Overview of the US NRC Collaborative Research Program to Assess - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Overview of the US NRC Collaborative Research Program to Assess Tsunami Hazard For Nuclear Plants on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts A.M. Kammerer, U.S. ten Brink and V.V. Titov Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E. 14 th WCEE Paper 15-007 1

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NRC Tsunami Research Program • NRC – funding agency – managing coordination with research partners – integrating research into other US efforts • USGS – developing source database and localized modeling for screening – Developing PTHA methodology • NOAA – global modeling 3

NRC RESEARCH Pacific Coast Atlantic Hawaii Coast Gulf Coast 4

Research Goals • Better understanding for all US coasts • Development of a source database • Integration of landslide modeling • Determination of probable maximum tsunami (PMT) hazard levels (deterministic) • Determination of 10,000 year hazard levels through PTHA (probabilistic) 5

Magnitude/frequency of tsunami sources 1 Distant Earthquakes 10 NRC Recurrence Interval (yr) ≡ (annual probability of exceedence) -1 Seismic 100 Hazard Local Earthquakes 1000 Volcanoes Landslides 10000 Asteroid Impact 1 10 100 1000 Size of Tsunami (m) Power et al., 2005 6

Tsunami Sources • Near field landslides – Atlantic and Gulf continental shelves • Far field landslides – Canary Islands – Glaciated margins of northern Europe and Canada (Storegga landslide, Norway, Eastern Scotian margin, 1929 Grand Banks landslide) • Near field seismic – (US Pacific Coast Only) • Far field seismic – West of Gibraltar (Lisbon 1755 source) – Caribbean Seismic Zones 7

Tsunamigenic Landslide Potential 8

Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling 9

Additional interpretation of data, basic modeling (also published in Marine Geology special publication) annie.kammerer@nrc.gov 10

Modeling of Sources Caribbean Plate 11

Modeling Caribbean Sources 12

Puerto Rico Trench 13

Currituck Landslide 14

Currituck Landslide 15

Currituck Landslide Modeling Details Bottom Friction 16

NOAA Modeling • NOAA to use UGSG source information to add landslide capability to global (MOST) model • NOAA modeling addresses “ linear ” part of PMT and PTHA analyses • Site-specific inundation modeling performed separately 17

Canary Islands 18

PTHA • PTHA = Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments • Focus of significant US research efforts • Techniques analogous to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which are the basis of US NRC seismic hazard guidance 19

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Thio, Somerville and Polet 20

Questions 21