Bracing for the Demographic Tsunami Second Roundtable on Seniors Transportation Hosted by the Alberta Motor Association and the Edmonton Seniors Coordinating Council Thursday November 29, 2007 Edmonton Glenn R. Miller, FCIP, RPP
Outline • Yesterday’s preoccupation: planning for the car • Today’s challenge: seniors and their mobility • Tomorrow’s reality: the demographic tsunami • Mobility impaired - how aging impacts driving, transit use and pedestrian safety • What in the world are we thinking? • Examples from the EU, UK, Japan, and Canada • Part 2 - Integrated design principles to guide new planning and community retrofits
We focused on the commute for 60 years..
…and built car-dependent suburbs
The steady expansion of auto-dependent communities Single Detached Homes Constructed vs. Automobile Sales Source: CANSIM Series #V15819065, Statistics Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales 63 ‐ 007 ‐ XWE 6.0 2.0 es Constructed 1.8 mobiles Sold 5.0 1.6 1.4 4.0 1.2 1 2 le Detached Home n) ) Number of Autom (Million (Million 3.0 1.0 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.4 1.0 N Singl 0.2 0.0 0.0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Car Sales Single Detached Homes
Where seniors live (2001) City Type Housing Type Apartments Semi ‐ detached 28% / Townhomes Rural Areas 10% 23% 23% Urban Areas Urban Areas (100,000 or (less than Single ‐ Detached more) more) 100 000) 100,000) Homes 60% 17% 61% Mobile Homes 1% Source : Statistics Canada, 2001
“Seniors in training” Young-old Category Old-old Old Four key age cohorts 55-64 65-74 75-84 Age 85+
Defining Mobility “The freedom to move is life itself” - L. Ling Suen L Ling Suen * The ability to travel where and when we want * * Having enough information about our travel options * * Knowing how to use those options * * Having the means to pay for those options * g p y p
Putting aging into context: The mobility continuum
The quality of mobility Group with The The The lack of intermediate “mobility rich” mobility rich “mobility poor” mobility poor resources group Increasing age High outdoor Low outdoor mobility and mobility and satisfaction dissatisfaction with mobility with mobility with mobility with mobility Source: The MOBILATE Project
The Demographic Tsunami 0.67 billion over 60 today, heading to 1.5 billion by 2050 45 2005 40 2035 35 ge (%) 30 Percentag 25 20 15 10 10 5 0 Italy Japan Germany Greece Begium Spain Portugal UK Ukraine France Country Source: UN 2006 Population Revision Database
Canada’s demographics Aging population will see 65+ more than double from 4.1 to 8.7 million in next 25 years Source: “Canada’s Aging Population” by Health Canada and the Interdepartmental Committee on Aging and Seniors Issues, 2002
The Demographic Tsunami 1961 1 Canadian in 14 is 65+
The Demographic Tsunami 2006 1 Canadian in 8 is 65+
The Demographic Tsunami 2026 1 Canadian in 5 is 65+
The Demographic Tsunami 2031 1 Canadian in 4 is 65+
How is Canada aging? Projected Population for Canada by Age Group in 2031 3 000 00 3,000.00 2,500.00 1000s) 2,000.00 Population (1 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0.00 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 r 4 e 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 o v o o o o o o o o o o t 0 t t t t t t t t t d 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n n 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 a 0 0 1 Age Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo23c.htm
How is Canada aging? In 2031, there will be 1.12 million Canadians over the age of 85 The combined populations of: The combined populations of: Québec City, QC Victoria, BC St. John’s, NFLD 715 000 715,000 330 000 330,000 181,000 + +
A perspective on Edmonton • % of seniors in City proper higher than region • There will be many more older Edmontonians There will be many more older Edmontonians – Between now and 2030: Age Total G Growth th 65-69 129% 70-74 70 74 141% 141% 75-79 140% 80 84 80-84 136% 136% 85+ 158% These numbers are based on City of Edmonton forecasts (Applications Management Consulting Ltd., 2005).
More older drivers who have greater expectations of mobility Number of Licensed Drivers by Gender and by Age, 2004 Age Group Males Females Total 55 – 64 1,545,737 1,516,675 3,062,412 65 + 1,424,635 1,354,074 2,778,709 Source: Canadian Motor Vehicle Traffic Collision Statistics, 2004
More older drivers than ever before • Accident rates decrease 65+ but historically so do kilometers driven • Accident rates & fatalities per km driven increase for 75+ • Fatal accident rate increases dramatically for 75+ • Older drivers account for higher proportion of all traffic fatalities • Projected fatalities for senior women drivers on the increase Projected fatalities for senior women drivers on the increase Source: US Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, 2004
Driving as an assumed “right” or privilege? • Driving is efficient, convenient and easy • Symbolizes competence, self-efficacy and i d independence d • Most seniors stop driving years before they die • Most self-regulate • Most self-regulate
Consequences of losing license • Functional – competence to access other means of mobility • Emotional – related to sense of self, quality of life E ti l l t d t f lf lit f lif • Balance between independence and engagement drastically altered drastically altered
What kind of accidents are seniors involved with? • Left turns against traffic • Missed signals and signs • Failure to yield right of way y g y • Intersection collisions
Mental challenges for older drivers Increased stresses for older drivers • Operational decisions • Tactical decisions • Strategic decisions “Functional deficits” increase as people age • Reaction times are slower Reaction times are slower • Harder to multi-task • Processing information more difficult as memory loss occurs
Problems faced by older drivers • Impaired attention • Less efficient working-memory COGNITIVE • Reduced reaction times • Slower ability to process information • L Loss of limb strength, flexibility, sensitivity or f li b t th fl ibilit iti it PHYSICAL range of motion • Coordination/dexterity
Problems faced by older drivers • • Increased sensitivity to glare Increased sensitivity to glare • Adjustment from light to dark • Decreased useful field of view (UFOV) • Decreased ability to change focus VISION • Harder to distinguish objects of similar colour • Harder to judge distances of other vehicles & their speed • Less efficient visual search • Hearing deficits in 75% of those 75+ HEARING • Decreased ability to respond to auditory cues
Driving with Dementia By 2028 in Ontario there will be more than 98,000 drivers with dementia - of all activities in daily life that are adversely affected by dementia, driving is the deadliest g •Researchers propose improved access and subsidies for specialized on-road testing •Increased support and transportation alternatives to cope with not driving •Increased support and transportation alternatives to cope with not driving •Research into better tools for office-based driving assessment •Improved physician education about dementia recognition and driving assessment
Legal responsibilities & impacts • DMV makes decision to revoke drivers licenses • In Ontario tests required at age 80 - in Alberta, medical report and eye test O for drivers 75+ • In-car testing only for marginal cases • Physicians in most provinces have duty to report drivers at risk • Physicians share liability when they fail to report • Medical model of fitness to drive makes physicians arbiters of public safety
Transit not always an option for older citizens • Walk to vehicle pickup under all weather conditions • Board, remain standing, or be seated • Handle fare payment plans, rules, and options p y p p PHYSICAL • Grasp stanchions or carry packages • Transfer between vehicles and modes • Enter and exit vehicle rapidly • Recognize directions, landmarks and destination COGNITIVE • • Comprehend spoken or written directions and recognize destinations Comprehend spoken or written directions and recognize destinations • H Hear directions and announcements di ti d t SENSORY • See vehicle route number signs and destination
Life as an older pedestrian can be hazardous Pedestrian Fatalities per 1000 people - Canada, 2001 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.0 per 1000 2.5 Fatalities p 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0 5 0 8 0.8 0.8 0 8 0.5 0.5 0.0 00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group Source: Statistics Canada, Pedestrian Fatalities and Injuries, 1992-2001
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