Belarus: country focus ETF’s Statistics Team Torino Process Dissemination Event | 03.12.2019 | RIPO, Minsk
FOCUS AREAS • Demographics and Ageing • Economy and Employment • Education and Human capital 2
CHALLENGING POPULATION DYNAMICS 10.00 90.0% 9.90 80.0% 78.6% 9.80 70.0% 74.7% 9.70 60.0% 9.60 50.0% 9.50 40.0% 9.40 30.0% 9.30 20.8% 14.9% 20.0% 9.20 10.0% 9.10 9.00 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total (in millions) Youth (% of total) Urban (% of total) Fig 1: Total Population, Youth & Urban Shares in Belarus (2010-2018) 3 Source : Belstat & WDI
REBOUNDING GROWTH RATES… 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.5 -4.0 -3.8 -5.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Fig 2: GDP growth rates in Belarus (2015-2018) 4 Source : Belstat
…WITH A DOMINANT SERVICE SECTOR 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Agriculture Industry Services Fig 3: Gross value added in economic sectors in Belarus (2015-2018) 5 Source : % UNESCO
TRANSFORMATIONS IN SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT 70.0 60.9% 55.4% 60.0 50.0 34.2% 40.0 29.8% 30.0 20.0 10.4% 9.3% 10.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Agriculture Industry Services Fig 4: Employment (%) by broad economic sectors in Belarus (2010-2018) 6 Source : Belstat
INCREASING EMPLOYMENT RATES… 88.0 86.3% 86.0 84% 84.0 83.1% 82.0 82.2% 80.0 80.7% 78.0 76.0 75.5% 74.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Male Female Fig 5: Employment (%) in Belarus (2010-2018) 7 Source : Belstat; Administrative data
ENHANCED LABOUR FORCE… at most compulsory (ISCED 0-2) upper/post-secondary (ISCED 3-4) tertiary (ISCED 5-8) 34.1 54.3 47.2 44.2 18.7 1.5 BY EU Fig 6: Labour force (aged 15+) by education level (2018) 8 Source : Belstat
…DUE TO HIGH EDUCATION OUTCOME Total Men Women 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 BY EU Fig 7: Tertiary education attainment (% 30-34 years old) in Belarus & EU (2018) 9 Source : Belstat
…AS A RESULT OF HIGH SPENDING IN EDUCATION 25.0 17.9% 20.0 15.0 10.0 4.9% 5.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % of GDP % of total public expenditure Fig 8: Public expenditure in education in Belarus (2018) 10 Source : Belstat
GOOD EDUCATION & LABOUR OUTCOMES… Total Men Women Total Men Women 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 BY EU BY EU Fig 10: Not in employment, education or training Fig 9: Early leavers from education (% 18-24) in Belarus & EU (2018) (NEETs - % aged 15-24) in Belarus & EU (2018) Source : Belstat Source : Belstat 11
HIGH BUT DECREASING NUMBER OF VET STUDENTS… 120,000 Total Men Women 110,000 60 Total 100,000 -27.3% 50 90,000 80,000 40 70,000 Male -26.7% 60,000 30 50,000 Female 40,000 -28.1% 20 30,000 20,000 10 10,000 0 0 BY EU 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Fig 11: VET students (%) at upper secondary level in Belarus & EU (2018) Fig 12: VET students (%) at upper secondary level in (2010-2018) Source : Belstat Source : Belstat 12
POVERTY, INEQUALITY & HUMAN CAPITAL 30.0 0.90 Inequality 27.2 0.85 25.4 25.0 0.80 20.0 HDI 0.75 15.0 0.70 0.65 10.0 Poverty 0.60 7.3 5.9 5.0 0.55 0.0 0.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Poverty (% pop) GINI Human Development Index Fig 13: Public expenditure in education in Belarus (2011-2017) 13 Source : Belstat for poverty; WDI for Gini and HDI
MAIN MESSAGES Demographics and Ageing : • Declining youth population as a result of unfavourable population trends Economy and Employment • Rebounding economy in search of sustainable growth rates • Increasing employment rates in a mainly industry and service based economy Education and Human capital • Favourable education outcomes leading to enhanced human capital • High but decreasing numbers of VET students 14
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