Anticipating Geostationary High Spectral Resolution Infrared Measurements Paul Menzel UW/CIMSS Contributions from Bob Aune, Liam Gumley, Jun Li, Jinlong Li, Bill Line, Jason Otkin, Ralph Petersen, Hank Revercomb, Tom Rink, Dave Santek, Tim Schmit, Bill Smith, Nadia Smith, Gary Wade, Elisabeth Weisz
Geo Sounding introduced in 1980 with the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) 12 Infrared Channels (1 Visible Channel) * NOAA sustained continuity of operational imaging services * NASA conducted the VAS Demonstration funded out of the Operational Satellite Improvement Program (OSIP) by implementing Transparent VAS Operations * Venetian blinding enabled the sounding demonstration (1/3 time share with operational imager, cancelled in RISOP)
Multispectral Probing of the Atmosphere The first VAS sounding Smith et al 1981
Nowcasting with VAS Hourly Total-Totals Index (degree Centigrade) on 20 July 1981 showed locations of subsequent severe convective storms. Thunderstorms (TRW) observed at 21 GMT are just beginning to appear at 18 GMT.
Operational GOES Sounder GOES-I had 18 broad • spectral bands Transition to FTS • sounder (GHIS) was to occur in GOES-L Seeking balance of • horizontal, vertical, and temporal resolutions
GOES-12 Sounder – Brightness Temperatures (Radiances) – 12 bands
GOES sounders provide regional coverage every hour Raob coverage 2x/day * all weather temperature and moisture profiles * wind profiles along ascent path Hourly coverage from two GOES- Sounders * radiances 4 to 15 um * clear sky temperature and moisture profiles * cloud amount and height * motion from moisture and cloud features
GOES Sounder derived T(p) & Q(p) in 3-4 km layers co-located GOES & balloon temperature & moisture soundings: GOES (black) smoothes the atmospheric profile compared to radiosonde (red)
Improving Depiction and Real-time Providing Predictions of Moisture Processes using Geo-Sounder Short-Range Precipitation skill remains poor • in the warm months Monitoring Moisture is critical, • Predicting Moisture flux is even more important Need to use both moisture and winds from IRS • Ideally, all IRS observations should be assimilated at full resolution (both spectrally, • spatially and temporally) into storm-scale mesoscale NWP models. This, however, is likely to be very expensive to accomplish, is decades away from completion and may be difficult to do in all member States. Alternatives tools, developed for GOES and SEVIRI, can be enhanced using IRS • sounding to help fill this information/development gap and provide forecasters with improved guidance tools in real time. 11 Petersen, Aune, Line
Filling the information Gap: NearCasting Model A Lagrangian trajectory model that dynamically projects GOES temperature • and moisture observations forward in time out to 9 hours. Built around under-utilized satellite moisture observations • Extends the use of GOES moisture data from observations to forecasts and • preserves the GOES data at full resolution without smoothing. Provides information about the moisture and stability structure of the pre- • convective environment 1-9 hours in advance This helps us to make predictions about where convection is most likely (and • least likely) to occur. Long time step (10-15 minutes) => quick run times (~minutes) => little • latency. Equations of motion do not include the highly non-linear advection terms. – Model updates whenever data becomes available (every hour). • Analyzes and forecasts the moisture and stability even after clouds form • 12
April 09, 2011 - Two Types of Convection Initial severe convection rapidly o developed in E Nebraska around 22z and moved through NW Iowa before dissipating quickly in NC Iowa. Second round of non-severe convection o developed in southern Minnesota around 02z and moved through central Wisconsin producing widespread heavy rainfall. 13
Evolving the Operational GOES Sounder * GHIS was cancelled * GIFTS was built, but never launched to be a NASA Sounder Demonstration for NOAA * HES feasibility study for GOES-R was deemed too risky * Simulations show hope for approaching Storm Scale Data Requirements
Local Forecast and Warnings - Storm Scale Requirements
Anticipating Geostationary High Spectral Resolution Infrared Measurements Paul Menzel UW/CIMSS Contributions from Bob Aune, Liam Gumley, Jun Li, Jinlong Li, Bill Line, Jason Otkin, Ralph Petersen, Hank Revercomb, Tom Rink, Dave Santek, Tim Schmit, Bill Smith, Nadia Smith, Elisabeth Weisz
Simulating the Geo-IRS perspective True GIFTS/HES/IRS Red = extreme instability Simulated Radar ABI/GOES Sounder like Jun Li, Jinlong Li, Jason Otkin, and Tim Schmit
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS Extreme instability indicated ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar 1300 UTC
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar 1400 UTC
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar 1500 UTC
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar 1600 UTC
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar Start to see extreme instability 1700 UTC 4 hours later
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar Extreme instability clearly 1800 UTC shown 5 hours later
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar 1900 UTC
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar 2000 UTC
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar Rain line shows in radar 8 hours later 2100 UTC
OSSE of GEO advanced IR sounder for storm nowcasting True GIFTS/HES/IRS Red = extreme instability ABI/GOES Sounder like Simulated Radar GIFTS/HES/IRS provides needed instability and warning information hours earlier than current GOES Sounder (+4-5 hrs) and Radar (+8 hrs)
28 Nearcasting Severe Weather using a Hyperspectral Environmental Sounder (~IRS) Simulated ABI (~SEVIRI) Simulated HES (~IRS) A WRF model simulation of the June 12, 2002 Weak gradients of low-level Theta-E IHOP case was used to generate simulated Strong low-level Theta-E gradients are indicated by ABI which has only are indicated by HES which can radiances from an Advanced Baseline Imager two water vapor channels. better detect low-level moisture. (ABI - left), a geostationary Hyper-spectral Environmental Sounder (HES - right), and simulated radar reflectivity (below). Temperature and moisture profiles were retrieved from the radiance datasets and assimilated by the CIMSS Nearcast Model and compared . HES provided more detailed vertical and horizontal Theta-E gradients. 5-hour NearCast prediction for 2000 UTC 5-hour NearCast prediction for 2000 UTC Low level Theta-E Simulated composite reflectivity from Low level Theta-E nature run indication the formation of convection. 5-hour NearCast prediction for 2000 UTC 5-hour NearCast prediction for 2000 UTC Convective Instability Convective Instability Rapid Development of Convection over Texas and Nebraska began between 2000 and 2100 UTC 12 June 2002 Simulated ABI Simulated HES
Introducing new Commercial Initiative
Factoring the Improvements from a Geo High Spectral Resolution IR Sounder
Anticipating Geostationary High Spectral Resolution Infrared Measurements Paul Menzel UW/CIMSS Contributions from Bob Aune, Liam Gumley, Jun Li, Jinlong Li, Bill Line, Jason Otkin, Ralph Petersen, Hank Revercomb, Tom Rink, Dave Santek, Tim Schmit, Bill Smith, Nadia Smith, Elisabeth Weisz
CO2 Lines 32
H2O Lines 33
High resolution IR spectra reveal rotational absorption lines 34
High resolution IR spectra reveal rotational absorption lines calculated versus measured spectra O3 H2O CO2
High resolution IR spectra fix spectral location of measurement Broad band-width uncertainty is alleviated On-line/off-line “signal” Longwave IR Window Region 36
“AIRS or IASI-like” Longwave IR Window Region 37
Longwave IR Window Region 38
Longwave IR Window Region 39
Longwave IR Window Region 40
Longwave IR Window Region 41
“Current GOES-like” Longwave IR Window Region 42
High resolution IR spectra show low level moisture gradients CrIS VIIRS
High resolution IR spectra reveal low level inversions x
Ability to detect inversions disappears with broadband observations (> 3 cm-1) 45
Twisted Ribbon Found in CO2 Spectrum Tropopause inversion causes off-line BTs to be less than on-line BTs 15 m CO2 Spectrum strat Blue between-line Tb warmer for tropospheric channels, tropopause colder for stratospheric channels trop Signature not available at low resolution 46
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