AIM is paving the way to Low Carbon Asia UNFCCC COP19 November - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM is paving the way to Low Carbon Asia UNFCCC COP19 November 2013 Warsaw Shuzo NISHIOKA ( LoCARNet / IGES ）

How ? How ?

AIM: Asia Integrated assessment Model Applied to Japanese Low Carbon Policy making • 1997 Kyoto Target setting of 6% reduction in 2010 • 2008 PM. Fukuda Target of 2050 60-80% reduction at G8 • 2009 PM. Aso Target setting for La’quila G8 summit • 2009 PM. Hatoyama Target of 25% reduction in 2020 • 2012 Climate policy after Fukushima 3

(above the pre-industrial level) 5.0 25 温室効果ガス排出量 ( 二酸化炭素換算： GtC/ 年 ) GHG emissions (Gt-Ceq) BaU Global GHG emissions Temperature raise 4.0 20 BaU (global average) Temperature raise 気温上昇 (1990 年 =0.6 ℃ ) 650 3.0 15 550 500 2.0 10 475 GHG475ppm 650 550 1.0 5 50% GHG: Greenhouse gases 500 reduction 0.0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 年 年 Year Year BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm How to set world reduction target ? • to avoid temperature rise of 2 ℃ from pre-industrial era, 50% GHG reductions in 2050 is required Calculated by AIM/Impact [policy] Model: NIES http://2050.nies.go.jp

Japan’s long- term reduction target ? 1800 2050 60 － 80% reduction needed 1600 Target 2 -2.6 ℃ 1400 Climate sensitivity 1.5-3.0 Burden sharing -C&C 1200 1000 Mt-CO2eq 18 ％～ 44 ％ reduction 800 60 ％～ 80 ％ reduction 600 From 2000 70 ％ cut 400 200 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Calculated by AIM End-use Model

How much reduction potential each sector has ? 0 100 200 300 400 (Mtoe) 70 ％ CO 2 reduction Passenger Freight feasible 2000 I ndustry Household transport transport Business Smart consumer 2050 Scenario A choices can reduce Reduced energy demand energy consumption by as much as 2050 40-45 ％ reduction Scenario B 40-45% ! Passenger Freight Industry Household Business transport transport Equal effort by demand & - 100 200 300 400 500 600 supply side (Mtoe) 2000 Coal Oil Gas Low carbon shift in Hydro primary energy 2050 Nuclear Use of centralized energy Scenario A sources via introduction of renewable energies 2050 Solar/ Use of distributed energy 一次エネルギー供給 Scenario B Wind Biomass Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Hydro Solar/Wind

AIM/Enduse[Japan] How much is the cost of reduction ? Feasible with Four sets of countermeasures to achieve the target of 2020 50,000 3) Carbin pricing Mechanism that reduction effort is 40,000 economically rewarding -Introduction of emission trading Sets of -Green tax, Environmental tax (international Marginal Abatement Costs (Yen/ktCO 2 ） competitivenss should be consideres) Measures C 30,000 1) Enhancement of Top Runner 20,000 High cost measures. Top energy efficiency in all sectors Requires - Enhancement of regulation appropriate policy - Introduction o f bench mark regulation Sets of 10,000 measures Measures B Marginal abatement Sets of 4) Mechanism to enhance technology costs are under ‐ 10,000 Measures A development and deployment certain level Strategic support for ‐ 20,000 -Enhanced RPS, Feed-in Tariff Negative -Green New Deal abatement costs. - Enhanced standard of energy saving building Economically 2) Visualization of countermeasure activities ‐ 30,000 feasilbe Information to encourage smart and rational choices - Labeling of GHG emissions ‐ 40,000 - Mechanism to make the choices economically feasible (e.g. combination with carbon offset). - Real time display of electric consumption 0 0 30,000 30,000 60,000 60,000 90,000 90,000 120,000 120,000 150,000 150,000 180,000 180,000 210,000 210,000 240,000 240,000 270,000 270,000 GHG reduction（ktCO 2 eq） 7

AIM: Asia Integrated assessment Model Applied to Japanese Low Carbon Policy making • 1997 Kyoto Target setting of 6% reduction in 2010 • 2008 PM. Fukuda Target of 2050 60-80% reduction at G8 • 2009 PM. Aso Target setting for La’quila G8 summit • 2009 PM. Hatoyama Target of 25% reduction in 2020 • 2012 Climate policy after Fukushima 8

Fukushima 3.11/2011 Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant

Innovative Energy /Environment Policy after Fukushima: June 2012 – October 2012 (Nation ‐ wide participatory process started) Established Energy and Environment Congress (2011/6/7) Electricity Cost Central Resource /energy Atomic Energy Verification Environment Council Commission Committee Council 5 th Energy and Environment Meeting (2011/12/21) determined the "Basic Policy" presented for the energy options Central Environment Atomic Energy Resource /energy Council Council Commission Formulate draft options of the Formulate draft options of the Formulate draft nuclear energy mix measures to cope with Global energy policy choices Warming 11 th Energy and Environment Meeting (2012/6/29) Presentation of options (three Scenarios) National debate about the “options" Energy and Environment Meeting (2012 summer) Determination of "innovative energy and environmental strategy" New Framework for New Measures against New Energy Basic Plan Nuclear Energy Policy global warming

Impact of Fukushima accident to policy on low ‐ carbon policy Potentials of CO2 reduction from 1990 1. Decline of national interest in climate change. 2020 2030 2050 target Year Nuclear energy is a single issue now 2. Option to decreasing nuclear power was Basic Law 25* ‐ 80 addressed. Under such conditions, the Conventional 15 ‐ 40** 80 potential reduction of CO2 emissions in Japan plan before 25** will be significantly reduced. (See table on Fukushima right) Options after 7 ‐ 23 ‐ 80 Fourth 3. Energy ‐ saving efforts under complete Fukushima 11** 25** Basic Plan for suspension of nuclear reactor increase the Environmental energy ‐ related knowledge and awareness of the people. Increased participation in *Included absorption ［ about 3.5 ］＋ overseas decision ‐ making and radicated energy ‐ saving procurement behaviour **Only domestic reduction 4. Industrial expansion to renewable energy and energy systems. Activation of local initiatives Need for policy transition: 5. Now possible to strengthen energy Review reduction targets and the plan conservation and renewable energy policy Promotion of energy ‐ saving and renewable (such as FIT) energy and greening Fuel conversion [gas shift] 6. Planning of basic energy policy with scientific Ensuring CO2 sinks procedures to be carried out in public. Promotion JCM(Joint credit Mechanism) [Consideration of options] Promoting bilateral partnership with Asian countries

Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon Scenarios Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world 2009/11 2010/11 2007/05 2009/11 2011/03 2009/10 2009/10 Shiga Kyoto Shiga Jilin Iskandar Putrajaya India Japan Japan Japan China Malaysia Malaysia 2010/10 2010/10,2012/10 2009/10,2012/02 2010/02,2012/09 2011/09,2012/11 2013/10 2011/10 Putrajaya Ahmedabad Bhopal Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Bangladesh India India 2013/03 2013/10 2013/07 2009/08,2012/11 2012/02 2013/05 2013/05 Malaysia Cyberjaya Iskandar Guangzhou Khon Kaen Korea Cambodia Malaysia Malaysia China Thailand 12

Growing importance of actions towards low-carbon development in Asia 1990 2008 2050 13 Source: Presentation by Dr. Mikiko Kainuma (Nov. 2011)

Applying IAM to the real policy process: The rad map o 2050 Different development path to low carbon world 20 1000 18 16 800 CO 2 and GHG Emissions (100 million tons CO 2 eq) 温室効果ガス GHGs 14 GDP (trillion yen) 12 600 ▲ 15% ▲15% （90 年比） (Compared to 1990 level) 10 ▲ 20% ▲20% （90 年比） (Compared to 1990 level) GDP ▲25% （90 年比） ▲ 25% 8 400 400 (Compared to 1990 level) Turning 6 Onset of financial crises Point 4 200 Oil crisis Japan’s asset-inflated 80% ▲80% Equal 2 Rapid economic “bubble economy” CO2 （90 年比） Reduction emissions/cap growth 0 0 （ 100 歳） （ 80 歳）（ 60 歳）（ 40 歳） （ 20 歳） （ 0 歳） (100 years old) (60 years old) (80 years old) (40 years old) (20 years old) (0 years old) 1) （ ）内の年齢は、各年に生まれた人が2050年を迎えたときの年齢 14 Future GDP: Based on scenarios A and B from the NIES Low Carbon Society Research Project 2050 14 2) GDPの将来値は国立環境研究所 脱温暖化2050プロジェクト A・Bシナリオの想定値

Opportunities for Asia: Freedom from past track of highly energy ‐ dependent technologies Long ‐ term trends in energy intensity (energy/GDP) Possibility of Asian countries’ Leapfrog leveraged by Climate Change ＊ Japan’s leap ‐ frog in Oil Crisis ＊ China/ASEAN ？ ＊ India ？ ＊ – How can we facilitate technological leap ‐ frogging to promote low carbon development? – What kinds of mechanisms (international/national, market/non market) could facilitate leap ‐ frogging to low carbon technologies? 15 15