Canadian Labour Market Benjamin Tal June 2013 CIBC Employment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mismatch in the Canadian Labour Market Benjamin Tal June 2013

CIBC Employment Quality Index Index Jan 1988=100 105 12-mos moving avg 100 95 90 85 80 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Source: CIBC calculations based on Statistics Canada’s tabulations. | 2

Slow Growth in Number of Full-Time High-Paying Jobs 150 Employment index 1988=100 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Low-paying industries Mid-paying industries 70 High-paying industries 60 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Note: Low-paying (below 85% of median wage), Mid-paying (between 85%-115% of median wage), High-paying (over 115% of median wage) Source: CIBC calculations based on Statistics Canada’s tabulations. | 3

Wage Gains Not Much Difference During High-paying Industries Led the 1990s Jobless Recovery the Way in Recent Years and the Early 2000 130 Wage index 2005=100 125 Wage index Dec 1992=100 3-mos moving avg 3-mos moving avg 125 120 120 115 115 110 110 105 105 100 100 Low-paying industries Low-paying industries 95 95 Mid-paying industries Mid-paying industries High-paying industries High-paying industries 90 90 05 07 09 11 13 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Source: CIBC calculations based on Statistics Canada’s tabulations. | 4

Stable Unemployment Masks Rising Vacancies Vacancies to Unemployment Rate Unemployment Ratio 9.0 % 20 % 19 8.5 18 8.0 17 7.5 16 7.0 15 6.5 14 6.0 13 5.5 12 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 5.0 11 12 Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC | 5

Skill Shortage Distribution of Employment (2012) Occupations facing skilled shortage Others Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC calculations | 6

Surplus Labour Unemployment Rate Total Unemployment 9.0 % 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 Surplus labour 6.5 Others 6.0 5.5 excluding occupations 5.0 with surplus labour 4.5 4.0 10 11 12 Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC | 7

The Inflow Rate (L); Long-Term Unemployment (R ) Unemployed 1-13 Weeks as Unemployed 27 Weeks+ as a share of Labour Force a share of Labour Force %, 6-mo moving avg 2.0 %, 6-mo moving avg 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 1.5 4.7 avg avg 4.5 4.3 1.0 4.1 3.9 3.7 0.5 3.5 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC | 8

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