Assessment of GHGs and SLCPs emissions projections in Asia based on - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 21 th AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES 13-14 January 2015 Assessment of GHGs and SLCPs emissions projections in Asia based on SSP scenarios by using AIM/Enduse[Global] Tatsuya Hanaoka Center for Social and Environmental Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies 0

AIM models for GHG mitigation analyses Model Variable Database Simple Climate Emission Models Global scale AIM/Impact[Policy] Global emission pathways to climate stabilization Province/City scale National scale Temperature change Economic Model AIM/CGE [Subnational] AIM/CGE[National] AIM/CGE[Global] (Dynamic Impact Response Optimization function Type) Technological efficiency, Technological efficiency, Technological efficiency, mitigation potentials & costs mitigation potentials & costs mitigation potentials & costs Macro-economic Macro-economic Macro-economic driving forces driving forces driving forces Bottom-up Water Model AIM/Enduse [Subnational] AIM/Enduse[National] AIM/Enduse[Global] (Dynamic Agriculture Optimization Type) Technological efficiency, Technological efficiency, mitigation potentials & costs mitigation potentials & costs Human Health AIM/Extended AIM/Extended etc. Accounting Snapshot [Subnational] Snapshot [National] Model (Static Balanced Impact & Adaptation AIM/Energy AIM/Energy Type) Snapshot [Subnational] Snapshot [National] Models Activities & Service demands (Industrial productions, Transport volumes, Population dynamics, Waste generations, etc) 3E(Energy-Environment-Economic) Database Population & Macro Agriculture Energy Resource DB Energy DB Material Cement Household Economic Production & Stock & Flow Production Dynamics Frame Trade Coal Oil Gas Energy price Household Steel Geo- Emission Transport Municipal Nuclear Hydro thermal factor account & Input-Output Production Demand Solid Waste Lifestyle & Trade Electricity Solar Wind Biomass price etc. Element & Transition Models etc.

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018) Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models. Theme 2: Integrated model Theme 1: Air quality change event Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate and future scenarios analysis & environment ・ Global socio-economic scenarios ・ Analysis on regional AQ change ・ Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG ・ National & regional emissions ・ Development of emission inventory ・ Assessment of health, agriculture, scenarios ・ Inversion algorithms of emission water cycle, sea level rise ・ Urban & household emissions AQ estimation assessment Improved emission inventory SLCP emissions scenarios Regional Emission Integrated Climate and SLCP, AP, GHG emissions REAS Inventories and Assessment Environment Inventory Based on SSP scenario Chemical Transfer Model Model (AIM) Model Assessment of activities/policies Feedback of impacts Chemical transfer model and AIM/Enduse model Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation emission inventory in Asia Socio-economical & emissions scenario Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive) Regional Stakeholders strategy Society Science Policy makers ⇅ Information transmission Model improvement System utilization Experiment setup CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET Global MDG ・ SDG ・ Future Earth Database development Proposal and assessment of climate and strategy Metric definitions air pollution policies 2

AIM/Enduse[Global] - Target Gases and Sectors - CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCs SO2 NOx BC OC PM10 PM2.5 CO NH3 VOC Hg Fuel ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ combustion Industrial ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ process ✔ ✔ ✔ Agriculture ✔ ✔ Waste ✔ Fuel mining Note ) Emission factors are set by energy, sector and region over time. ✔ ✔ ✔ Others Mitigation measures listed in the following sectors are considered in the AIM/Enduse[Global] model Sector Sub sectors whose mitigation actions are considered in Enduse model (other subsectors are treated as scenario) Power generation Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, Renewable (Wind, Biomass, PV) Iron and steel ， Cement Industry Other industries （ Boiler, Motor etc ） Passenger vehicle, Truck ， Bus ， Ship, Aircraft ， Passenger train ， Freight train (except for pipeline Transportation transport and international transport) Residential & Commercial Cooling, Heating, Hot-water, Cooking, Lighting, Refrigerator, TV Agriculture Livestock rumination, Manure management, Paddy field, Cropland MSW Municipal solid waste, Fugitive emission from fuel Fugitive By-product of HCFC-22, Refrigerant ， Aerosol, Foams ， Solvent, Etching ， Aluminum production, Fgas emissions Insulation gas, others. 3

Base-Year Calibration and Regional Classification [Base-Year] : 2010 24 regions in Asia in REAS inventory  Base-Year emissions in Asia are calibrated REAS name AIM/Enduse[Global name CHN China CHN China close to REAS(Regional Emissions Inventory TWN Taiwan XEA Other East Asia JPN Japan JPN Japan in Asia) PRK N.Korea XEA Other East Asia  Base-Year emissions in Annex I countries are KOR S.Korea KOR Korea MNG Mongolia XEA Other East Asia BRN Brunei XSE Other South-east Asia calibrated close to UNFCCC official national MMR Myanmar XSE Other South-east Asia KHM Cambodia XSE Other South-east Asia inventory IDN Indonesia IDN Indonesia  Base-Year emissions in all other countries are LAO Laos XSE Other South-east Asia MYS Malaysia MYS Malaysia calibrated close to EDGER4.2 PHL Philippines XSE Other South-east Asia SGP Singapore XSE Other South-east Asia (note: EDGER4.2 provides only up to 2008) VNM Vietnam VNM Viet Nam THA Thailand THA Thailand [Regional Classification ] AFG Afghanistan XSA Other South Asia  AIM/Enduse[Global] aggregates 32 regions in BGD Bangladesh XSA Other South Asia BTN Bhutan XSA Other South Asia the world and 12 regions in Asia. LKA Sri Lanka XSA Other South Asia IND India IND India  Correspondence of sectoral classification and MDV Maldives XSA Other South Asia NPL Nepal XSA Other South Asia regional classification between REAS and PAK Pakistan XSA Other South Asia AIM/Enduse[Global] is carefully checked. Annex I (exact) OECD JPN (Japan) USA (United States) CAN (Canada) KOR (Korea) (approx) AUS (Australia) XE15 (Western EU-15) TUR (Turkey) MEX (Mexico) NZL (New Zealand) XE10 (Eastern EU-10) XEWI (Other Western EU in Annex I) BRA (Brazil) RUS (Russia) XE2 (Other EU-2) XEEI (Other Eastern EU in Annex I) ARG (Argentine) CHN (China) XSA (Other South Asia) XENI (Other EU) XLM (Other Latin America) ZAF (South Africa) IND (India) XEA (Other East Asia) XCS (Central Asia) IDN (Indonesia) XSE (Other South-East Asia) XOC (Other Oceania) XAF (Other Africa) Global 32 regions 4 ASEAN THA (Thailand) MYS (Malaysia) VNM (Viet Nam) XME (Middle East) (exact)

Overview of AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models Energy Resource DB Energy mining sector Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Primary Energy Supply energy sector Solar Wind Biomass Steel Production Crude steel Iron and steel Socio-economic & Trade Model production sector scenario Cement Cement Cement Production Model production sector Electricity Value added Other industries of 2nd industry sector Solid fuel GHG emissions in Asia (Gt CO2eq) 35 30 25 Population & Transport volume Liquid fuel 20 15 (Passenger) Energy Household number 10 Transportation Transport 5 Gas fuel balance 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Demand Model sector Transport volume Emissions Heat (Freight) Hydrogen Energy service Macro GDP & (Residential) Economic Household Building Sector value added frame Model Lifestyle Model sector Energy service (Commercial) Municipal Solid Municipal solid Solid waste Waste Model waste generation management sector Agricultural Prod Agricultural Agriculture & Trade model production sector Fluorocarbon Fluorocarbon Fluorocarbon Emission Model emission sector Macro-economic model Service demand models Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse) Energy Technology DB DB Energy price Cost Efficiency Variable Model Database Emission 5 Lifetime Diffusion rate factor

SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) (O’Neill, 2012) Source) http tps://s ://secure.i .iiasa.a .ac.a .at/w t/web-app apps/ene/ ene/SspD pDb/ b/dsd?A d?Action= on=htmlpag page& e&page= page=abou bout Example of how to translate narrative scenarios to quantitative scenarios in this study  Using basic socio-economic data (GDP, POP, GDP per capita) provided by SSP  Changing energy compositions constraints (e.g. Coal power plant remains more such as SSP3, SSP5 > SSP2 > SSP1, SSP4. Renewables can be introduced more such as SSP1, SSP4>SSP2> SSP3, SSP5 )  Changing level of GHG mitigation technology implementations (e.g. Payback period is longer such as SSP1 > SSP2,SSP4,SSP5 > SSP3 due to increasing environmental awareness.)  Changing level of Air Pollutants mitigation technology implementations (e.g. Higher policy pushes and pollutions are more controlled such as SSP1 > SSP2,SSP4,SSP5 > SSP3. ) 6