Asian American Voices in the 2016 Election OCTOBER 5, 2016 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Asian American Voices in the 2016 Election OCTOBER 5, 2016 Karthick Ramakrishnan, Director Janelle Wong, Taeku Lee, and Jennifer Lee, co-Principal Investigators #NAAS2016 @naasurvey @karthickr @JLeeSoc @Taeku_Lee @ProfJanelleWong

Key Facts About the AAPI Electorate – Since 2000, the number of Asian American voters grew by 620,000 in each presidential cycle – Since 2000, the number of Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) eligible voters has grown by more than 1.2 million in each presidential cycle – AAPIs are the fastest-growing population in the country—growing 46% and 40% between 2000 and 2010, respectively – The rapid growth of AAPIs continues today; between 2010 and 2015, the growth rates were 18% and 12%, respectively – AAPIs are growing even faster in states such as Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia – AAPIs are 5% or more of the eligible voter population in 9 states – Hawaii, California, Nevada, Washington, New Jersey, New York, Alaska, Maryland, and Virginia Source: AAPIData.com Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Key Findings from the Fall 2016 Survey (1 of 2) – The Democratic Party advantage among Asian Americans has grown since 2012 – Compared to the national average, Asian American registered voters hold more favorable views of Obama and Clinton, and much more unfavorable views of Trump – 55% of Asian American registered voters intend to vote for Clinton, 14% for Trump, 8% for some other candidate, and the remaining undecided – After taking into account undecideds who lean towards each candidate, we project an Election Day Clinton advantage over Trump of 70% to 20%, with 10% for other candidates – Clinton is on track to match or beat Obama’s performance in 2012, when he won a record share of the Asian American electorate Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Key Findings from the Fall 2016 Survey (2 of 2) – Asian American registered voters rank the economy, national security, racism, government, and immigration as the most important problem facing the country – Health care and education are important personal concerns – Asian Americans hold progressive views on many policy issues, including health care, education spending, racial justice, and bans on Muslim immigrants – However, they are split on Syrian refugees and are conservative on marijuana legalization – Ethnic media is an important source of information for particular Asian groups – There is pressing need for Asian American voter outreach, especially given the reported lack of contact by parties and candidates Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Methodology – 2,238 telephone interviews of Asian American adults conducted between August 10 and September 29, 2016 – Listed samples available from Catalist using registered voter and commercial vendor samples and classified for ethnicity by name, listed race where applicable, and tract-level ethnic concentration – Data reported for 1,694 Asian American registered voters – Overall margin of error (includes design effect): 3.5% – Landline (72%) and cell phones (28%) – Six largest national origins, plus Southeast Asian groups – Chinese (281), Asian Indian (274), Filipino (201), Korean (286), Vietnamese (295), Japanese (147), Hmong (151), Cambodian (59) – Data weighted by ethnicity and gender, age, state of residence, education, and nativity (raking method) Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Party Identification

Party identification, without leaners Republican Nonpartisan Democrat Refused – Question: “Generally speaking, do you usually Total 16% 41% 41% think of yourself as a {ROTATE} Republican, a Asian Indian 7% 37% 53% Democrat , an Independent, or in terms of some other Cambodian 24% 28% 48% party?” – More than twice as many Chinese 7% 61% 30% registered voters self- identify as Democrat as Filipino 25% 31% 41% Republican Hmong 4% 36% 60% – In 2008, 36% of Asian American registered voters Japanese 27% 23% 50% identified as Democrat, 19% as Republican, and Korean 24% 23% 53% 45% did not identify with either party Vietnamese 23% 47% 29% Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Party identification, by Age, Gender, and Nativity Republican Nonpartisan Democrat Refused Total Asian Am 16% 41% 41% Age 18-34 12% 43% 44% – Women and the native born are more likely to 35 or older 18% 40% 40% identify as Democrats – Men and foreign born are more likely to not identify with either party Male 17% 47% 35% – Millennial Asian Americans Female 16% 36% 46% are less likely to identify as Republican Native Born 16% 38% 45% Foreign Born 17% 43% 39% Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Party Leaners and Pure Independents among registered voters Lean Republican Pure Independent Lean Democrat – Question asked of those who do not identify as R or D: Total 7% 18% 16% “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Asian Indian 6% 14% 18% Party?” Cambodian 6% 20% 2% – In this group, about twice as many lean towards Chinese 11% 30% 21% Democrats vs. Republicans – A relatively high proportion Filipino 8% 13% 11% of Chinese Americans and Vietnamese Americans Hmong 1% 18% 17% remain “pure independents” – This indicates long-term shift Japanese 7% 7% 9% in Vietnamese American politics, and suggests a more Korean 3% 3% 17% recent shift in Chinese American party orientation Vietnamese 6% 25% 16% Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Identification among Nonpartisans/Independents Lean Republican Pure Independent Lean Democrat – Question asked of those who do not identify as R Total Asian Am 7% 18% 16% or D: “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Age 18-34 3% 15% 25% Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?” 35 or Older 19% 13% 9% – Millennial Asian Americans who are non-partisan lean much more towards Male 8% 21% 18% Democrats than Republicans Female 6% 15% 14% – In a similar vein, leanings towards the Democratic Party are much stronger for the native born than Native Born 3% 15% 20% the foreign born Foreign Born 9% 19% 14% Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Party identification, with leaners Republican Pure independent Democrat Refused Total 24% 18% 57% – This figure combines those who identify with the Asian Indian 13% 14% 71% Republican or Democratic Party, along with those Cambodian 26% 6% 68% non-identifiers who feel closer to either party Chinese 18% 30% 51% – Democrats hold more than a 2-to-1 average overall Filipino 33% 13% 52% among Asian Americans Hmong 6% 18% 76% – The Democratic Party advantage holds across all Japanese 34% 7% 59% ethnic groups, including Vietnamese Americans Korean 27% 3% 70% Vietnamese 29% 25% 45% Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Party identification, with leaners Republican Pure independent Democrat Refused Total Asian Am 24% 18% 57% – This figure combines those who identify with the Age 18-34 14% 15% 70% Republican or Democratic Party, along with those 35 or older 27% 19% 52% non-identifiers who feel closer to either party – Democrats hold more than a 2-to-1 average overall Male 25% 21% 53% among Asian Americans Female 22% 15% 61% – This advantage is stronger among millennials, women, and native born Asian Americans Native Born 19% 15% 65% Foreign Born 26% 19% 53% Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Favorability Ratings

Favorability Rating: Republican Party Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable No opinion Somewhat favorable Very favorable – The Republican Party is Total 32% 26% 13% 22% 7% viewed favorably by only 29% of Asian American registered voters, and Asian Indian 44% 27% 9% 16% 5% unfavorably by 58% Cambodian 40% 9% 5% 31% 16% – The party has the strongest unfavorability Chinese 29% 22% 18% 25% 6% rating among Asian Indians and Korean Americans Filipino 32% 21% 10% 23% 14% – Even among Vietnamese Americans, who have Hmong 30% 26% 10% 32% 2% traditionally voted Republican, the Republican Japanese 29% 33% 6% 29% 4% Party has a net unfavorable rating (51% unfavorable vs. Korean 26% 43% 9% 21% 3% 29% favorable) Vietnamese 23% 28% 20% 21% 8% Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey

Favorability Rating: Republican Party – About 29% of Asian Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable No opinion Somewhat favorable Very favorable American registered voters view the Republican Party Total Asian Am 32% 26% 13% 22% 7% favorably, and this finding is similar across age, gender, Age 18-34 37% 33% 3% 20% 7% and nativity 35 or older 29% 24% 17% 23% 8% – At the same time, the Republican Party is viewed much more unfavorably among millennial Asian Male 31% 28% 10% 23% 8% Americans than among those in older age groups Female 32% 25% 16% 21% 7% – In a similar vein, unfavorable views towards the Republican Party are stronger among the native Native Born 38% 30% 4% 20% 8% born than the foreign born Foreign Born 28% 24% 17% 23% 7% Fall 2016 National Asian American Survey