Brexit, England and the Future of the Tory ry Party Ailsa Henderson - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

This Other Eden: Brexit, England and the Future of the Tory ry Party Ailsa Henderson @ailsa_henderson Richard Wyn Jones @RWynJones 2 October 2018

Brexit and the Union • Brexit consequentials • What type of union is this? • The policy union • The sharing union • With whom will we share? • Who gets fair share? • Challenges for the Conservative Party

The Future of f England Surveys, 1 • Most detailed body of research into political attitudes in England • Conducted by University of Edinburgh and Cardiff University team; all fieldwork by YouGov (NI by Lucid Talk) • Surveys conducted in 2011-2012, 2014-2018 • 2014 and 2018 have surveys in England, Scotland and Wales • 2018 samples England 2741, Scotland 1502, Wales 2016, Northern Ireland 1089 • Several key findings in previous work…

The Future of f England Surveys, 2 England and its Two Unions • Considerable dissatisfaction with the EU • But also unhappiness with how England treated within the UK, and ‘Devo - anxiety’ – sense that constitutional change has unfairly advantaged others, particularly Scots • Close relationship between attitudes to the two unions AND close relationship between attitudes to both unions and an English identity that has become more prominent • All findings reinforced and supported by latest evidence

Brexit consequentials

Brexit: is it worth it? Jeopardising peace in Northern Ireland Yes vote in indyref2 100 100 90 90 80 80 68 67 70 70 57 60 60 54 54 53 52 51 49 49 47 46 46 50 50 43 40 40 33 32 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Worth it to take back control Not worth it Worth it to take back control Not worth it England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Price worth paying for Brexit: peace in NI By Brexit vote By national identity 100 80 75 70 87 90 84 83 70 80 75 60 70 50 46 60 43 41 50 40 40 27 30 25 30 20 20 12 10 10 10 10 3 1 0 0 Leavers Remainers x not British British not x England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Price worth paying for Brexit: Yes in indyref2 By Brexit vote By national identity 100 80 75 88 88 70 86 90 70 80 71 60 56 70 52 50 50 60 40 50 40 31 40 27 30 27 30 20 20 15 15 12 10 10 0 0 Leavers Remainers x not British British not x England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Policy union

Support for policy uniformity Should be the same across the UK 100 90 80 79 77 80 75 72 70 70 69 68 70 63 61 61 60 60 57 60 52 51 51 47 47 50 40 30 20 10 0 Punishment of Prescription Paying for old Tuition fees Unemployment young charges care benefit offenders

Support for policy uniformity Should be the same between EU and UK (after it leaves) Should be the same across the UK 100 100 90 90 83 80 80 79 79 77 77 80 76 75 80 75 73 72 72 71 71 70 70 70 70 70 69 69 69 68 68 67 70 70 64 63 61 61 60 60 59 59 57 60 60 52 51 51 51 50 47 47 50 50 43 43 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Punishment of Prescription Paying for old Tuition fees Unemployment Mobile phone Health Free mvmt of Free mvmt of Food hygiene Waste policy young charges care benefit roaming insurance for unskilled skilled standards for litter on offenders charges holiday workers (eg workers (eg beaches makers farm drs) labourers)

The take back control paradox? ENGLAND Should be the same between the UK and the EU (after it leaves) All Remain Leave 90 83 82 80 79 76 80 72 71 69 68 68 70 63 63 62 62 59 60 48 50 43 40 27 30 20 10 0 Mobile phone roaming Food hygiene Litter control Health insurance Movement of skilled Movement of unskilled charges workers workers

The take back control paradox? LEAVE voters Should be the same between the UK and the EU (after it leaves) England Scotland Wales 100 90 80 69 68 70 65 63 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 59 60 49 48 46 50 40 27 27 30 24 20 10 0 Mobile phone roaming Food hygiene Litter control Health insurance Movement of skilled Movement of unskilled charges workers workers

The take back control paradox? Conservative voters Should be the same between the UK and the EU (after it leaves) 100 90 80 72 70 70 68 66 70 65 65 65 64 64 63 62 60 55 51 50 50 40 33 29 28 30 20 10 0 Mobile phone roaming Food hygiene Litter control Health insurance Movement of skilled Movement of unskilled charges workers workers England Scotland Wales

Sharing union

Who will share …? With the whole of the UK With England With Scotland With Wales With Northern Ireland 100 90 80 70 60 55 49 47 50 44 42 38 38 40 31 29 29 30 26 24 17 20 15 15 15 10 0 England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Who will share …? Conservative voters With the whole of the UK With England With Scotland With Wales With Northern Ireland 100 90 80 70 57 60 50 44 37 40 31 29 30 26 24 17 17 20 15 15 8 10 0 England Scotland Wales

Who gets LESS than their fair share…? England gets less Scotland gets less Wales gets less NI gets less 100 90 80 70 60 50 50 39 40 34 30 29 28 30 26 24 21 19 17 20 12 10 7 7 10 6 0 England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Union of f ignorance? Don't know about England Don't know about Scotland Don't know about Wales Don't know about NI 100 90 80 70 60 50 46 44 41 40 38 38 38 40 34 30 26 26 25 23 20 18 20 12 9 10 0 England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Conclusions • Brexit serves to highlight how much voters value (or not) certain aspects of the union • Losing Scotland, and peace in NI seen as price worth paying for Brexit (esp for Leave voters and Conservative voters) • Policy union?: Greater support for policy uniformity between UK and EU than within UK (even for Leave voters, Conservative voters across GB) • Sharing union? No particular support for sharing resources with particular parts of UK • Union of grievance (and at times union of ignorance) • Challenges for Conservatives • Divided in terms of vision of union (sharing) • And, on some questions, don’t seem particularly unionist (on policy uniformity or sharing, or Scottish independence) • Their own supporters want policy uniformity with the EU once the UK leaves