Building a Grad Nation: Progress and Challenge in Ending the High - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Building a Grad Nation: Progress and Challenge in Ending the High School Dropout Epidemic 2012 Update Lead Sponsor Supporting Sponsor A report by C IVIC E NTERPRISES

Education and the Economy “We need to educate our way to a better economy.” Arne Duncan U.S. Secretary of Education “ In the long term... the best way by far to improve economic opportunity and to reduce inequality is to increase the educational attainment and skills of American workers. ” Ben S. Bernanke Chairman, Federal Reserve

What’s at Stake?  Workforce of future demands more education In 1973, 72% of 91 million workers required high school or less • By 2018, only 36% of jobs for workers with high school or less • By 2020, 75% of U.S. workforce will be high & middle-skilled • 53% of business leaders at large companies and 67% at small companies say it is difficult • to recruit qualified employees in the U.S., despite unemployment at over 8% Savings to taxpayers  Moving just one dropout to graduate status yields more than $200,000 in higher • tax revenues and lower government expenditures over his/her lifetime Graduating half of one class of dropouts would save U.S. taxpayers $45 billion in that • year

Civic Marshall Plan of Action National Goals 1.90% high school graduation rate by 2020 • Cohort approach: Class of 2020 – today’s 4 th graders • Target “ Dropout factory ” high schools and feeder schools • Data-driven, research-based interventions • “ Big Institutional Plays ” 2.Highest college attainment rates in the world • Double attainment rates to 6 in 10, up from 3 in 10 today

The Latest Graduation Rate Data PROGRESS Nation’ s high school graduation rate increased from 72% to 75.5% from • 2001 to 2009; half a point from 75% to 75.5% from 2008 to 2009 Wisconsin -- first state to achieve 90% goal and Vermont 0.4 shy at 89.6% • CHALLENGE If rate of progress from first decade of 21st Century continues during the • second, nation’ s graduation rate will be closer to 80% than 90% Need to accelerate progress three-fold – from 0.4 percentage points per year • over the last decade to 1.3 percentage points

Civic Marshall Plan of Action 10 Research-based Benchmarks Elementary and Middle School (2012-2016) Grade level reading 1. Chronic absenteeism 2. Early warning systems 3. Middle grades redesign 4. Adult/peer tutors and mentors 5. High School (2017-2020) Transition supports 6. Dropout factories 7. Compulsory school age, coupled with supports 8. Pathways to college and career 9. 10. Dropout recovery

Civic Marshall Plan Benchmarks Substantially increase number of students reading with proficiency by 4th grade Progress From 2000 to 2011, percent of America ’ s 4th-graders scoring at or above proficient in • reading increased from 29 percent in 2000 to 34 percent in 2011 Major initiatives: the Campaign for Grade-level Reading • Challenge More than 65 percent of 4th-graders continue to score below proficiency in reading. •

Establish early warning systems (EWS) that track predictors of potential dropout Progress EWS have grown from powerful idea into high- • priority reform effort 1/3 of states have all of the information • needed in state longitudinal data systems Successes: Big Brothers Big Sisters of Eastern • Missouri and Cape Girardeau Public Schools Challenge Next step is scale • 16 states have no plans or no date set for • EWS ; of those 16 that report using, only 4 report distributing to educators on a regular basis

Civic Marshall Plan Benchmarks Raise compulsory school attendance age, coupled with comprehensive supports Progress 63% of states with graduation rates above national average have school age law of 17 or 18 • 12 states have recently updated their laws to 17 or 18 • Some states have followed National Conference of State Legislatures recommendations, • linking compulsory school age law with enforcement — suspending drivers licenses President Obama’s 2012 State of the Union • Challenge 18 states still permit students to drop out at 16 even though high school diploma • and some college needed for most jobs and research shows raising age contains dropouts Legislation introduced in majority of these 18 states •

New Plank: Support comprehensive dropout recovery programs for disconnected youth Progress White House Council for Community • Solutions issued Economic Case, Opportunity Road, and Employer Toolkit to help reconnect youth to school & work Significant efforts underway: YouthBuild, YearUp, • Transfer Schools in NYC, and Youth Connection Charter Schools in Chicago. Challenge One in six, or 6.7 million of the 38.9 million youth • ages 16-24, are disconnected from school and work. They cost taxpayers $1.6 trillion and society $4.7 trillion over their lifetimes.

How to Achieve 90% High School Graduation Rate by 2020? What the Most Recent Data Tell Us

Fewer Dropout Factories Total Number of Dropout Factories 2,007 Class of 2002 1,746 Class of 2008 1,634 Class of 2009 1,550 Class of 2010

Number of Dropout Factories: 2020 Projections at Current Rate of Progress

Progress is Accelerating Number of dropout factory high schools and students attending them declines at an accelerating rate -- but much work remains There were 457 fewer dropout factory high schools in 2010 (1550) than 2002 (2007), • a 23 percent decline, particularly within suburbs and towns and in the South During this period, 790,000 fewer students attended dropout factory high schools • The rate of decline was significantly faster between 2008 and 2010 than it was • between 2002 and 2008 in the number of dropout factories and the number of students attending them, primarily in cities

Change in Graduation Rates, 2002 – 2009 Half the states move forward. Half do not. Progress Challenge

Progress: Driven by Twelve States Number of Additional Graduates in 2009 National 116,706 Leading States New York 31,978 Tennessee 13,880 Florida 12,242 Georgia 8,696 North Carolina 7,969 Texas 6,657 South Carolina 4,801 Missouri 4,775 Alabama 4,693 Massachusetts 4,468 Wisconsin 4,253 Kentucky 4,205 Sub-Total 12 Leading States 108,617

10 States Went the Wrong Direction Number of Fewer Graduates in 2009 National 116,706 Lagging States California -8913 Nevada -5512 Connecticut -1994 Arizona -1892 New Mexico -720 New Jersey -557 Utah -422 Arkansas -303 Nebraska -235 Rhode Island -53 Sub-Total 10 Lagging -20,601 States

Analyzing States Not Making Progress Needs to move <2,000 Needs to move >5,000 students students Needs <1% point Near and Few Near and Many Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New improvement North Dakota, South Dakota Jersey, Ohio Needs >1% improvement Far and Few Far and Many Rhode Island, Arkansas, Arizona, Wyoming Connecticut, California, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Virginia, Washington Alaska, Delaware, Maine, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Role Models Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Vermont Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin

Conclusion  The battle to meet the national high school graduation rate goal will be won or lost in 13 states. These states: • have not made much progress have large numbers of students to get back on track to graduate • • need to improve their graduation rate by a percentage point or more per year Arizona Mississippi Arkansas Nevada Connecticut New Mexico California Oklahoma Illinois Virginia Indiana Washington Michigan

Civic Marshall Plan State Indices Where does your state stand? Child Poverty Rate • Reading and Math Proficiency • Graduation Rate • Dropout Factories Numbers • College Completion Rates • Economic Benefits •

Civic Marshall Plan 10-point State Strategy 1. Use Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate (ACGR) to target efforts 2. Invest strategically in highest return efforts along graduation pipeline 3. Use No Child Left Behind (NCLB) waivers to target attention and resources 4. Raise the compulsory school age 5. Learn from successful models like TN and NY 6. Conduct a policy audit to ensure policies support graduation for all 7. Use longitudinal data to understand and meet school/student needs 8. Implement early warning systems 9. Measure and report on chronic absenteeism 10. Develop a state Civic Marshall Plan