Application of Logic and Decision Application of Logic and Decision Models in Models in Sustainable Ecosystem Sustainable Ecosystem Management Management Mark Jensen, USDA Forest Service, Northern Region Mark Jensen, USDA Forest Service, Northern Region Keith Reynolds, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station Keith Reynolds, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station Keith Reynolds, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station Keith Reynolds, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station Ute Langer, University of Montana Ute Langer, University of Montana Melissa Hart, University of Montana Melissa Hart, University of Montana (HICSS (HICSS – 42) 42)
Outline for Presentation Outline for Presentation Describe EMDS Assessment Models Present some R1 EMDS Assessment Models Models Describe EMDS Decision Models Display some R1 EMDS Decision Models
EMDS EMDS Ecosystem Ecosystem Management Management Decision Decision Decision Decision Support Support System System
Background Background Developed by PNW Station Developed by PNW Station Corporate USDA Corporate USDA – FS Software FS Software Maintained by U. of Redlands and Others Maintained by U. of Redlands and Others Maintained by U. of Redlands and Others Maintained by U. of Redlands and Others www.Institute.redlands.edu/emds www.Institute.redlands.edu/emds COOL STUFF! COOL STUFF!
Features Features Build knowledge bases for assessment with Build knowledge bases for assessment with Net Weaver Net Weaver Build decision models for landscape Build decision models for landscape restoration restoration (treatment) with Criterion Decision Plus (treatment) with Criterion Decision Plus (treatment) with Criterion Decision Plus (treatment) with Criterion Decision Plus Operates through GIS (ARCMAP Tool) Operates through GIS (ARCMAP Tool) Facilitates Facilitates Transparency Transparency and and Reproducibility Reproducibility in the evaluation of monitoring data and the in the evaluation of monitoring data and the identification of treatment areas ! identification of treatment areas !
EMDS Knowledge Bases EMDS Knowledge Bases Evaluate Multiple Propositions that are Evaluate Multiple Propositions that are Hierarchically Designed (i.e., from the top Hierarchically Designed (i.e., from the top down where they end with data elements) down where they end with data elements) A Proposition is “Something that can be A Proposition is “Something that can be believed or denied based on the degree to believed or denied based on the degree to believed or denied based on the degree to believed or denied based on the degree to which it is true or which it is true or false” given all false” given all antecedent network conditions antecedent network conditions Uses “ Fuzzy Membership Functions” to Uses “ Fuzzy Membership Functions” to Interpret Data Interpret Data
How to interpret map symbology How to interpret map symbology EMDS is an extension to ArcMap EMDS is an extension to ArcMap -1 (ArcGIS), and its basic products are (ArcGIS), and its basic products are maps.. maps.. 0 Each map displays the strength of Each map displays the strength of Each map displays the strength of Each map displays the strength of +1 evidence (or level of support, as in evidence (or level of support, as in the legend to the left) for a specific the legend to the left) for a specific proposition. proposition.
Proposition YOU Are Large Height Weight
Evaluation of Proposition Evaluation of Proposition Weight Height True, if > 6ft. True, if > 6ft. True, if >200lbs True, if >200lbs False, if < 5ft. False, if < 100lbs
Fuzzy Single Ramp Function Fuzzy Single Ramp Function (for evaluating the proposition that watershed road density is low) (for evaluating the proposition that watershed road density is low) Watershed Road 10 F (-1) Density (-1) (mi/mi2) 1 T (+1) 25% 50% 75% 100% Cumulative Frequency Distribution
Proposition: Road Density and # Stream Crossings are Low Strength of Evidence for Proposition Kalispell No Support [-1] Very Low Support Coeur d'Alene (-1, -0.5] Low Support (-0.5, 0) Undetermined Undetermined Missoula [0] Moderate Support (0, 0.5] Strong Support (0.5, 1) Butte Full Support [1] State Boundary Cities 8 0 4 0 0 8 0 K il o m e t e r s Unit: subwatershed
Fuzzy Double Ramp Function Fuzzy Double Ramp Function (for evaluating proposition that old growth composition is within desired (for evaluating proposition that old growth composition is within desired range of conditions) range of conditions) T T +1 F -1 F 10 20 40 50 % Veg Composition
Proposition: Composition of Old-growth Forests on Lower Subalpine Biophysical Settings is Within Desired Range of Conditions Strength of Evidence for Proposition Kalispell No Support [-1] Very Low Support Coeur d'Alene (-1, -0.5] Low Support (-0.5, 0) Undetermined Undetermined [0] Missoula Moderate Support (0, 0.5] Strong Support (0.5, 1) Full Support Butte [1] State Boundary Cities 8 0 4 0 0 8 0 K il o m e t e r s Unit: ecological subsection
Some Watershed Integrity Proposition Some Watershed Integrity Proposition Examples Examples
Watershed & Aquatic Integrity (subwatersheds) Watershed Aquatic Condition Condition Threats Aquatic Species
Stream Watershed Condition Habitat Impaired Total Water Quality Vegetation Impaired (AND) Roads (%) (mi/mi 2 ) Components Upland Riparian Impaired Openings Openings Upland Density (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ( ) Riparian Density Habitat ( ) Seedling + Sapling Seedling + Sapling ( ) ( ) ( ) Stream Crossings Sediment (#/mile) Low Tree Cover Low Tree Cover ( ) ( ) ( ) Metals ( ) Temperature ( ) Other ( )
AQUATIC INTEGRITY is High
FISH SPP DIVERSITY is High
AQUATIC THREATS are Low
WATERSHED CONDITION is Good
Low Road Density and Stream Crossings
R1 Knowledge Base Design for the Evaluation R1 Knowledge Base Design for the Evaluation of Desired Conditions in Forest Planning of Desired Conditions in Forest Planning
Ecosystem Sustainability Ecosystem Sustainability Ecological Socioeconomic Ecosystem Threats Species Economic Social Diversity Diversity Diversity Diversity
NetWeaver model NetWeaver model Primary propositions Primary propositions # Sub # Sub- - # Data # Data (cartographic (cartographic proposition proposition links links base) base) s evaluated s evaluated evaluated evaluated Aquatic integrity Aquatic integrity Subwatershed condition is good Subwatershed condition is good 19 19 13 13 (subwatershed) (subwatershed) Fish species status is strong Fish species status is strong 8 8 8 8 Threats to subwatershed are low Threats to subwatershed are low 17 17 12 12 Terrestrial Terrestrial Vegetation ecosystem diversity is high Vegetation ecosystem diversity is high 156 156 76 76 integrity integrity Overview of Wildlife species habitat diversity is high Wildlife species habitat diversity is high 9 9 9 9 (ecological (ecological subsection) subsection) Threats to ecological subsection are low Threats to ecological subsection are low 19 19 13 13 NetWeaver logic Fire danger Fire danger Fire hazard is low Fire hazard is low 8 8 5 5 model designs (subwatershed) (subwatershed) Fire behavior is acceptable Fire behavior is acceptable 5 5 4 4 used to evaluate used to evaluate Fire regime is acceptable Fire regime is acceptable 4 4 3 3 Ignition risk is low Ignition risk is low 8 8 5 5 ecosystem sustainability. Social opportunity Social opportunity Potential for commercial uses is high Potential for commercial uses is high 6 6 5 5 spectrum spectrum Diversity of commercial uses is high Diversity of commercial uses is high 6 6 5 5 (subwatershed) (subwatershed) Primitive recreation opportunity is high Primitive recreation opportunity is high 5 5 5 5 Developed recreation opportunity is high Developed recreation opportunity is high 5 5 5 5 Recreation opportunity diversity is high Recreation opportunity diversity is high 5 5 5 5 Special area diversity is high Special area diversity is high 10 10 9 9 Infrastructure capacity is high Infrastructure capacity is high 24 24 17 17 Economic Economic Economic opportunity is high Economic opportunity is high 7 7 6 6 integrity integrity Overall jobs and income are high Overall jobs and income are high 6 6 4 4 (National Forest) (National Forest) Component jobs and income are high Component jobs and income are high 22 22 14 14
Selected results of NetWeaver evaluations Evidence that: A) subwatershed condition is good; B) road density and number of stream crossings within a subwatershed are low; C) composition of old-growth forests on lower subalpine forests on lower subalpine biophysical settings within an ecological subsection is within desired range of conditions; D) an ecological subsection has a high proportion of goshawk habitat; E) a subwatershed has high potential for developed recreation use; and F) a National Forest has high economic opportunities.
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