Congress returned on November 13 for its post-election lame duck session. Among the priorities for consideration during the session will be the Appropriation bills. To date only the Defense Appropriation bill (P.L.109-646) and the Homeland Security Appropriation bill (P.L. 109-295) have been signed into law. With the exception of the Labor, Health Human Services and Education Appropriation bill (H.R.5647) the House has passed the remaining nine Appropriation bills but the Senate has not. In addition to H.R. 5647, therefore, the Senate will have to decide on the manner in which it will debate and pass the Appropriation bills for Agriculture (H.R.5381), Science, State, Justice and Commerce (H.R.5672), Energy and Water (H.R.5427), Foreign V A L U E A D D E D , V A L U E S D R I V E N. M S
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