CALIFORNIA LOOKING FORWARD: LINKING INCLUSION & PROSPERITY IN - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CALIFORNIA LOOKING FORWARD: LINKING INCLUSION & PROSPERITY IN THE NEW ECONOMY @PERE_USC 07-19-2015 MANUEL PASTOR @Prof_MPastor

Decadal Population Growth Rates by Race/Ethnicity United States, 1980-2010 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 150% 130% 109% 110% 90% 70% 58% 53% 50% 50% 43% 43% 30% 16% 12% 11% 4% 3% 10% 1% -10% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander -30% -50%

Decadal Population Growth Rates by Race/Ethnicity California, 1980-2010 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 150% 129% 130% 110% 90% 69% 70% 50% 43% 38% 31% 28% 30% 17% 8% 4% 10% -1% -7% -5% -10% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander -30% -50%

Changing Demographics United States, 1980-2040 100% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 9% Other 90% 13% 12% 16% 12% 20% 80% 23% Native American 27% 12% 70% 12% 12% Asian/Pacific 12% 60% Islander 12% Latino 50% 40% 80% 76% Black 69% 64% 30% 59% 54% 50% White 20% 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

U.S. Change in Youth (<18) Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2010 4,788,632 875,683 781,946 White Black Latino API Other -248,081 -4,310,525

Change in Youth Population by Race/Ethnicity U.S. and California, 2000-2010 White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Other 50% 39% 40% 31% 31% 30% 17% 20% 12% 8% 10% 0% U.S. California -2% -10% -10% -20% -20% -21% -30%

IMMIGRATION AS A (NON-) FACTOR A Leveling Off: Immigrant Share of Total Population California, Los Angeles, and the U.S. 50% Los Angeles 40% 30% California 20% United States 10% 0% 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

A MUCH MORE SETTLED IMMIGRANT POPULATION 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0% North Dakota South Dakota Wyoming Kentucky Alabama Nebraska Indiana Mississippi Tennessee Iowa Percent of Immigrant Population in U.S. Since 1999 Missouri Louisiana Oklahoma Minnesota District of Columbia Delaware Arkansas South Carolina Kansas North Carolina Ohio West Virginia Georgia Virginia Maryland Wisconsin Colorado Utah Pennsylvania Massachusetts Montana Washington Alaska Idaho Oregon Texas Michigan Connecticut New Jersey New Hampshire Florida New Mexico Illinois New York Nevada Hawaii Rhode Island Arizona Maine Vermont California

Percent Foreign-born by Length of Time in U.S. by State 30% CA 25% Percent Share of State That is Foreign-Born NY NJ 20% FL NV HI TX MA 15% MD IL DC RI AZ CT WA VA NM 10% OR CO GA UT DE NC MN AK KS NE MI ID PA NH OK 5% TN IN IA SC WI AR MO OH VT LA AL WY KY ME SD ND MS MT WV 0% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Percent Immigrants Arrived Before 2000 Prepared by USC PERE | 8

THE GAP MATTERS

THE GAP MATTERS

AGAINST A CONTEXT OF GROWING INEQUALITY Income Distribution in the U.S., 1917-2012 Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity/Nativity, 25% 2006-2010 20% percent of income 15% 10% Top 1% (incomes above $394,000 in 2012) 5% Top 5-1% (incomes between $161,000 and $394,000) Top 10-5% (incomes between $114,000 and $161,000) 0% 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: Emmanuel Saez, Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Update : September 15, 2013.

BUT WE MOVE UP OVER TIME? Class “Stickiness” Income Inequality 21

WE USED TO BE OPPORTUNITY-RICH . . . Gini Index by State (2007-2009) 0.52 Once considered a land of 0.50 opportunity, California is now one of the most unequal states in the U.S. 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.40 Illinois South Carolina Pennsylvania Arizona Missouri South Dakota New York Connecticut Louisiana Mississippi Florida California Alabama Georgia Massachusetts Kentucky North Carolina Arkansas New Mexico Oklahoma Rhode Island Virginia West Virginia Colorado Michigan Ohio North Dakota Oregon Kansas Maryland Montana Washington Minnesota Delaware Maine Indiana Nevada Nebraska Idaho Vermont Wyoming Wisconsin Iowa Hawaii New Hampshire Utah Alaska Texas Tennessee New Jersey Note: The Gini coefficient is a measure of income inequality. A zero coefficient implies that all households in a state have exactly the same amount of wealth, while a coefficient of 1.0 means a single household has all the state's income.

Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full-Time Workers 25-64 ($2010) U.S. and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metro, 1980-2010* Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA United States 19% 17% 8% 7% 10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile -6% -6% -8% -10% -21% -22%

Changing Returns to Education in California, 1979-2009 $35 Real wage earned at various $30 education points – note that the return has increased for college grads such that the wage premium was about 100 $25 percent in 1979 and is now nearly 200 percent in 2009 $20 1979 $15 2009 $10 $5 $0 < high school high school only some college, no AA or equivalent BA or better degree Prepared by USC PERE | April 23, 2013 | 24

BUT AT LEAST RACIAL PROGRESS? Ratio of U.S. Resident Median Family Income 1947-2013 (Blacks and Latinos Relative to Whites) 80% Minority Median Family Income as percent of White Median Family Income 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Ratio Black to White Income Ratio Black to Non-Hispanic White Income 45% Ratio Latino to Non-Hispanic White Income 40% 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity California 1990 2006-2010 40% 37% 33% 32% 25% 25% 22% 22% 18% 16% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific All Islander

A TIDE IS TURNING: EQUITY AND GROWTH Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency. But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth — for everyone. Image source: http://storage.cloversites.com/northriverside baptistchurch/site_images/sub_page70_picture0.jpg

WHAT’S NEW: EQUITY IS OF CONCERN

WHAT’S NEW: EQUITY IS OF CONCERN Hot topic at 2014 World Economic Forum: Inequality as the #1 global risk

THE GOOD NEWS: EQUITY AND GROWTH Even the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth. Image Sources: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/2/24/1235500211963/Ben-Bernanke-chairman-of--003.jpg; http://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Fed-logo_trans.png; http://www.benjamindrickey.com/gallery/gallery_federal_reserve.jpg

THE GOOD NEWS: EQUITY AND GROWTH We found this in our research, too.

IT’S A BROADER STORY  Underinvestment in each other makes us less competitive as a nation  Social tensions over who will gain and who will lose make us less likely to cohere on what we need to do to thrive

AND WHY SO IMPORTANT NOW? http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/847889448.gif?1397145494&maxX=740&maxY=704

A TIDE IS TURNING . . . In November 2012, Proposition 30 passes — directing funding toward schools — a product of multi-year community organizing which also showed that movement mattered more than money.

A TIDE IS TURNING . . . In October 2013, after years of strategic organizing by organizing groups, California passed the Trust Act — protecting those arrested for misdemeanors against deportation — and approved drivers’ licenses for Source: http://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-brown-immigration-20131006,0,5441798.story#axzz2rrkVSPxM undocumented Californians.

A TIDE IS TURNING . . . In November 2014, a statewide, cross-sector coalition pushed nearly 60% of voters to pass Proposition 47 — reducing nonviolent crimes from Source: http://www.cacalls.org/california-calls-11th-civic-engagement-campaign-wraps-up-with-101811-voters-contacted-statewide/ felonies to a misdemeanors and so helping shutdown the school-to-prison pipeline. Source: Californians for Safety and Justice

BUT WILL MOMENT BECOME MOVEMENT? Ensuring that California’s moment of change becomes a sustained movement for equity requires attention and investment in our state’s “organizing infrastructure” — that is, the ecosystem of social movements working to improve Source: http://www.industrialareasfoundation.org/topics/faith-action conditions for communities by changing systems of power.

LEADING FORWARD  So it’s a challenge: we must be making not just the moral case but the business case for equity in education & beyond  To invest for the future, we need to understand revenues as much as we understand spending And this comes not simply  through good ideas but by mobilizing constituencies