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AFRICA RENEWABLE ENERGY INITIATIVE AREI Transforming Africa to a renewable energy powered future with access for all Feb$2016 CONTEXT THE ENERGY ACCESS GAP Sh Share of population without Fu Future access situation: BAU el elec

  1. AFRICA RENEWABLE ENERGY INITIATIVE AREI Transforming Africa to a renewable energy powered future with access for all Feb$2016

  2. CONTEXT

  4. THE ENERGY ACCESS GAP Sh Share of population without Fu Future access situation: BAU el elec ectricity ac access sc scenario • Huge implications on human well-being and prospects for sustainable development

  5. IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY FOR AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL VALUE CHAIN (Simplified) Distribution Processing, and retail Production post-harvest (domestic and and storage export markets) ACTIVITIES Land Drying Infrastructure Preparation and transport Milling Fertilizing Pressing ICTs Crop protection Training Packing Harvesting/ Selling Storing threshing Energy supply mix: Electricity Mechanical power Fuels/thermal

  6. IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY FOR SMEs

  7. A HUGE ENERGY ACCESS GAP GIGAWATTS (GW) 700 Current growth based on 600 historic trends PIDA projektions at 6% growth/year Pathway to 100% access 500 ACCESS GAP 400 300 200 100 YEAR 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2015 2030

  8. A LOW TO ZERO CARBON FUTURE NECESSARY – ALSO FOR AFRICA Amount' Remaining: 275 275 Total'Carbon' GtC Budget: Amount'Used 790 790 187002011: GtC 515 51 GtC AR5,WGI,SPM

  9. AREI GOALS AND PRINCIPES

  10. GOALS OF THE AREI ENERGY ACCE CCESS… …CL CLIMATE help achieve the help African countries Sustainable Development leapfrog towards Goals, enhanced well- renewable energy being, and sound systems that support their economic development by low-carbon development ensuring universal access strategies while enhancing to sufficient amounts of economic and energy clean, appropriate and security affordable energy

  11. EXPECTED RESULTS ACR CROSS THE CO CONTINENT… MORE SPECI CIFICA CALLY Increase number of users • connected to the national grids or new mini-grids At least 300 GW of Increase share of RE of energy • new and additional consumption in productive installed capacity sectors: agriculture, industry, with an initial 10 and services GW by 2020 Increase in the share of • local/African firms providing RE equipment & supply on the continent

  12. CLOSING THE GAP Amount' Remaining: 275 275 Total'Carbon' GtC Budget: Amount'Used 790 790 187002011: GtC 51 515 GtC

  13. GUIDING PRINCIPLES Should contribute to achieving SD in Africa Must address Can promote the full the entire range of renewable African electricity applications, continent as well as non-electrical and benefit forms of energy all African countries. Can promote all Should boost kinds of renewable intra-regional energy cooperation technologies

  14. KEY FEATURES Country Ownership Enhanced Transformative private and and public sector programmatic engagement Multi-stakeholder Smart, modern participation and distributed social and renewable energy environmental systems of the safeguards future

  15. DISTRIBUTED, DECENTRALISED, PEOPLE-CENTERED ENERGY SYSTEMS OF THE FUTURE Amount' Remaining: 275 275 Total'Carbon' GtC Budget: Amount'Used 790 790 187002011: GtC 51 515 GtC

  16. DISTRIBUTED, DECENTRALISED, PEOPLE-CENTERED ENERGY SYSTEMS OF THE FUTURE Amount' Customer) Remaining: demand 275 275 Total'Carbon' Customer) GtC demand Budget: Amount'Used 790 790 Low)and)medium)voltage 187002011: GtC Customer) 515 51 demand GtC Customer) demand Customer) demand

  17. DISTRIBUTED, DECENTRALISED, PEOPLE-CENTERED ENERGY SYSTEMS OF THE FUTURE Island'grid'1 Island'grid'2 Amount' Customer) Remaining: demand 275 275 Customer) Total'Carbon' demand GtC Budget: Island'grid'3 Amount'Used 790 790 Island'grid'4 187002011: GtC Customer) demand 515 51 GtC Island'grid'5 Customer) demand Customer) demand

  18. DISTRIBUTED, DECENTRALISED, PEOPLE- CENTERED ENERGY SYSTEMS OF THE FUTURE Long>term)target:) Typical)demand)for)an) economically)prospering,)yet) energy>efficient)country Electricity)use)in) kWh)per)person) 8 000 “Old(electricity(world” “New(electricity(world” per)year Amount' Central,(big Distributed,(smaller Remaining: • Coal • Wind Nuclear PV)(some)CSP) • • 275 275 Total'Carbon' • Natural)gas • Biomass/>gas Traditional(way( New(alternatives GtC Natural)gas • to(fill(the(gap to(fill(the(gap Budget: Hydro • Amount'Used 790 790 187002011: GtC Island(grid(1 Island(grid(2 Customer) demand Customer) demand Customer) demand Customer) 51 515 demand Low)and)medium)voltage Actuals)today Island(grid(3 Customer) Island(grid(4 demand Customer) 1(500 GtC demand Range)of) Island(grid(5 Customer) Customer) Customer) demand African) demand demand Customer) demand countries (excl.)RSA) 50 Opportunity(for(the(African(continent(to(“leapfrog”(largeDscale,( central(power(system(directly(to(distributed(generation Sources:)gapminder;)CSIR)analysis

  19. AREI WORK AREAS

  20. ACTION PLAN DOCUMENT: CONTINOUSLY UPDATED AND REFINED Amount' Remaining: 275 275 Total'Carbon' GtC Budget: Amount'Used 790 790 187002011: GtC 51 515 GtC

  21. CLOSING THE GAP Amount' Remaining: 275 275 Total'Carbon' GtC Budget: Amount'Used 790 790 187002011: GtC 51 515 GtC

  22. CORE ACTIVITIES Amount' Remaining: 275 275 Total'Carbon' GtC Budget: Amount'Used 790 790 187002011: GtC 51 515 GtC

  23. CORE ACTIVITIES Amount' Remaining: 275 275 Total'Carbon' GtC Budget: Amount'Used 790 790 187002011: GtC 51 515 GtC

  24. Mapping and coordinating (1/5) • Thorough ma mapping of existing and proposed SDG 17 RE policies, regulations, and experiences. Building synergies • Determine the level of between effort, gaps and ef d priorities existing of the different RE and future initiatives. RE • Facilitate ex exchange e of Initiatives be best-pr practic ice po polic icie ies

  25. Strengthening Policy, Regulatory and Support (2/5) frameworks …to provide long- term investment security …to drive upgrades of …to enhance existing grids and domestic capacity for accelerated mini-grid RE component rollouts SDG$7 manufacturing …to expand use of non- electrical energy in …to improve energy productive efficiency across all applications energy applications

  26. Strengthening Policy, Regulatory and Support frameworks (2/5) • Ev Evaluate different kinds of po policy tools and incentives , including fe feed-in in tarif iffs • Evaluate particularly promising options or models …to provide for support of of off-gr grid and long-term mini-gr mi grids investment • Support countries in security determining int interna natio iona nal financial support ne fi needs. • Support countries in formulating bold funding pr propo posals to GC GCF

  27. Strengthening Policy, Regulatory and Support frameworks…to provide long-term investment security • Many renewables competitive with fossil fuels on life- time basis. • No fuel costs for renewables – almost all costs in initial construction ( hi high h capital costs = risky investments) • Developers/investors need security for both off-take and tariffs to dare make the investment. • Payment guarantees are therefore a key to unleash transformative change where huge numbers of households, communities, cooperatives, public institutions, SMEs and larger companies can invest

  28. MODELS OF TRANSFORMATIVE NATIONAL PAYMENT GUARANTEE PROGRAMMES TOWARDS 300 GW BEING DEVELOPED Country(A TG(=(Tariff(Guarantee National(grid [USD/MWh] CP(=(Connection(payment( [USD/customer(connection/month] Amount' Remaining: TG TG TG 275 275 TG Total'Carbon' GtC National Budget: Newly(established TG Grid(Operator island(grid Amount'Used 790 790 Value(of(RE 187002011: GtC 1)(Backing(of(national( 2 1 tariff(and(off8take(guarantee Supra9National( 515 51 National(RE(Agency 1 RE(Fund 2)(Top8up(payment GtC TG((sliding) On8grid:((TG(8 value)( Island(grid:((TG(+(CP(8 value) CP 3 Value of(island(grid 2 Island(Grid(Operator

  29. Strengthening Policy, Regulatory and Support frameworks (2/5) • Support co country assessment of existing grid-infrastructure, with ident id ntif ific icatio ion, n, prio iorit itiz izatio ion n and nd co cost es estimations . • Enable African vi visionary lo longer- …to drive te term planning of new smart grid upgrades of systems existing grids • Enable int interna natio iona nal fina inanc ncia ial and accelerated support for ambitious grid su extension and upgrades. mini-grid rollout • Evaluate existing and emerging bu business models and support schemes for mi minigrid development and enable funding for such incentives.

  30. Strengthening Policy, Regulatory and Support frameworks (2/5) • credit to Provide se seed capital and cr meet demands for productive applications of non-electrical energy products and services. …to expand use • Promote cooperation (including of non-electrical South-South) for scale-up of the energy in mo most promi mising non-el elec ectrical en ener ergy tec echnologies es productive applications • Engage African countries in lo long- te term planning of their renewable energy systems and the ph phasing in/ in/out of renewable energy technologies over time

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