Annual Update and School Board Work Session February 11, 2020 Projections
Annual Update and Projections Agenda • Annual Update 6:30 • Discussion • 2019 10‐Year Projections 7:40 • Updating CIP Priorities • Discussion • Adjourn 9:00 www.apsva.us/engage 2
Annual Update Preparing for 2020‐21 Enrollment
Annual Update Options and Transfers Policy (J‐5.3.31) defines the Annual Update Reporting to the School Board Each fall, the Superintendent will update the School Board on enrollment levels at each school/program and transportation* and will make recommendations to achieve the goals stated in this policy. As a result of the annual update, the School Board may need to make adjustments to the policy and Arlington Public Schools may need to make adjustments to the implementation procedures. *Note: Transportation and Boundary Processes are scheduled to be provided as monitoring reports to the School Board later this spring, so this summary focuses on managing enrollment. 4
Annual Update: Cross‐Departmental Team Participants Contribution Principal groups Identify potential issues, opportunities within their schools Administrative Services Facilitates discussion with each of the principal groups Teaching & Learning Provides direction on: • New programmatic needs • Program moves that support identified students • Data on options & transfers (applications, lotteries, waitlists) Planning & Evaluation Provides data for planning (enrollment trends, projections, capacity, utilization rates) Facilities & Operations Advises on potential facility adjustments, coordinates reviews at schools as needed School & Community Relations Develops and disseminates information to external stakeholders Information Services Supports this work with data updates 5
Annual Update: Preparing for 2020‐21 Tools for Managing Enrollment Changes for 2020‐21 • Adding 4 at Abingdon Relocatable classrooms • Adding 4 at ASFS • Adding 2 at Kenmore • Dorothy Hamm M.S. Transfers to neighborhood schools • Yorktown H.S. • Maintaining numbers offered in 2019‐20 Option school classes/seats • Move PreK programs Under review • Under review Change how classrooms are used (i.e., converting computer labs to classrooms) • Adjusted timeline for announcing transfers concurrent with Adjust policy or procedures lottery notifications, informed by projections Note, the Annual Update reflects a snapshot of information available at the time when the report is presented to the School Board. APS will continue to adjust as needed. 6
Annual Update: Next Steps Participants Contribution Principals Prepare for change within school Facilities and Operations Plans for removal and installation of relocatables School & Community Relations Shares information with stakeholders Administrative Services Processes appeals Teaching & Learning Supports program transitions Process applications for options and transfers Planning & Evaluation Updates projections Finance & Management Services Updates budget with revised projections, which informs staffing Human Resources Works with schools to prepare for staffing needs Information Services Updates student data in Synergy to align with adjustments 7
Upcoming Capacity Planning Processes Timeframe Process • Review data that will be used for Fall 2020 Boundary Spring 2020 Processes • Adopt 2021‐30 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) • Adopt Elementary Schools Boundaries Fall 2020 • Adopt High Schools Boundaries Summer 2021 • Publish Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (AFSAP) • Adopt Middle Schools Boundaries Fall 2021 • Adopt 2023‐32 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) Spring 2022 8
APS as a School System Moving from a “system of schools” to a “school system”* • APS operates under a site‐based management model, which has a significant impact on the consistency of programming from school to school district‐wide. • It is important to strike a balance between decision‐making at each school and the cohesiveness and standardization required to ensure high‐quality service delivery across all schools. *Source: Evaluation of APS Services for Students with Disabilities and Those Requiring Intervention, Nov. 2019 www.apsva.us/wp‐content/uploads/2019/11/Evaluation‐of‐Services‐for‐Students‐with‐Disabilities‐and‐ Those‐Requiring‐Intervention‐FINAL.pdf 9
APS as a School System: Discussion Moving from a “system of schools” to a “school system” 1. How do we know when we’ve become a school system? 2. Are there lessons learned from this collaborative work? 3. What are the opportunities? 4. What are the challenges? 5. Are there other adjustments being made as a result of this work? 6. What can the School Board do to facilitate this work? 10
2019 10‐Year Projections
Timeline of Enrollment Projections Updates to School Board Timeframe Enrollment Projections Updates School Board Work Session: • September Presented the Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodations Plan (AFSAP) • 24, 2019 Provided early school capacity context for the upcoming FY 2021‐30 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) • Used Fall 2018 10‐year projections to measure school capacity Joint School Board/County Board Work Session: • December 3, Presented an update that included work by consultant and staff to recalibrate the county’s births 2019 forecast • Discussed the updated births forecast’s possible impact on enrollment projections New Enrollment Projections: • December 20, Published Fall 2019 10‐year projections for 2020‐21 through 2029‐30 • 2019 Incorporated the county’s updated births forecast Additional information The Sept. 24, 2019 and Dec. 3, 2019 presentations and the Fall 2019 10‐year enrollment projections can be found at, https://www.apsva.us/engage/afsapreport/ (under Additional Resources). All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape. 12
Current Enrollment in the Context of Past and Anticipated Trends APS Student Enrollment Snapshot Fall 2019 Projected Kindergarten Students * 2,500 2,320 Current Students (Sept. 30, 2019) ** 2,264 2,268 2,224 2,231 2,144 2,145 2,156 Recent Grade 12 Cohorts (Sept. of each year) ** 2,135 2,126 2,108 2,081 2,000 1,901 1,876 1,782 1,779 1,762 1,631 1,565 1,492 1,500 1,000 500 0 K 2022‐ K 2021‐ K 2020‐ K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 12th, 12th, 12th, 12th, 23 22 21 Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. '18 '17 '16 '15 *Source: Fall 2019 10‐Year Projections **Source: Membership reports for 2019 and previous years www.apsva.us/statistics/monthly‐enrollment/ All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape. 13
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